Mathematical models for evaluating anti-crisis management. The arbitration manager is a highly paid and sought-after type of professional activity.

Bankruptcy diagnostics is a system of targeted financial analysis aimed at identifying the parameters of the crisis development of an enterprise that generate the threat of its bankruptcy in the coming period.

Depending on the goals and methods of implementation, the diagnostics of the bankruptcy of an enterprise is divided into two main systems:

• 1) a system of express diagnostics of bankruptcy;
• 2) a system of fundamental diagnostics of bankruptcy.

The system of express diagnostics of bankruptcy provides early detection of signs of the crisis development of the enterprise and allows you to take prompt measures to neutralize them. Its preventive effect is most noticeable at the stage of a slight financial crisis of the enterprise.

The main objectives of the fundamental diagnostics of bankruptcy are:

• - deepening the results of assessing the crisis parameters of the financial development of the enterprise, obtained in the process of express diagnostics of bankruptcy;
• - confirmation of the obtained preliminary assessment of the scale of the crisis financial condition of the enterprise;
• - forecasting the development of individual factors that generate the threat of bankruptcy of the enterprise, and their negative consequences;
• - assessment and forecasting of the enterprise's ability to neutralize the threat of bankruptcy due to internal financial potential.

There are two main approaches to predicting bankruptcy.

The first is based on financial data and involves the operation of some coefficients: the increasingly famous Altman Z-factor (USA), the Taffler coefficient (UK), and others.

The second one starts from data on bankrupt companies and compares them with the corresponding data of the company under study.

In the West, the method of E. Altman, proposed by him in 1968, is widely used to predict the probability of bankruptcy. - multiple discriminant model that takes into account the action of the five most significant factors:

X 1 - liquidity indicator (working capital / total assets);

X 2 - profitability indicator (retained earnings / total assets);

X 3 - sustainability indicator (income before taxes and interest / total assets);

X 4 - solvency indicator (market value of shares / book value of debt obligations);

X 5 - activity indicator (sales volume / total assets).

The Altman model has the following form:

Z = 1.2X 1 + 1.4X 2 + 3.3X 3 + 0.6X 4 + 0.999X 5

The results of numerous calculations using the Altman model showed that the generalized indicator Z can take values ​​ranging from -14 to +22, while enterprises for which Z > 2.99 fall into the category of financially stable, and enterprises for which Z< 1,81 - безусловно несостоятельных; интервал 1,81 - 2,99 составляет зону неопределенности.

The British scientist Taffler proposed a four-factor predictive model of the species (formula 16):

Z = 0.53x1 + 0.13x2 + 0.18x3 + 0.16x4 (16)

where x 1 - the ratio of profit from sales to short-term liabilities;

x 2 - ratio current assets to the amount of liabilities;

x 3 - the ratio of short-term liabilities to the amount of assets;

x 4 - the ratio of revenue to the amount of assets.

With a value of Z greater than 0.3, the company has good long-term prospects, with a value of Z less than 0.2, bankruptcy is more than likely.

There is also a model for predicting the probability of bankruptcy, developed by scientists from the Irkutsk State Academy of Economics (formula 17):

Z = 8.38K 1 + K 2 + 0.54K 3 + 0.63K 4 (17)

where K 1 - the ratio of working capital to assets;

K 2 - ratio net profit to equity;

K 3 - the ratio of proceeds from sales to assets;

To 4 - the ratio of net profit to integral costs.

Russian discriminant bankruptcy forecasting models are represented by a two-factor model by M.A. Fedotova and the five-factor model of R.S. Saifulina, G.G. Kadykov.

Bankruptcy Probability Estimation Model M.A. Fedotova is based on the current liquidity ratio ( X 1 ) and the share of borrowed funds in the balance sheet currency (X 2 ):

Z = -0.3877-1.0736 X 1 + 0,0579 X 2 .

With a negative index value Z it is likely that the company will remain solvent.

R.S. equation Saifulina, G.G. Kadykova looks like:

Z = 2.x 1 +0,1X 2 +0,08X 3 +0,45X 4 +X 5 ,

where x 1 - coefficient of provision with own funds (normative value X G >0,1);

X 2 - current ratio (X 2 >2);

X 3 - the intensity of the turnover of the advanced capital, characterizing the volume of sales per 1 rub. funds invested in the activities of the enterprise (x 3 > 2.5);

X 4 - management ratio, calculated as the ratio of profit from sales to revenue;

X 5 - return on equity (x 5 >0.2).

With full compliance of the values ​​of financial ratios with the minimum standard levels, the index Z equals 1. The financial condition of an enterprise with a rating number less than 1 is characterized as unsatisfactory. The disadvantages of such models are the overestimation of the role of quantitative factors, the arbitrariness of the choice of a system of basic quantitative indicators, and high sensitivity to distortion. financial reporting and etc.

To diagnose the financial condition of an enterprise in the anti-crisis management system, various domestic and foreign methods are used, each of which has certain features and disadvantages. Various bankruptcy prediction techniques actually predict different kinds crises. It seems, however, that none of the methods can claim to be used as a universal one precisely because of "specialization" in any one type of crisis. Therefore, it seems appropriate to track the dynamics of changes in the resulting indicators for several of them. The choice of specific methods, obviously, should be dictated by the characteristics of the industry in which the enterprise operates. Moreover, even the methods themselves can and should be subject to adjustment taking into account the specifics of industries.

Thus, based on the study and analysis of literary sources, the following conclusions can be drawn.

Anti-crisis management is the process of applying forms, methods and procedures aimed at the socio-economic improvement of the financial and economic activities of an enterprise, the creation and development of conditions for overcoming a crisis.

Like any socio-economic system, the enterprise strives for sustainability. However, external and internal factors make him constantly adapt, adapt to new conditions and situations. A crisis in an enterprise occurs when the existing business structure cannot adapt to the changed operating conditions. As a result, work existing system disorganized, but at the same time the prerequisites for a new system appear.

In anti-crisis management of an enterprise, diagnostics of the financial condition of an enterprise plays an important role. Financial condition is a characteristic economic activity enterprises in the external environment. The main task of diagnosing the financial condition of an enterprise is to determine the quality of the financial condition of an enterprise, as well as to determine the reasons for its improvement or deterioration; further, as a rule, recommendations are prepared on solvency and financial stability enterprises.

To date, the world practice has developed quite stable approaches to the analysis of the financial statements of enterprises and the formation of conclusions and recommendations based on the results of the analysis. The methods used in this process can be divided into four groups: transformational, qualitative, coefficient and integral.

The profitability of the enterprise is directly related to the financial condition. If the solvency of an enterprise mainly depends on the turnover of assets, then financial stability depends on profitability, since. equity replenished with profits.

In the context of increased competition, economic instability, and a decrease in the solvency of the population and business entities, the diagnostics of the financial condition of CJSC "XXX" is of particular importance in order to develop directions further development organizations. As part of the anti-crisis management of an enterprise, it is necessary to conduct a financial analysis, which will include: analysis of working capital; assessment of the need for advanced capital; analysis of the need for equity capital; capital structure analysis; analysis of the validity of the policy of distribution and use of profits; investment feasibility analysis; business and financial risk analysis, etc.

Assessment of the possibility of bankruptcy of entities entrepreneurial activity involves the use of various forms and methods of accounting for indicators characterizing changes between the general targets of enterprises and particular tasks in order to make decisions on their elimination.

Among the existing methods for analyzing and diagnosing the financial condition of an organization, the two-factor model of E.I. Altman; five-factor model of E.I. Altman based on Z-score; Taffler model, V.Kh. Beaver, the rating number of Saifullin R.S. and Kadykova G.G., six-factor model by O.P. Zaitseva.

The most fundamental is the study of E.I. Altman, which was the basis of numerous subsequent studies conducted in the field of bankruptcy diagnostics.

The most accessible, in terms of ease of use, is a technique similar to the two-factor mathematical model of E.I. Altman, when constructing which, two indicators are taken into account: and the share of borrowed funds in liabilities.

The weighting values ​​of these coefficients are determined empirically and amount to K p = - 1.0736 for the indicator of current liquidity (coverage) and for the indicator specific gravity borrowed funds in the liabilities of the organization K z \u003d +0.0579.

Then the assessment of the probability of bankruptcy of the organization in accordance with the two-factor model of E.I. Altman can be determined by formula (1):

Z \u003d - 0.3877 - 1.0736K p + 0.0579K s, (1)

where: - 03877 - constant coefficient;

K p - indicator of current liquidity (coverage);

K z - an indicator of the share of borrowed funds in the liabilities of the organization.

Moreover, if Z takes a value equal to zero, then the probability of bankruptcy of the organization is 50%, if Z< 0, то вероятность банкротства менее 50 % и если Z >0, then the probability of bankruptcy is more than 50%, which increases with increasing Z.

However, when calculating the possible bankruptcy of an organization using the two-factor model method, certain aspects of the financial activities of organizations, expressed by asset turnover, profitability, the rate of change in sales proceeds, etc., are not reflected.

Five-factor model of E.I. Altman's Z-score system takes into account five indicators that are calculated in the process of conducting a multiplicative discriminant analysis (Multiple-discriminant analysis - MDA) of the financial condition of an organization.

The discriminant analysis model is represented as formula (2):

D \u003d b 0 + b l K l + b 2 K 2 + b 3 Ki +. +b k K k , (2)

where D is the discriminant indicator (discriminant);

b - discriminant coefficient, or weight;

K is the predictor, or independent variable.

Coefficients b 0 , b 1 , b 2 , b 3 …. b k are defined as the ratio of the intergroup sum of squares to the intragroup sum of squares for the discriminant scores maximum.

The Z-score indicator, which characterizes the creditworthiness of an organization, can be calculated using the formula (3):

Z-score \u003d 1.2 x K 1 + 1.4 x K 2 + 3.3 x K 3 + 0.6 x K 4 + K 5, (3)

K 3 - return on assets;

K 4 - the ratio of the market value of all ordinary and preferred shares of the organization to borrowed funds;

K 5 - asset turnover.

The advantage of this model is that it provides a definition of bankruptcy of organizations with a high degree of probability.

Under the conditions typical for the economy of the Republic of Belarus, when the profitability of individual organizations is largely exposed to the danger of external fluctuations, the model presented above makes it possible to assess the financial situation of enterprises not only from the standpoint of their viability, but also the sustainability of financial and economic activities in the future. At the same time, the basis for the formation of these models are empirical factors, which are a set of coefficients that are determined specifically for each industry, but can vary significantly in terms of the magnitude of the indicators. Therefore, a modified version of E.I. Altman, taking into account the circumstances associated with the valuation of shares that have not yet been quoted on the stock exchange, can be expressed by formula (4):

R \u003d 8.38 x K 1 + K 2 + 0.054 x K 3 + 0.63 x K 4, (4)

where R is the final bankruptcy probability coefficient;

K 1 - the share of net working capital in assets;

K 2 - the ratio of accumulated profit to assets;

K 3 - return on assets;

K 4 - book value of shares.

At the same time, this model assumes the presence of an actively operating, secondary securities market, on which their price can be determined, and in the conditions of its underdevelopment, the use of the Z-score indicator is inappropriate.

Having studied the models of E.I. Altman, from the position of its viability for different business conditions, R. Tuffler and G. Tishaw formed a four-factor model of the financial insolvency of enterprises, the content of which was argued by the need to introduce variable indicators (formula 5):

where Z is the final bankruptcy probability coefficient;

To 1 - the ratio of profit from sales to short-term liabilities;

K 2 - the ratio of current assets to the amount of liabilities;

K 3 - the ratio of short-term liabilities to the amount of assets;

K 4 - the ratio of sales proceeds and total amount assets.

At the same time, the variable TO 1 plays a dominant role compared to others, and in conditions where the distinctive predictive power of the model is lower compared to the Altman Z-score, even minor fluctuations in the economic situation in the country and the presence possible errors in the source data when calculating financial ratios can lead to erroneous conclusions.R. Tuffler and G. Tishaw found that with Z > 0.3 the probability of bankruptcy is low, and with Z< 0,2 высокая.

At the same time, the predictive model of R. Taffler and G. Tishaw does not include a market valuation of a business in the form of a stock quote, and its use in business practice has not become widespread.

After analyzing many coefficients characterizing the activities of bankrupt companies, W. Beaver grouped them into six groups, which allowed him to establish that the most important indicator in each of the groups is the indicator reflecting the ratio of cash inflow and borrowed capital, and proposed a five-factor system for assessing the financial condition of an organization for diagnosing bankruptcy, including the following indicators:

return on assets;

the share of borrowed funds in liabilities;

current liquidity ratio;

share of net working capital in assets;

the Beaver coefficient, which is the ratio of the sum of net income and depreciation to borrowed funds.

Based on these provisions, to determine the probability of bankruptcy according to the W. Beaver model, the obtained values ​​of the indicators can be compared with the standard indicators for prosperous firms that went bankrupt within a year and became bankrupt within 5 years (Table 1).

Table 1 ? Determining the probability of bankruptcy according to the W. Beaver model

Indicators	Calculation of indicators	Normative values ​​of indicators for different groups
Prosperous companies 5 years before bankruptcy 1 year before bankruptcy
Economic profitability	Net profit Balance currency
financial leverage
Current liquidity ratio	current assets Current responsibility
Coefficient coverage of assets by net working capital	Own - Non-working capital
Beaver's ratio	Net income + Depreciation Long-term + Short-term liabilities

The methodology for assessing the probability of bankruptcy of organizations using the step-by-step discriminant method proposed by G. Springate makes it possible to determine the risk of insolvency with an accuracy of more than 90% of the enterprises under study. Its peculiarity is that in such a model only 4 financial ratios are used (formula 6):

Z = 1.03K 1 +3.07K 2 +0.66K 3 +0.4K 4, (6)

where K 1 - working capital;

K 2 - profit before tax + interest payable;

K 3 - profit before tax h short-term liabilities;

K 4 - proceeds (net) from sales.

The probability of bankruptcy of the organization is determined by the calculated parameters Z, based on the position that if Z is less than 0.862, then the probability of bankruptcy is high, if Z is more than 0.862, then bankruptcy is unlikely.

French scientists J. Conan and M. Golder, based on the method of multiple discriminant analysis, developed a methodology for assessing the solvency of organizations, which made it possible to assess the probability of delaying payments by an organization. The model describes the probability of a crisis situation (bankruptcy) for various values ​​of the KG index:

KG \u003d - 0.16K 1 - 0.22K 2 + 0.87K 3 - 0.10K 4 - 0.24K 5, (7)

where K 1 is the share of quick liquid assets (cash + short-term financial investments + short-term accounts receivable) in assets;

K 2 - the share of long-term sources of financing in liabilities;

To 3 - the ratio of financial expenses (paid interest on borrowed funds + income tax) to the net proceeds from the sale;

K 4 - the share of personnel costs in gross profit;

To 5 - the ratio of accumulated profit and borrowed capital.

Depending on the value of KG, an assessment of the probability of bankruptcy of the organization is given on a certain scale, presented in table 3.

Table 3 - Determination of the probability of bankruptcy by the method of Konnan-Golder

The accuracy of this technique is 90%.

IN real conditions the use of the listed bankruptcy forecasting models in business practice did not bring sufficiently accurate results. This is primarily due to the fact that two - three-factor models are not sufficiently accurate. Prediction accuracy increases if more factors are taken into account.

These models should only be used as an aid to the analysis of organizations. Relying entirely on their results is unwise and dangerous. They should only be used after verification and correction in the environment of future use.

The models presented above contain weights and thresholds for complex and partial indicators, which are calculated on the basis of country analyzes of the sixties and seventies of the last century. They do not correspond to the current economic situation in the Republic of Belarus.

Also, the disadvantages of the considered methods include:

the forecasting period in the considered models ranges from three to five years, and in some models the forecasting period is not indicated at all. In the conditions of the dynamically developing economy of the Republic of Belarus, the use of a forecasting period equal to five years, as is the case in the models of foreign authors, is premature, and it is necessary to use shorter periods of time (up to one to three years), these methods make it possible to determine the likelihood of an approaching bankruptcy of an organization, but they do not allow predicting the onset of the growth phase and other phases life cycle organizations.

Of particular interest are individual models proposed by Russian scientists:

five-factor model of R.S. Saifullin and G.G. Kadykov.

six-factor model of O.P. Zaitseva;

Unfortunately, their use does not always guarantee the accuracy of the estimate. financial position organizations in the conditions of the Republic of Belarus.

Russian scientists R.S. Saifullin and G.G. Kadykov made an attempt to adapt the "Z-score" model of E.I. Altman. They suggested using a rating number to assess the financial condition of organizations:

R \u003d 2K o + 0.1K t + 0.08K and + 0.45K m + K pr, (8)

where K o - coefficient of provision with own funds; K tl - coefficient of current liquidity; K and - asset turnover ratio; K m - commercial margin (profitability of product sales); K pr - return on equity.

With full compliance of financial ratios with their minimum standard levels, the rating number will be equal to one and the organization will have a satisfactory state of the economy. The financial condition of organizations with a rating number less than one is characterized as unsatisfactory.

Model R.S. Saifullin and G.G. Kadykov is the most accurate of all the presented models, however, a small change in the equity ratio from 0.1 to 0.2 leads to a change in the final indicator ("rating number") to:

R1 \u003d (0.2 - 0.1) x 2 \u003d 0.2 points.

A significant change in the current liquidity ratio from zero (from complete illiquidity) to two leads to the same result, which characterizes highly liquid organizations:

R2 = (2 - 0) x 0.1 = 0.2 points

Assessing the existing methods for assessing the economic condition of an organization and predicting the probability of bankruptcy, it can be concluded that a model that meets the economic conditions of the Republic of Belarus, taking into account the specifics of the economy of the country or the industry as a whole, does not yet exist.

High sensitivity model R.S. Saifulin to the change in the share of short-term liabilities is explained by the use in the model of a slightly overestimated weight coefficient for the indicator of the ratio of net working capital to an asset. As a result, no realistically achievable indicators of current liquidity, business activity and profitability cannot ensure the achievement of an acceptable value of the integral indicator.

The complex coefficient of bankruptcy in the six-factor mathematical model of O.P. Zaitseva is calculated by the formula:

K set \u003d 0.25K pack + 0.1K s + 0.2K s + 0.25K ur + 0.1K fr + 0.1K zag, (9)

where K UP - loss ratio of the organization, characterized by the ratio of net loss to equity;

K z - the ratio of accounts payable and receivable;

K c - an indicator of the ratio of short-term liabilities and the most liquid assets, this coefficient is the reciprocal of the absolute liquidity indicator;

K ur - unprofitable sales of products, characterized by the ratio of net loss to the volume of sales of these products;

To fr - the ratio of borrowed and equity capital;

K zag - the asset utilization factor as the reciprocal of the asset turnover ratio.

The weighting values ​​of private indicators for the conditions of functioning of domestic organizations were determined by an expert, and the actual complex bankruptcy rate should be compared with the normative one, calculated on the basis of the recommended minimum values ​​of private indicators:

K up = 0; K z \u003d 1; K c = 7; K ur = 0; Kfr = 0.7;

K zag = value of K zag in the previous period.

If the actual complex coefficient is greater than the standard one, then the probability of bankruptcy is high, and if it is less, then the probability of bankruptcy is small. The absence in the Republic of Belarus of statistical materials on bankrupt organizations does not allow to adjust the methodology for calculating weight coefficients and threshold values, taking into account economic conditions, and the determination of these coefficients by expert means does not provide sufficient accuracy. The weight values ​​of private indicators for the conditions of functioning of Russian organizations were determined by an expert, and the actual complex bankruptcy rate should be compared with the normative one, calculated on the basis of the recommended minimum values ​​of private indicators given in Table 4.

Table 4 - Minimum values ​​of private indicators

Determination of weight coefficients in the O.P. Zaitseva is not entirely justified, since the weight coefficients in this model were determined without taking into account the correction for the relative value of the partial coefficient values. For example, the normative value of the indicator of the ratio of term liabilities and the most liquid assets is seven, and the normative values ​​of the organization's loss ratio and the loss ratio of product sales are equal to zero. In this regard, even small changes in one of the above indicators lead to fluctuations in the final value, ten times stronger than the change in the above coefficients, although, according to the author of this model, they, on the contrary, should have had a greater weight value compared to the ratio of term liabilities and the most liquid assets.

All of the above methods take into account the state of indicators only at the time of analysis, and changes in dynamics over time are not considered. The exceptions are: the dynamics of profit in the second version of Altman's "Z-score" and the dynamics of the asset utilization factor of O.P. Zaitseva.

Seeing the relative external similarity of domestic and Russian systems market economic development, there are quite significant internal differences in the economic policies of neighboring states, which in turn makes it possible to doubt the reliability of the forecast of the models discussed above in relation to the organizations of the Republic of Belarus.

Bankruptcy forecasting models developed by Belarusian scientists include G.V. Savitskaya.

This technique consists in classifying organizations according to the degree of risk based on the actual level of financial stability indicators and the rating of each indicator, expressed in points. The technique has the form presented in table 5.

Table 5 - Grouping of indicators according to the criteria for assessing the financial condition

Index	Class boundaries according to criteria
Absolute liquidity ratio	0.25 or more
Quick liquidity ratio
Current liquidity ratio
Autonomy coefficient	0.6 or more
SOS security factor	0.5 or more
Ratio of reserve stocks of SOK
Minimum border value

Based on the methodology of G.V. Savitskaya organization can be attributed to one of the following classes:

An organization with a good margin of financial stability, allowing you to be sure of the return of borrowed funds;

Organizations showing some degree of debt risk but not yet considered to be in trouble;

Problematic organizations - there is hardly a risk of losing funds, but the full receipt of interest seems doubtful;

An organization at high risk of bankruptcy. Even after taking measures for financial recovery, creditors risk losing all funds and interest;

Organizations of the highest risk, practically insolvent;

Bankrupt organizations.

The advantages of this model include its domestic origin and positive feedback when testing the model on samples of domestic organizations.

As a result of the material discussed in this section, it is possible to draw the following conclusions.

1. Economic potential - the ability of an enterprise to achieve its goals, using its material, labor and financial resources. There are two sides of economic potential: property status commercial organization and her financial situation.

2. The financial position is determined by the achieved reporting period financial results and, in addition, is described by some balance sheet items, as well as the ratios between them. At the same time, from a short-term perspective, they talk about the liquidity and solvency of the organization, and in the long term - about financial stability.

3. The financial condition of an economic entity is a characteristic of its financial competitiveness (ie solvency, creditworthiness), the use of financial resources and capital, the fulfillment of obligations to the state and other economic entities.

4. Financial and economic analysis is a comprehensive, evidence-based economic study of the financial and economic activities of the enterprise. Theoretical foundations financial and economic analysis is a set of scientific principles used in the study of economic phenomena.

5. The main source of information for analyzing the financial position of the organization is the balance sheet. Forms are also used financial statements: form No. 2 "Profit and loss statement", form No. 3 "Statement on the movement of funds and other funds", form No. 4 "Statement of cash flows", form No. 5 "Appendix to the balance sheet", current accounting data.

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The diversity and diversity of anti-crisis measures makes it difficult to identify the most effective and efficient ways to overcome the crisis. The development of a model of anti-crisis personnel management and its inclusion in the activities of the management system is due to the crisis itself and the subsequent decline economic indicators and development prospects. The essence of anti-crisis personnel management, including employees, employers and other owners of the enterprise is to establish the main factors for the effectiveness of management in a crisis. These relations are based on the principles, methods and forms of influence on the interests, behavior and activities of employees in order to maximize their use. The anti-crisis management model is associated with the disclosure of the necessary potentials of the individual and includes professional and personal blocks.

control

anti-crisis personnel management

crisis response model

professional and personal potential

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2. Zabrodin, Yu.M., Kulapov M.N., Odegov Yu.G. Human psychology and personnel management // Bulletin of the Russian University of Economics them. G.V. Plekhanov. - 2005. - No. 2. - P. 53-67.

3. Okhotnikov O.V. Philosophical foundations of the organization's personnel policy // Personnel policy organizations: scientific notes of the department of personnel management and psychology. - Issue. 1. - Yekaterinburg: UrFU, 2015. - P. 8–19.

4. Ponomareva O.Ya. Application of the competency model as a direction of personnel policy: from theory to practice // Personnel policy of the organization: scientific notes of the department of personnel management and psychology. - Issue. 1. - Yekaterinburg: UrFU, 2015. - S. 29–39.

5. Prozorova, O.N. "Psychology of the self" by E. Erickson and V. Frankl's logotherapy in personnel management: comparative analysis // Actual problems humanities. - Tomsk, 2013. - S. 269-271.

6. Ryabov O.A. Modeling of processes and systems: tutorial. - Krasnoyarsk, 2008. - 122 p.

7. Smirnov V.K. Psychology of personnel management in extreme conditions: textbook. - M., 2007.

8. Tokareva Yu.A. Management consulting as an element of system personnel policy // Personnel policy of the organization: scientific notes of the department of personnel management and psychology. - Issue. 1. - Yekaterinburg: UrFU, 2015. - S. 148–155.

At the present stage of development of the psychological side of economic processes, the problem of developing a model of anti-crisis personnel management, which reveals the idea of ​​maintaining a stable social form during the economic crisis experienced by Russia, is being actualized. Along with the fact that such developments are not uncommon for scientific and research work in the field of personnel management, a great merit of scientists is to pay attention to the analysis of the psychological component of the activities of personnel management services (A.P. Gradov, Yu.M. Zabrodin, O.N. Prozorova, V.K. Smirnov, etc.). The psychology of management and the task of psychological modeling associated with it is just beginning to be developed by the domestic psychological school, and a significant contribution to this area is made by studies containing guidelines necessary for understanding the processes of the personnel component of enterprises (O.E. Alekhina, Yu.I. Bogdanov, T.Yu. Bazarov, A.Ya. Kibanov, O.V. Okhotnikov, etc.). Modeling the anti-crisis management process, which includes the development of the professional and personal potential of the personnel of the enterprise, is based primarily on the established didactic essence and features of this process, which have their own specifics during the period of reforms and social crises (T.K. Kovalenko, O.A. Ryabov, Yu.A. Tokareva, A.E. Fedorova, etc.).

A model is understood as such a mentally represented or materially realized system that, displaying or reproducing the object of study, is able to replace it in such a way that its study gives us new information about this object. The basis of the anti-crisis personnel management model is the development of the professional and personal potential of employees through psychological technologies, various forms, methods, principles, criteria, components, functions and educational modules.

Taking into account the existing developments in the field of anti-crisis management based on personal and professional implementation specialist, by now the contradictions between:

Numerous research papers addressing questions professional activity in conditions of crises and stresses and requirements for its implementation, and insufficient representation of works that characterize the idea of ​​the integrity of personal and professional readiness to solve problems of an increased level of complexity;

The multidimensionality of the knowledge of the problem of anti-crisis management and the fragmentation of studies that study the professional and personal side of a specialist, psychological aspect its implementation in a crisis;

The need to model the process of anti-crisis management, taking into account the professional and personal component of the development of a specialist and the fragmentation of ideas about targeted models of personnel development in a crisis.

The search for ways to resolve these contradictions determined the problem of our study, which theoretically consists in developing a model of anti-crisis personnel management in a socio-economic crisis based on personal and professional potential, taking into account its structural organization and meaningful fullness, ensuring the successful implementation of professional activities.

The theoretical basis for modeling anti-crisis personnel management based on professional and personal potential are works in the field of scientific modeling (B.V. Biryukov, V.A. Venikov, Yu.A. Gastev, E.S. Geller, O.Ya. Gelman, A.I. Uemov, V.V. Chavchanidze, V.A. Shtof, etc.), modeling in psychology (P.K. Anokhin, N.A. Bernstein, V.P. Zin chenko, I.M. Kondakov, B.G. Meshcheryakov, etc.).

Modeling as a method of scientific knowledge is based on similarity, in which not the object itself is studied, but its analogue, its substitute, and then the results obtained during the study of the model are extrapolated to the object under study. The model can be objectively built and implemented only taking into account the mission, goals and strategy of anti-crisis response, because at its core, is an ideal model of a specialist who can be effective in conditions of professional stress and crisis.

The actualization of the model of anti-crisis personnel management will be complete if a number of external (created by a psychologist) and internal (depending on a specialist) conditions are observed:

1. A systematic approach, which consists in the mandatory participation, in a crisis, of all components of professional and personal potential. In personal: cognitive, emotional and behavioral. In the professional: motivational-need, executive and control-evaluative.

2. A facilitative approach associated with adequate psychological tactics for updating personal resources, since this approach focuses on creating conditions for the individual and collective realization of all components of personal potential in a crisis.

3. Responsible attitude to the process of anti-crisis response. The model will be effective only if the professional himself is aware of the degree of responsibility for the actions taken, wants to make efforts and efforts to his own development and level of professionalism.

An analysis of existing developments in the field of psychological modeling and support made it possible to form a number of clear guidelines for theoretical modeling of anti-crisis management:

1) the personal level comes to the fore, i.e. not a ready-made set of professional skills and abilities, but personal and organizational activities, the ability of a specialist to “grow” by solving complex problems, the ability to analyze one’s own personal qualities find conditions for personal growth;

2) the professional level is associated with the ability to quickly create, "design" a way out of the current crisis situation using one's own professional competencies. The implementation of a professional level is associated with the availability of new knowledge and professional skills in a specialist in accordance with the requirements of the market situation.

A generalization of the conducted research allows us to state that the process of anti-crisis response requires the following set of personal and professional qualities and progressive structural changes personalities:

1. Changing the direction of the personality:

Expanding the circle of interests and changing the system of needs;

Actualization of achievement motives;

Increasing need for self-realization and self-development.

2. Increasing experience and advanced training:

Increasing competence;

Development and expansion of skills and abilities;

Mastering new algorithms for solving professional problems;

Increasing the creativity of activities.

3. Development of complex private abilities.

4. Development of professionally important qualities determined by the specifics of the activity.

5. Development of personal and business qualities.

6. Increasing psychological readiness for professional activities under stress. It is known that human activity as a conscious form of diverse behavioral activity is determined not only by the professional qualities of the subject, but also by his personal characteristics.

Rice. 1. Model of anti-crisis personnel management in the conditions of socio-economic crisis

Based on the principles of system and activity approaches in the development of the model, we can distinguish structural elements, allowing to qualitatively assess both the content and the nature of the psychological readiness of the personnel in terms of personal and professional response. Thus, personal response and readiness to resist crisis processes includes: the cognitive component - contains a body of knowledge about oneself as a professional, about global trends in professional activities, which allow one to withstand and effectively overcome various, including stressful situations. The cognitive component determines the effectiveness of professional activity both independently and in a team. During the period of social overcoming, the structure of the cognitive component undergoes changes with the accumulation of the necessary knowledge, skills, and includes the representation of oneself in difficult situations, knowledge about oneself as a person, one’s strengths and weak sides, their attitudes, abilities; emotional component - awareness of signs of emotional comfort, understanding of signs of emotional tension, internal readiness to experience certain professional situations, the ability to empathize, sympathize, express and understand the emotions of others; behavioral - practicality, independence, confidence, allowing you to make decisions independently, the implementation of individual preferences in choosing behavior strategies in problem situations of social interaction, the formation of certain skills that allow you to successfully complete professional tasks, the ability to adequately express yourself in unexpected situations, the ability to control and manage your reactions. Vocational education includes: a motivational-need component - the leading determinants of professional activity, the desire to realize oneself in a situation of instability, individual activity, awareness of the need for self-development; executive component - the presence of formed skills related to professional activities, the ability to apply them in practice; control and evaluation - a conscious attitude to the results of their professional behavior, professional development, the ability to assess and adjust individual personal and professional skills, planning and achieving more high level professionalism and competence.

The problem of modeling the anti-crisis process, taking into account the professional and personal potential of the staff, is a modern formulation of questions traditional for psychology about psychological criteria, about the relationship between personal and professional.

Rice. 2. Model of professional and personal potential of anti-crisis regulation

In our opinion, personal qualities form an important foundation for the professional success of a specialist. Taking into account the professional and personal qualities, the peculiarities of their professional activity, we can say that the successful behavior of a specialist will depend on the consistent achievement of a professional and personal potential sufficient for anti-stress regulation.

Reviewers:

Bannikova L.N., Doctor of Social Sciences, Professor of the Department of Sociology and social technologies management, Ural federal university named after the first President of Russia B.N. Yeltsin, Yekaterinburg;

Vasyagina N.N., Doctor of Psychology, Professor, Head of the Department of Educational Psychology, Ural State Pedagogical University, Yekaterinburg;

Kozlova OA, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Head of the Center for Research on Socioeconomic Dynamics, Institute of Economics, Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Yekaterinburg.

Bibliographic link

Tokareva Yu.A., Kovalenko T.K. MODEL OF ANTI-CRISIS PERSONNEL MANAGEMENT OF AN ENTERPRISE DURING THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC CRISIS // Fundamental Research. - 2015. - No. 8-3. – S. 616-619;
URL: http://fundamental-research.ru/ru/article/view?id=38951 (date of access: 01/05/2020). We bring to your attention the journals published by the publishing house "Academy of Natural History"

Introduction

CHAPTER 1. Theoretical and methodological foundations of modeling the process of anti-crisis management industrial enterprises 11

1.1. The essence and conceptual foundations of modeling the process of anti-crisis management 11

1.2. The essence, types and causes of crises in industrial enterprises 21

1.2.1. Analysis of the concept of crisis, classification of types of crises 21

1.2.2. Stages of the crisis process 26

1.2.3. Classification of causes of crises 29

1.3. Theoretical aspects insolvency and bankruptcy 35

1.3.1. Analysis of the concepts of insolvency, insolvency, bankruptcy 35

1.3.2, Analysis of mathematical models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy: areas for improvement 40

Conclusions on the first chapter 53

CHAPTER 2. Development of methods ii of mathematical models of fuzzy-set analysis in anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises 57

2.1. Expert systems as a generalized representation of knowledge about the object of study 57

2.2. The main provisions of the theory of fuzzy sets: fuzzy sets, fuzzy numbers and operations on them 60

2.3, The concept of a linguistic variable 63

2.4. Development of a method for assessing the probability of bankruptcy of an enterprise 65

2.4.1. General provisions 65

2.4.2, System of criteria for model adequacy 68

2.4.3. Representing the Bankruptcy Probability Estimate as a Linguistic Variable 69

2.4.4. Application of the theory of experimental design 72

2.4.5. Algorithm for the method of assessing the probability of bankruptcy of an enterprise 76

2.5. Developing a Mathematical Model of the Crisis Management Process: Steep Climbing the Response Surface 89

2.6. Methodology of matrix assessment of qualitative and qualitative-quantitative factors 94

Conclusions on the second chapter 99

CHAPTER 3 Implementation of the developed methods and models of anti-crisis management of an industrial enterprise 103

3.1. Economic analysis of the object of study: parameters, trends 103

3.2. Development of a model for assessing the probability of bankruptcy for the object of study 108

3.2.1. Development of a model for assessing the probability of bankruptcy 108

3.2.2. Calculation of the probability of bankruptcy according to the developed model 126

3.2.3. Formation of an anti-crisis strategy 132

3.3. Evaluation of the effectiveness of anti-crisis measures taken... 136

Conclusions on the third chapter 138

Conclusion 141

Bibliography

Introduction to work

Relevance of the research topic. Modern operating conditions Russian enterprises determine the need for a comprehensive and objective economic analysis of production and economic activities. Such an analysis makes it possible to identify inefficiency and the causes of its occurrence, as well as, on the basis of the results obtained, to develop specific recommendations for optimizing activities. In this regard, on this stage formation market relations In the Russian economy, research in the field of anti-crisis management, in particular, in the field of identifying unfavorable trends in the development of enterprises, is becoming increasingly important.

The special significance of such studies is confirmed by the steady growth in the number of enterprises transferred to the stage of bankruptcy proceedings, the growth of overdue accounts payable, and the decrease in the profitability of enterprises in the industrial sector. Thus, according to the data of the Supreme Arbitration Court of the Russian Federation, the number of cases at this stage considered by the Court in 2005 was 13,963, and in 2004 - 9,390. external management and bankruptcy proceedings): in 2005 - 84; in 2004 - 150. At the same time, the number of enterprises that managed to actually restore their solvency in 2005 amounted to 21 out of 1013, compared with 2004 - 14 out of 1369 (at the stage of external management).

Moreover, the volumes and growth rates of accounts payable are quite significant. Thus, at the end of 2000, according to the Russian State Statistics Committee, overdue accounts payable amounted to 1,571 billion rubles. (or 116% by 1999), at the beginning of 2002, 1,638 billion rubles (or 104.3% by 2000). It should also be noted that the rate of profit of enterprises in the industrial sector during 2001 decreased from 14% to 9% (according to the materials of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-term Forecasting (CMASF).

Many domestic and foreign authors are studying the problems of economic and mathematical analysis of the processes of anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises. Among them are Altman E., Anokhin S.A., Bagiev G.L., Balabanov A.V., Bakanov M.I., Glukhov V.V., Gradov A.P., Kobzev V.V., Kozlovsky V.A., Kozlovskaya E.A., Kuzin B.I., Lis J., Mednikov M.D., Nedosekin A.O., Okorokov V.R., Robin son J., Sokolova R.V., Stoyanova E.S., Tisshaw J., Toffler E., Utkin E.A., Tsarev V.V., Chesser A., ​​Eitington V.N., Yuriev V.N. and others. It is believed that the criterion for the effectiveness of anti-crisis management is the assessment of the probability of bankruptcy. Therefore, the development of the theory, methodology and tools of this area of ​​anti-crisis management in modern economic conditions will ensure the effective functioning of the enterprise as a whole.

However, the uncertainty of the external and internal environment of industrial enterprises, which reduces the reliability of the known "accurate" mathematical models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy, the heterogeneity and non-representation of samples in these models, the presence of statistical errors necessitate the use of methods and models of fuzzy-multiple analysis as tools to reduce the loss of expert information during its interpretation and processing, as well as to determine the boundaries of uncertainty.

Moreover, at present, there is virtually no integrated system for managing crisis enterprises based on the use of modern mathematical tools that allows you to quickly analyze economic information in order to make reasonable decisions. management decisions.

It should be noted that the methods and models of fuzzy-set analysis, judging by the available scientific publications, have been used in economic research relatively recently. They concerned mainly aspects of the stock market. However, it seems that it is possible

The features of fuzzy-multiple analysis can also be extended to solving problems of anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises.

The actual need for the development of methods and models of fuzzy-set analysis in the anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises also arose due to the fact that attempts to make and implement management decisions based on classical mathematical methods were unsuccessful. This can be explained based on the well-known principle of incompatibility, according to which, with an increase in dimension and complexity, production systems their modeling according to known mathematical relations becomes more complicated.

Thus, the relevance of the chosen topic of the dissertation, the complexity, multidimensionality and unresolved number of methodological issues practical application fuzzy-multiple analysis in the anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises determined the purpose and objectives of the dissertation research.

The purpose of the study is the development of methods and models of fuzzy-multiple analysis of anti-crisis management processes aimed at improving the efficiency of production and economic activities of industrial enterprises.

In accordance with the set goal, the following tasks:

an analysis of the reasons for the insolvency of industrial enterprises was carried out, their classification was made;

the analysis of mathematical models for assessing the probability of bankruptcy of industrial enterprises;

developed a conceptual model of the economic mechanism for the emergence of insolvency of industrial enterprises;

a method and a mathematical model for a fuzzy-multiple assessment of the probability of bankruptcy of industrial enterprises have been developed;

developed a mathematical model of the process of anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises;

developed a method for the formation of anti-crisis strategies in the anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises;

a technique for fuzzy-multiple evaluation of qualitative indicators of production and economic activity of industrial enterprises is proposed.

Object of study selected industrial enterprises.

Subject of study - processes of anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises.

Theoretical and methodological base researches are scientific works of domestic and foreign authors in the field of economic analysis, anti-crisis management of an enterprise, economic and mathematical modeling, fuzzy set theory, experiment planning theory, expert information formalization theory, system analysis.

Information base The research was based on the materials of the State Statistics Committee of Russia, publications and reports of the Bulletin of the Supreme Arbitration Court, analytical and reporting materials of the executive authorities Russian Federation.

Scientific novelty research is as follows:

clarified the concepts of insolvency, insolvency, bankruptcy, which differ in taking into account the depth of the crisis state and processes;

a classification of the reasons for the insolvency of industrial enterprises has been developed, which differs from the known classifications by taking into account the aggregated factors of reducing the net discounted flow;

a conceptual model of the economic mechanism for the emergence of insolvency of industrial enterprises has been developed, which differs by taking into account the fuzziness of the stages of operation of enterprises;

a method and a mathematical model for a fuzzy-multiple assessment of the probability of bankruptcy of industrial enterprises have been developed, which differ in taking into account the effects of the interaction of factors of production and economic activity in the regression equation developed both for individual enterprises and for their totality;

a mathematical model of the process of anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises has been developed, which differs in taking into account the key factors of production and economic activity and the direction of their optimization;

a method for the formation of anti-crisis strategies in the anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises has been developed, which is distinguished by the use of the method of "steep climbing the response surface" and linguistic recognition of the results;

a technique for fuzzy-multiple assessment of qualitative indicators of production and economic activity of industrial enterprises is proposed, which differs by taking into account the fuzziness of expert information at all stages of its processing.

Practical significance dissertation research lies in the possibility of using the developed economic and mathematical methods and models in the analysis and monitoring of the activities of industrial enterprises, anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises, financial and industrial groups and holdings, enterprises of other industries.

Approbation and reliability of the research results.

The results of the dissertation research, scientific conclusions and methodological developments were reported at the scientific seminars of SPbSPU, are used in the educational process of SPbSPU. The main provisions and results of the dissertation research were included in the comprehensive anti-crisis plan of General Production Company LLC for 2004-2005; a number of provisions of the dissertation were used in solving the problems of anti-crisis management of OOO "VIPuf", as evidenced by the attached "Act on

9 implementation” and “Reference on the use of the results of the dissertation research”.

The structure and scope of the dissertation. The dissertation consists of an introduction, three chapters, a conclusion, appendices and a bibliography of 138 titles. Contains 148 pages of main text, 20 figures, 42 tables.

In the introduction the relevance of the topic is substantiated, the purpose and objectives of the dissertation research are determined.

In the first chapter"Theoretical and methodological foundations of modeling the process of anti-crisis management", explores the conceptual and methodological aspects of modeling the process of anti-crisis management. The essence of the concepts of anti-crisis management, insolvency, insolvency, bankruptcy are revealed; concepts of economic crisis. The goals and objectives of anti-crisis management of the enterprise are formulated. The concepts of classifications of crises are generalized, and a classification of the causes of crises is proposed. Analyzed and systematized the most relevant research in the field of assessing the probability of bankruptcy.

Second chapter"Development of methods and mathematical models of fuzzy-multiple analysis in anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises" is devoted to theoretical issues development of methods and models of fuzzy-multiple analysis. The choice of the theory of fuzzy sets, the theory of experiment planning, as well as the method of forming Delphi expert surveys in the conditions of fuzzy expert information is substantiated. Basic algorithms and models are being developed.

In the third chapter"Implementation of the developed methods and models of anti-crisis management of industrial enterprises" models and methods for assessing the probability of bankruptcy are implemented on the example of the selected enterprise - the object of study. The process of anti-crisis management is being studied.

10 in the form of an optimization of the function represented by the regression-polynomial equation. An anti-crisis management strategy based on the method of forming anti-crisis strategies is proposed. Offered practical advice for its implementation in practice.

In custody the most significant scientific and practical results of the dissertation research are summarized, and the main conclusions and recommendations are formulated.

The essence, types and causes of crises in industrial enterprises

The concept of crisis has a lot of definitions and interpretations. Translated from Greek, the word “crisis” means “a sentence, a decision on an issue or in a doubtful situation”, and can also mean “a way out, a solution to a conflict (for example, a military one)”. The modern meaning of the word is often used by doctors: a crisis means a decisive phase in the development of a disease. Here we are talking about "crisis" when the disease becomes more severe, passes into another disease, or even ends in death. In this regard, we can recall Koselleck's laconic formulation: "a crisis is a barely measurable turning point, in which the solution is either death or life" .

In the XVII - XVIII centuries. the concept of a crisis began to be applied in relation to the processes taking place in society, such as military or political crises. In this case, an almost unchanged meaning of the crisis, taken from medicine, was used.

And finally, in the 19th century, the meaning shifted to economics. "Classic" economic concept The crisis that took shape at that time means an undesirable and dramatic phase in the capitalist economic system, characterized by fluctuations and negative phenomena or interference. In this sense, the concept of crisis has long occupied a firm place in the scheme of conjuncture theories. Thus, Spiethoff's cyclic scheme contains the following stages: recession - first rise - second rise - peak - lack of capital - crisis. In turn, the identification of the stages of economic development and the development of the theory of economic cycles made it possible to replace the "classical" definition of a crisis with a more ambiguous concept of "economic crisis". On the economic crisis as defined by Mechlap we are talking in the case when "an undesired state arises economic relations, the unbearably critical situation of large segments of the population and the producing sectors of the economy. At the same time, Sombart defines the economic crisis as "an economically negative phenomenon in which a massive danger to economic life and reality arises" .

In the economics of the enterprise, the concept of an enterprise crisis is used. In a broad sense, this means a process that threatens the existence of a business. The concept of an enterprise crisis in modern economic literature describes various phenomena in the life of an enterprise, from simple interference in the functioning through various conflicts, up to the destruction of an enterprise, which, according to Grenz, "at least for this enterprise can be characterized as catastrophic" . Further, the crisis of an enterprise can be understood as an unplanned and undesirable, time-limited process that can significantly interfere or even make it impossible for the functioning of an economic entity. At the same time, the fundamental (conceptual) goals of the enterprise that are under threat and the size of this threat, in turn, determine the strength of the crisis.

The crisis of the enterprise represents a turning point in the sequence of processes of events and actions. Typical for a crisis situation there are two ways out of it - either liquidation of the enterprise (bankruptcy) as an extreme form, or successful overcoming of the crisis.

The periods between the beginning and the end of the crisis are of different duration. On the one hand, there are long-term, slightly accelerating crisis processes, on the other hand, there are unexpectedly emerging crisis processes, of high intensity and with a short development period. A crisis can absolutely unexpectedly manifest itself during the harmonious development of an enterprise and be in the nature of an insurmountable catastrophe or arise in accordance with assumptions and calculations. But in rare cases, the emergence of a crisis is unexpected, that is, without any warning to the specialists (experts) of the enterprise.

In a crisis, the most important problem is management. The high complexity of management in this case allows, on the one hand, to influence the development of autonomous processes and, on the other hand, covers the specific problems of leadership, which consists in the need for its high quality and, in turn, the presence of only two options for the end result - bankruptcy, or successful overcoming of the crisis.

The most complete presentation of the signs of a crisis can be found in Wiener and Caan:

First, crises are a turning point in the evolving change of events and actions; they often form a situation in which urgency and urgency of action are of great importance; crises threaten the goals and values ​​of the enterprise.

Secondly, crises reduce control over events, reduce reaction time to a minimum, cause a lack of available time, change relationships between participants, cause stress and fear among participants (management); moreover, the information at the disposal of the participants is usually insufficient.

Thirdly, the consequences of crises are difficult for the future of the participants involved, but at the same time they consist of events that create new conditions for success; crises bring uncertainty to the assessment of the situation and to the development of the necessary alternatives to overcome them.

Theoretical aspects of insolvency and bankruptcy

In order to achieve the goal set in the dissertation, it is necessary to consider the concept of bankruptcy in more detail. It should be noted that there is no unambiguous understanding of the etymology of the word "bankruptcy" in science. According to the compilers of the four-volume dictionary of the Russian language, the word "bankruptcy" comes from the French "banqueroute". The well-known researcher of the Russian language P. Chernykh is of the same opinion. But most researchers consider the etymological basis of the word "bankruptcy" to be two Italian words "banco" and "rotto", meaning "bench" and "broken". According to E. Freiheit, the concept of bankruptcy dates back to the 16th century and comes from the Italian “banca rotta”, which means “broken table” in Russian. According to historical data, creditor merchants broke the tables of insolvent money changers who were engaged in operations in the markets of the city-republics of medieval Italy (Venice, Genoa).

According to another point of view (M. Sobolev), the word "bankruptcy" comes from the word "bank". For different reasons commercial banks in the Middle Ages very often became insolvent. In Russian, the word "bankruptcy" has been known (first with "y" after "r") since the Petrine era.

In our opinion, in domestic economic science there is a sufficient number of studies devoted to the analysis of the problems of insolvency (bankruptcy) of enterprises. Among them are the works of V.V. Glukhova, A.P. Gradova, B.I. Kuzina, M.D. Mednikova and some others. However, there are still insufficiently developed methods for overcoming the crisis and preventing the bankruptcy of enterprises in the context of the specifics of the Russian economy and uncertainty.

There are also disagreements in the scientific and conceptual apparatus. So, both lawyers and economists often do not distinguish between such concepts as insolvency, insolvency, bankruptcy. Most scientific works and in practical articles these concepts are used as synonyms.

Thus, in order to reveal the essence of the processes considered in the dissertation, it is necessary to distinguish in more detail these similar, but at the same time different, from an economic point of view, categories.

So, for example, V.V. Kovalev under the insolvency (bankruptcy) of the enterprise understands the inability to satisfy the requirements of creditors for payment for goods, works, services, including the inability to provide mandatory payments to the budget, in off-budget funds, due to the unsatisfactory balance sheet structure of the debtor. According to S.G. Belyaev, V.I. Koshkin, bankruptcy is a civilized procedure for liquidating a debtor, selling his property and settling accounts with creditors. The domestic legislator also does not differentiate between the concepts of bankruptcy and insolvency. In Art. 2 federal law RF "On Insolvency (Bankruptcy)" bankruptcy is recognized arbitration court or the inability declared by the debtor to fully satisfy the claims of creditors for monetary obligations and (or) to fulfill the obligation to pay mandatory payments.

In foreign legislation, insolvency is understood as the inability of a person to pay off debt obligations, satisfied by the court, that is, his absolute insolvency. The concept of bankruptcy is used both as a synonym for the concept of insolvency, and in a narrow sense, describing a particular case of insolvency, when an insolvent debtor commits criminal acts that cause damage to creditors. Insolvency is considered as a preliminary assessment of the debtor, and bankruptcy is considered either as a final, court-established inability to pay off obligations, or as insolvency associated with illegal actions.

In our opinion, insolvency, which we understand as the inability of an enterprise to pay its obligations on time, does not appear immediately, but only at the last three stages of the business. Accordingly, three types of insolvency of the enterprise can be distinguished: - temporary insolvency; - acute insolvency; - chronic insolvency.

IN foreign countries Bankruptcy procedures are applied only in case of chronic insolvency. The current Russian insolvency legislation is based not on the criterion of chronic insolvency, but on the concept of insolvency in general.

Unfortunately, until now, in many domestic economic studies on insolvency, there is no definition that reveals the content of this economic category. Researchers, at best, limit themselves to bringing the definition given in Russian law on insolvency and revealing its legal side, and in the worst case, do not disclose this concept at all. But it must be taken into account that the legal category of insolvency is completely derived from the economic category of insolvency.

According to a common tradition, insolvency is understood as the poor financial condition of an enterprise, characterized by its insolvency. Often in domestic studies, when studying this phenomenon, it is overlooked that insolvency is only an external form of its internal problems, or rather the result of unprofitable activity, as well as the impact of crisis processes.

The main provisions of the theory of fuzzy sets: fuzzy sets, fuzzy numbers and operations on them

The universe X is a universal set, to which all the results of the study of the object belong.

A fuzzy set A is a set of values ​​of the universe X, such that each value of the universe X is associated with the degree of belonging of this value to the set A,

In other words, in accordance with the basic provisions of the theory of fuzzy sets, if each element x is associated with the degree of its membership in the fuzzy set R, then this membership is expressed by the number juA(x) on the interval . Such an extended concept of the membership function allows one to flexibly formalize and investigate many quantitative and qualitative objects, concepts, events, representing them using a fuzzy formalized set (fuzzy set):

The domain of definition tsA(x) will be the universe X (xe X) of the fuzzy set A: tsA:X SH,LsX. (2.2)

The change in the functional characteristics of the state of the object can be expressed as a vector X. Taking into account the fuzziness of the values ​​of the vector x, -, where / = [i, її], any situation can be interpreted as a fuzzy singleton.

The class of states characterized by a common property is considered as a union of fuzzy sets. For example, to combine fuzzy sets A and B with membership functions juA(x) and j.iH(x), the fuzzy set A and B has a membership function: ALL) = niax(/ (х\/ів(х)), where х є X. (2.3)

In general, the envelope describing this union is a non-linear membership function.

In accordance with , the concept of a unimodal fuzzy number of LR-type is represented in the following form: A = (aAc), (2.4) where b is the average value (mode) of the fuzzy number; a and c are, respectively, the left and right boundaries of the possible variations of the fuzzy number (see Fig. 2.1). For such a fuzzy number, the membership function of the variable x to the fuzzy set A has the form: J7,(1 - (b - x)la)x b,a 0 (2.5) Ml = (R(\ (x-b)/c)x b,c 0, where L and R are (L eft - left and R ight - right) functions of the increasing and decreasing parts of the membership function of the fuzzy number, respectively.

Operations on fuzzy numbers are introduced through operations on membership functions based on the so-called segment principle.

Let the membership level a be defined as the ordinate of the membership function of a fuzzy number. Then the intersection of the membership function with a fuzzy number gives a pair of values, which are called the boundaries of the confidence interval.

Let the membership level a be fixed and the corresponding confidence intervals be determined by two fuzzy numbers A and B: [ ,] and fo, ], respectively. Then the main operations with fuzzy numbers are reduced to operations with their confidence intervals. And operations with intervals, in turn, are expressed through operations with real numbers - the boundaries of intervals: 1) the operation of "addition": 2) the operation of "subtraction": - = 3) the operation of "multiplication": [a1, a2]x[d], d2] = [a, x.bVta2 xb2] 4) the operation of "division"; 5) operation "exponentiation":

Analyzing the properties of nonlinear operations with fuzzy numbers (for example, division), researchers come to the conclusion that the form of the membership functions of the resulting fuzzy numbers is often close to triangular. This allows you to approximate the result, bringing it to a triangular (unimodal) form. And, if there is reducibility, then operations with triangular (unimodal) numbers are reduced to operations with the abscissas of the vertices of their membership functions.

That is, if a description of a unimodal number is introduced by a set of vertex abscissas L = (a,b,c), then we can write: (ax,bx,cx) + (a2,b2ic2) = (ax+a2,bx+b2,cx+c2)

Therefore, in this dissertation research, it is LR-type unimodal fuzzy numbers that will be used.

The concept of a linguistic variable allows one to adequately represent an approximate verbal description and draw an appropriate conclusion even in the case when a deterministic description is absent or impossible in principle. The use of linguistic variables is very characteristic of human activity connected with approximate reasoning 64 . When simulating such activities, it is necessary to build mathematical models that allow, on the one hand, to represent these variables, on the other hand, to process them accordingly.

Fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic form the basis of the linguistic approach, in which the variables involved in the analytical description of the model can take on linguistic values.

A linguistic variable is characterized by a set of components: P = ,7 ,), (2-6) where x is the name of the linguistic variable; T - term-set or set of values; D- domain of definition (universe).

Linguistic variables according to can be divided into qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative.

So, for example, the linguistic variable "management level" can be represented by a certain set of components according to (2.6). It is obvious that this variable is of a qualitative nature, but presenting it in a fuzzy form does not cause difficulties (Fig. 2.2).

Development of a model for assessing the probability of bankruptcy

An adequate model of the anti-crisis management process, obtained as a result of 2.4, has the form of a polynomial of the first degree. The economic meaning of the obtained model is that it represents an adequate mathematical model of the anti-crisis management process. The polynomial coefficients are the partial derivatives of the response function with respect to the respective variables. Their geometric meaning is the tangents of the angles of inclination of the hyperplane to the corresponding axis. Bigger by absolute value the coefficient corresponds to a larger angle of inclination and, consequently, a more significant change in the optimization parameter when this factor changes.

The primary task - the interpretation of the model, is solved in several stages:

1) If there are significant linear effects of interactions in the model, these effects are replaced by new factors (for example, if there is an interaction in the model (х1х2) and the number of factors is 5, the factor х5=(ххх2) is added to the model). Thus, a full factorial experiment becomes a fractional factorial experiment with an appropriate number of replicas (interaction effects).

2) It is established to what extent each of the factors affects the optimization parameter. The value of the regression coefficient is a quantitative measure of this influence. The larger the coefficient, the stronger the influence of the factor. The signs of the coefficients indicate the nature of the influence of factors. The plus sign indicates that with an increase in the value of the factor, the value of the optimization parameter increases, and with a minus sign, it decreases. The interpretation of signs during optimization depends on whether the maximum or minimum of the response function is sought.

Further analysis of the model involves moving along a gradient.

A gradient is a vector that shows the direction of the fastest change of some quantity, the value of which changes from one point in space to another. The gradient gradfp of a continuous single-valued function is the vector:

According to Taylor's theorem on the expansion of an analytic function in a series, the partial derivatives of a function with respect to factors are equal in magnitude and sign to the corresponding regression coefficients. Consequently, the gradient gradY of the response function (of the enterprise bankruptcy probability function) Y is a vector; gradY -b(i + b2j + .,.+ bkk, (2.34)

Moving along a gradient provides the shortest path to the optimum, since the direction of the gradient is the direction of the steepest slope from a given point to the top. The economic meaning of gradY is that gradY is a mathematical model optimal strategy the process of anti-crisis management of the enterprise.

If you change the factors in proportion to their coefficients, taking into account the sign, then the movement to the optimum will be carried out along the steepest path. This process of moving towards the optimum region is called a steep ascent. Those. the economic meaning of this movement towards the optimum is a set of managerial decisions to exit the enterprise from the crisis phase of activity.

The technique of calculating a steep ascent should be considered using the example of a problem with one factor xx. Assume that curve 1 is an unknown response function. As a result of the implementation of the experiment plan with the center at point O, the regression equation y = bQ + blxl was obtained, adequately describing the response function in the range of x) values ​​from -1 to +1. The value of the regression coefficient bx is equal to the tangent of the angle between the regression line and the axis of this factor. If the step of movement along the xx axis is taken equal to /C, then, multiplying it by 6, we obtain the coordinates (Axx u, /) of the point A lying on the gradient. After the second step, the distance along the x-axis) will be equal to 2/Z. Multiplying 2Art by bx, we find the coordinates 2Ax( and 2 points B lying on the gradient, etc. Then, experiments are carried out with conditions corresponding to points on the gradient. Based on the results of these experiments, the optimum region is determined. fork points until the best result is found.

• Specialty HAC RF08.00.13
• Number of pages 138

INTRODUCTION

1 ANALYSIS OF THE PRODUCTION - ECONOMIC STATE OF INDUSTRIAL ENTERPRISES IN RUSSIA IN MODERN CONDITIONS.

1.1 Condition assessment industrial complex Russia (based on the materials of the enterprises of the city of Moscow).

1.1.1 Trends in the volume of production of industrial enterprises.

1.1.2 Analysis of the economic state of industrial enterprises.

1.1.3 General assessment of the state of the industrial complex in Moscow.

1.2. Organizational and methodological issues of the tasks of restructuring industrial enterprises.

2. DEVELOPMENT OF MODELS AND ALGORITHMS FOR ASSESSING THE EFFICIENCY AND RELIABILITY OF MEASURES TO BRING ENTERPRISES FROM A CRISIS STATE.

2.1. Models and algorithms for assessing the effectiveness of anti-crisis programs for the development of enterprises.

2.2. Development of models for assessing the reliability of anti-crisis programs for the development of an enterprise in conditions of uncertainty.

3. INTRODUCTION OF MODELS AND ALGORITHMS FOR ASSESSING THE EFFICIENCY AND RELIABILITY OF ANTI-CRISIS PROGRAMS OF ENTERPRISE DEVELOPMENT.

3.1. Analysis of the financial and economic state of OAO Moscow Metallurgical Plant "Hammer and Sickle".

3.1.1. Revenue and cost.

3.1.2. Analysis of the structure of production of the main types of products.

3.1.3 Analysis of the cost structure for production.

3.1.4. Indicators of financial stability, liquidity and solvency.

3.1.5. Final conclusion on the analysis of the financial and economic condition.

3.2. Description of the activities of the program for the exit of the "Hammer and Sickle" plant out of the crisis.

3.3. Experimental verification of models and algorithms for evaluating the effectiveness and reliability of anti-crisis program measures (based on the materials of Serp i Molot JSC).

3.3.1 Analysis of the effectiveness of the measures of the anti-crisis program.

3.3.2 Evaluation of the reliability of the measures of the anti-crisis program.

4. CONCLUSIONS AND RESULTS.

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Introduction to the thesis (part of the abstract) on the topic "Development of economic and mathematical models for assessing the effectiveness and reliability of anti-crisis measures at industrial enterprises"

The transitional period of the Russian economy market methods management caused colossal upheavals affecting all aspects of our lives. To the greatest extent, these shocks affected large industrial enterprises. Despite all the shortcomings of the former, centrally planned economic system, the presence of ministries, guaranteed supplies of raw materials and sales of products, created conditions for inefficient, but stable functioning of the entire system as a whole. With the transition to market methods of management, fairly well-established vertical and horizontal ties were destroyed. An important cause of the crisis machine-building plants and enterprises of large industry was the loss of major customers. The chain "supplier - manufacturer - consumer" has been broken. Hopes for conversion programs of military-industrial complex enterprises disappeared and, as a result, orders for engineering and metallurgy products disappeared. Imperfection of tariff and currency regulation foreign economic activity stimulated the export of raw materials, not finished products. The high interest rates of capital required an increasing diversion of financial (circulating) funds from the sphere of production to the financial sphere, in particular, for servicing debts on loans. The “washing out” of money from circulation led to the dominance of barter and mutual settlements, which made it impossible to purchase raw materials and components in the required quantities, as well as timely payment wages. Here is an incomplete list of all the consequences of economic reforms and the problems that the management of large industrial enterprises and their teams had to face.

In order to overcome the crisis, attempts are currently being made to develop various anti-crisis programs and measures aimed at improving the financial and economic state. The term restructuring appeared in the scientific and scientific-technical literature. At the same time, as the review of published works shows, the meaningful meaning of the concept of restructuring, the composition of the tasks included in the measures for restructuring the production of industrial enterprises, methods and models for assessing the effectiveness of restructuring measures are understood by different authors and developers in different ways. At the same time, the accumulated theoretical and practical experience makes it possible to make a number of generalizations of a methodological nature based on economic and mathematical methods that allow a systematic approach to solving restructuring problems.

In view of the foregoing, it is relevant to develop economic and mathematical models, methods and tools for solving a wide range of managerial tasks related to the problem of bringing industrial enterprises out of crisis and restructuring their activities.

The purpose of the work is to develop models for assessing the effectiveness and reliability of the implementation of anti-crisis programs for the development of industrial enterprises.

The main tasks of the work, determined by the formulated goal, are as follows:

Development of methodological approaches to decomposition of the problem of restructuring industrial enterprises;

Development of a methodological approach and models for evaluating the effectiveness of anti-crisis program measures;

Development of economic and mathematical models for assessing the reliability of the implementation of measures of anti-crisis programs for the development of enterprises in the conditions of external and internal disturbances;

Approbation of the developed methodological approaches and models in solving real problems of assessing the effectiveness and reliability of the implementation of anti-crisis programs at a particular industrial enterprise.

The object of the research is anti-crisis programs for the development of industrial enterprises.

Subject of study - methods and models quantification efficiency and reliability of the implementation of anti-crisis programs in the face of uncertainty.

Research methods. The theoretical and methodological basis of the study was the work of domestic and foreign scientists devoted to the problems of evaluating the effectiveness of the functioning of complex organizational and economic systems. Scientific provisions, results and conclusions are substantiated by the use of various techniques and methods of system analysis. The study used the methods of probability theory, mathematical statistics, decision theory.

Scientific novelty. The dissertation is the result of a study in which, based on the processing of a large amount of experimental material and its analysis, theoretical results have been obtained that are focused on solving important practical problems of the development of the Russian economy. The novelty of its scientific content is the following results:

1. Methodological approaches have been developed to the decomposition of the problem of restructuring industrial enterprises that are in crisis with the specification of directions, means to achieve goals and objectives.

2. An approach and a mathematical apparatus of analysis for evaluating the effectiveness of measures taken in anti-crisis programs for the development of enterprises have been researched and proposed.

3. Economic and mathematical models have been developed for assessing the reliability of the implementation of anti-crisis programs for the development of enterprises under conditions of uncertainty caused by the influence of external and internal disturbances.

4. Approbation of research results was carried out at a number of industrial enterprises.

Theoretical and practical significance. In theoretical terms, the significance of the dissertation lies in the development of a methodological approach to the analysis of the problem of restructuring, the construction of economic and mathematical models and algorithms for assessing the effectiveness and reliability of the implementation of anti-crisis programs for the development of industrial enterprises. The practical significance of the work lies in bringing the results of theoretical developments to specific recommendations for the use of models and algorithms, taking into account the uncertainty of the external and internal environment. The application of the results of the dissertation in solving real problems of choosing the most rational strategies for the development and distribution of resources will contribute to the processes of recovery and growth of the Russian economy. The practical significance of the work lies also in the fact that the obtained scientific results can be elements of a decision-making system in the development of complex integrated programs for the development of industrial enterprises and sectors of the national economy.

Implementation. The methodological approaches proposed in the work for the formation of economic and mathematical models and the recommendations obtained on their basis have found application in solving important practical problems. The constructiveness of the apparatus developed in the dissertation for analyzing the effectiveness and reliability of anti-crisis programs for the development of industrial enterprises is confirmed by the examination of the set of measures adopted for implementation to overcome the open crisis. joint-stock company"Moscow Metallurgical Plant Sickle and Hammer", implemented as part of a comprehensive program of activities carried out by the City Government

Approbation of work. The results of the research and the main scientific provisions of the work were reported at various conferences, in particular: at the All-Russian Scientific and Practical Conference "Samara Region on the Threshold of the XXI Century: Strategy for Social and Economic Development", Samara 1998; at the All-Russian Scientific and Practical Conference " Strategic planning: experience, modern technologies regional and municipal government, regional interaction”, Samara, Tolyatti, 1999; at the anniversary international scientific-practical conference "Theory of active systems - 30 years", Moscow, IPU RAS, 1999.

Scope and structure of work. The dissertation consists of an introduction, three chapters, a conclusion, a list of references and one appendix. The work is presented on 130 sheets of typewritten text.

Similar theses in the specialty "Mathematical and instrumental methods of economics", 08.00.13 VAK code

• Improving the mechanism of anti-crisis management of the enterprise 2001, candidate of economic sciences Hobta, Vladislav Vladimirovich

• Development and implementation of diagnostic procedures in the anti-crisis management system of an industrial enterprise 2007, Candidate of Economic Sciences Artem Alexandrovich Rasskazov

• Restructuring of enterprises in the building materials industry under anti-crisis management 2002, Candidate of Economic Sciences Zagrutdinov, Rafik Ravilovich

• Organizational and economic mechanisms of stabilization and sustainable development of industrial enterprises: anti-crisis approach 2009, candidate of economic sciences Makhnorylova, Marina Petrovna

• Increasing the efficiency of the anti-crisis management system of industrial enterprises in modern economic conditions 2001, Candidate of Economic Sciences Amelyanchik, Oleg Alexandrovich

Dissertation conclusion on the topic "Mathematical and instrumental methods of economics", Bogocharov, Vladimir Ivanovich

4. CONCLUSIONS AND RESULTS

As a result of the theoretical and experimental-computational studies, the following results and conclusions were obtained.

1. An analysis of the state of Russian industrial enterprises was carried out (based on the materials of Moscow), which made it possible to reflect in a quantitative measure the degree of depth of the economic crisis, as well as to assess the relevance and necessity of a system of measures for restructuring the activities of enterprises.

2. Decomposition of the problem of restructuring of industrial enterprises in a crisis condition with specification of directions, means of achieving goals and objectives has been carried out.

3. Researched and proposed methodological approach and apparatus of methodological analysis to assess the effectiveness of anti-crisis programs for the development of enterprises, based on the use of the approach (efficiency-costs).

4. Economic and mathematical models have been developed for assessing the reliability of the implementation of anti-crisis programs for the development of enterprises under conditions of uncertainty caused by the influence of external and internal disturbances.

5. Studies conducted on real experimental material made it possible to conclude that the models and algorithms developed in the dissertation work well.

Approbation of the research results on a real object made it possible to formulate practical recommendations for their study when solving the class of problems considered in the dissertation.

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