2 technology development and management decisions. Technology for the development and implementation of management decisions

Management decision-making technology

Making a management decision represents a conscious choice by the manager of one of the available options or alternatives for actions that bridge the gap between the current and future desired state of the organization. The decision-making process underlies the planning of the activities of any organization, since the plan is a set of decisions on the use of resources and to achieve the goals of the organization. It includes many different elements, but it necessarily contains the following elements:

• Problems
• alternatives
• solutions

• Within the framework of mathematical technology, normative decision-making models are developed. The purpose of applying these models is to choose the best alternatives in a particular situation when making a managerial decision. Normative models describe how a manager should approach decision making.

The disadvantage of mathematical technology is that it is based on the assumption that effective work manager for the benefit of the organization. In fact, in reality, the decision maker does not always seek to maximize economic efficiency your decision. It is possible to make decisions that at a minimum will satisfy the outcome of a particular situation. In this case, criteria such as “acceptable profit margin”, “reliable implementation of the plan” can be used.

• The second approach describes descriptive models based on behavioral decision theory. It uses psychological models that take into account various subjective processes that explain the actual behavior of the manager.

According to one of the psychological models, the decision maker tries more to “satisfy” than to maximize, that is, to find a good enough solution in specific conditions, taking into account the traditions of decision-making. One of the assumptions of this approach is based on the fact that the decision-making traditions and personal qualities of a manager are more decisive in the process of developing and making a managerial decision than the desire to maximize its effectiveness.

One of the approaches based on behavioral theory was developed by E. P. Golubkov. The “complex approach” described by him is based on the construction of complex methods for substantiating decisions that combine complementary methods of structuring, characterization and optimization.
Structuring involves determining the place and role of the object of study in solving problems of more high level, highlighting its main elements and establishing relationships between them. Structurization procedures make it possible to present the structure of the problem being solved in a form convenient for subsequent analysis.
Characterization is aimed at determining the system of characteristics that quantitatively describe the structure of the problem being solved.
Optimization involves a choice the best option solutions. The use of this method makes it possible to consistently reduce uncertainty in the process of developing a solution and increases the efficiency of the decision maker's mental activity.

Notes

Literature

Lukicheva L. I. Management decisions. - M: Omega, 2009. ISBN 5-98119-986-5.

Zlobina N.V. Management decisions. Tutorial. - Tambov: Tambov Publishing House. state tech. un-ta, 2007. - 80 p. - ISBN 978-5-8265-0669-1.

Lazarev V. N. Management decisions. - Ulyanovsk: UlGTU, 2011. - 56 p. - ISBN 978-5-9795-0838-2.

Golubkov E.P. What decision to make? (workshop of the business executive). - M.: "Economics", 1990. - 189 p. - ISBN 5-282-00743-6

Fatkhutdinov R. A. Strategic management: Textbook. - 7th ed., Rev. and additional M.: Delo, 2005. - 448 p. - ISBN 5-7749-0235-8

Links

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Section 2 - "Models, methodology and organization of the process of developing a management decision"

Lecture 4 "Technology for the development of management decisions"

1 The structure of the management decision-making process

Solution development- this is not just a one-time volitional act carried out by the decision maker. Solution development inevitably becomes a process. By definition, any process is a change in time. At the same time, it does not matter whether the changes take place continuously, smoothly, or, conversely, discretely, abruptly.

For methodological reasons, it is convenient to have a single continuous solution development process conditionally divided into three phases or stages:

Stage 1 justification solutions.

2. Stage acceptance solutions.

3. Stage organizations implementation of decisions

Under substantiation decisions is understood as a sub-process of carrying out all the preparatory work for the implementation of a conscious choice of the decision maker. This work should be based on the concepts and principles of development. Conceptually, it includes the following main tasks:

- in-depth analysis of the problem and the formation of a goal on this basis;

- awareness and study of the genesis and features of the "mechanism" of the conditions for the operation;

- formation of a representative set of alternatives for achieving the goal of the operation.

Under adoption decision making is understood as a sub-process of gradual psychological preparation by him of himself for a responsible step - the implementation of a conscious choice of the best alternative among the set of alternatives formed at the stage of substantiating decisions. In this regard, decision-making is the highest mental exertion of the will, a creative effort and a psychological leap from a state when there was no decision yet, to a state when it has already manifested itself.

Term "making decisions" can be used in narrow sense. At the same time, we will regard the adoption of a decision as a single implementation of a particular action by the decision maker when solving a particular problem or issue at any stage of the decision development process.

Under organization execution of decisions is understood as a sub-process of accumulation of resources and administrative actions in relation to them, and to specific executors.

Rationale for the decision begin with problem situation analysis. Due to the significant excess of the number of problems over the real possibilities of the decision maker to resolve them, the very choice of a problem for solution is already a problematic situation. Problems are dynamic objects. They constantly arise, exist and leave the field of vision of the decision maker over time. The decision maker constantly solves the question for himself: "What are the problems of today, and which one is it appropriate to start with?"

After listing problems The decision maker must make the first important decision - to choose the most important problem from the list.

When a problem for solution is selected from the list of problems, the decision maker personally (sometimes with the involvement of experts) conducts an in-depth substantive problem analysis. As a result of the analysis, a decision is made about the essence of the problem.

After the problem has been analyzed and its description has been drawn up, which is equally understandable to all participants in the decision development process (DM, experts, executors in terms of it), they proceed to the task of formulating a goal and forming (choosing) a result. The goal, like the problem, must be written down.

After the purpose of the operation is clearly formulated, the decision maker must immediately decide how (in what way) estimates of the values ​​of the results of the operation will be obtained for carrying out evaluation of the preference of alternatives.

To compile a list of them and reveal the genesis of the main factors of the problem situation and its "mechanism", access to direct and indirect sources is widely used. sources of information.

After collection of information The decision maker can move to the phase formation of the initial set of alternatives. The arsenal of methods currently used to generate a representative set of alternatives is extensive. However, all of them are based to some extent on the experience and sometimes on the intuition of the decision maker.

After that you can choose evaluation criterion alternatives and get evaluation of alternatives according to the selected criterion.

This completes the stage rationale for decisions and the acceptance phase begins. On this stage decision maker needs formulate preferences and at least partially formalize them for measurement. Preference- this is an expression of the subjective attitude of a particular person (DM) to the objects presented to him to choose from ( many presentation) for a specific purpose and under completely objective conditions. In order to identify preferences, decision makers offer to compare the elements of the presentation set and do this according to certain rules. As a result, the so-called system of preferences of the decision maker can be obtained from the decision maker, i.e., the system of his personal internal psychological attitudes that force him to perform one or another specific act in situations of choice:

Confident choice of only one of the objects among the set of presentations, since the decision maker considers this object to be better than all others;

A confident choice of several objects among the presented ones, and all the selected objects are considered by the DM to be “the same”, i.e., they do not have advantages over each other and at the same time are the best in comparison with all other, unselected objects.

When forming preferences, human consciousness is guided by objective and subjective factors, both emotional and rational components.

The formulated preferences of the decision maker allow build function choice. On the set of its admissible solutions, a subset is formed rational alternatives, for which a meaningful analysis is carried out and choice « the best alternatives, which satisfies the set goal.

Choosing the best alternative allows you to start the stage organizations solutions. First of all, the decision must be formalized legally (in the form of an order, order), then planning, selection of performers, resource provision, coordination of implementation and control of the actual results are carried out.

3. Model of the problem situation

The decision maker, who has assessed the importance and urgency of the problem, wants to resolve it immediately and is in a state of crisis - a psychological turning point.

According to the systematic approach, in order to approach the solution of the problem from scientific positions, the decision maker should build problem situation model. As problem situation models let's take a set of interrelated verbal and formal tasks of justifying decisions, the consistent solution of which will lead to the desired goal - choosing the best alternative, " best solution».

When considering a model of a problem situation, a task will be understood as an ordered statement (verbal or formal), consisting of two parts. The first part is what is known, or "Given". The second is what is not known, but "required" ("Find"). Accordingly, depending on the form of description, we will distinguish verbal and formal (or mathematical) task setting. It is clear that a formal statement of the problem can be obtained only on the basis of a verbal one. For a rational choice of the form of setting a particular problem, one should be guided by their advantages and disadvantages. Some comparative characteristics of verbal and formal formulations of problems are presented in Table.

Table 2.1 - Comparative characteristics problem setting

Quality assessment criteria	Main Forms of Problem Statements
	"Verbal"	"Formal"
Historical order
The level of unambiguity in understanding the conditions of the problem	Low (due to the fact that it is difficult to ensure the unity of the language, to achieve unambiguous semantics of words and expressions)	High (due to the unity and rigor of the mathematical language, the unambiguity of the semantics of mathematical expressions)
Interpretability	High (due to the imagery of the language, its redundancy and the ability to take into account the context)	Low (due to excessive formalism, dryness of expressions)
Complementation by other means of increasing the adequacy of the perception of statements	A wide range of additional media: audiovisual, visual, game media	Limited opportunities; diagram charts, tables

The set of tasks in the model of the problem situation is presented in the form of Figure 2.7. In order to obtain a mathematical statement of the problem, identifiers are introduced denoting variables and constants, and the physical, economic, social and other connections appearing in verbal statements are modeled by introducing logical, arithmetic, algebraic and mathematical relationships between variables and constants. The areas of acceptable values ​​of controlled and uncontrolled factors model the manifestations of the laws of nature, restrictions on active resources, and so on. These restrictions are formed by equations and inequalities of the corresponding form.

Figure 2.7 - The structure of the problem situation model

As shown in Figure 2.7, modeling a problem situation turns each stage of the development of a managerial decision into a task that has its own private goal ("It is required to find") and conditions ("Given"). In turn, each task is divided into questions. A significant part of this set of tasks is solved personally by the decision maker, some - with the involvement of experts. In more detail, the characteristics of the tasks are presented in Table 2.2.

Table 2.2 - Characteristics of particular tasks of the problem situation model

Task name	The purpose of solving the problem		Verbal statement of the problem
Problem analysis task		Ensuring the principle of purpose. Choice of the most actual problem from the list of problems and the formation of a criterion		List of problems, ideas of decision makers about the relevance and urgency of their solution, own capabilities and preferences		Description of the upcoming operation, its expected results, criteria for evaluating the effectiveness
The task of modeling the mechanism of the situation		Ensuring the principle of measurement. Obtaining in the given scales of assessments of the results of the application of alternatives		The results of the analysis of the problem, assessment of the conditions for the operation, information about the nature of the factors and the patterns of their relationship in the operation		Type of model, types of scales for obtaining results and basic modeling relationships
The task of obtaining information		Ensuring the principle of information sufficiency. Information support of the solution development process		Problem analysis results, situation mechanism modeling results		Sources of obtaining information, ways of accessing sources of information and forms of presenting information
The problem of forming the initial set of alternatives		Ensuring the principle of freedom		Problem analysis results, solution selection results		Form several alternative solutions to the problem (at least two alternatives)
Preference Modeling Problem		Ensuring the principle of optimality		The purpose of the operation, the results of modeling the mechanism of the situation		The decision maker's preference model
Selection task		Decision-making		The purpose of the operation, many alternatives		"Best Alternative"
The task of evaluating the actual effectiveness of decisions		Generalization and transfer of experience		Actual results of the performed operation, assessment of actual effectiveness		Conclusions about the significance of the successes achieved or the causes of failures, adjustments to previously made decisions

3 Problem diagnosis

The initial stage in the development of management decisions is problem analysis and problem diagnosis relating to the decision justification process. Under problem situation is understood as the prevailing combination of facts of external and internal environment enterprises. The classification of problem situations is presented accordingly in Figure 2.7.

Figure 2.7 - Classification of problem situations

Problem- this is a discrepancy between the real combination of factors that is desirable or that which is optimal in terms of the characteristics of the enterprise. The content of the problem determines the formulation of the objectives of the decision.

1. With fully controllable and predictable parameters. They provide a deterministic result and are solved by adaptive methods.

2. With partially (40-80%) controlled and predictable parameters. The most frequently encountered.

3. With uncontrollable and unpredictable parameters. solved by heuristic methods.

Problems are classified according to the sources of occurrence:

- functioning problems are related to the fact that the actual results of the activity did not reach the required level;

- development problems - the discrepancy between potential opportunities and achieved goals. A complete classification of problems is shown in Figure 2.8

Figure 2.8 - Classification of problems

Problem Definition starts with fixation symptoms- separate private manifestations of trouble. It is also important to identify reason the above phenomena.

The information collected must be two sets of questions:

1. Characteristics of the problem: its content, degree of impact, place and time of occurrence;

2. Causes of the problem.

In addition to identifying the causes problem factors) it is necessary to determine the degree of their influence (individual and cumulative), possible vectors of their development. Every phenomenon has two causes: one obvious, the other genuine.

Finding out the reasons allows you to determine the purpose of the decision, its type and class. Correctly formulated goals should meet the following requirements:

- concreteness - fixing those parameters that the objects of solutions should have;

- reachability and tension;

- consistency, consistency, single-mindedness;

- time binding.

The possibility of achieving the set goal is determined by obstacles and contributing goals.

4. Factors of making a managerial decision

objective are factors independent of the decision maker. An idea about them is given by the collected information about the state of the system, external factors affecting it.

First of all, this external operating conditions of the company. They are the factors of the immediate (microenvironment) environment (consumers, suppliers, competitors, the state) and macroenvironment factors (politics, economics, etc.).

Internal the state of the system, as already mentioned, is determined by the state of each of its elements and the optimality of the connections between them. In relation to the organization, tools (machines, mechanisms, devices), objects of labor (raw materials, materials), as well as people who, with the help of tools, transform the object of labor into finished product.

subjective are factors associated with the decision maker and affecting the adequacy of his perception of the objective position of the system. The most important of which are innovativecapabilities manager, skill creatively deal with problem solving, ability to appreciate the situation make up your mindon reasonable risk, Availability logical thinking. IN modern conditions necessary is computer literacy level, possession of a personal computer (PC).

Finally, subjective factors include personaltraits decision maker, which are made up of mental processes, mental states And mental properties.

Mental processes are divided into three types: cognitive, strong-willed And emotional. In its turn cognitive include Feel, perception, memory, thinking, performance, imagination, attention. related to mental processes motivational processes, determining focus interests, preferences, claims personalities who often have a decisive influence on the formation of the type of leader and determine the criteria that he will be guided by when choosing alternatives

Mental states is the reaction of the individual to external and internal factors aimed at achieving a certain result. These states are varied and changeable ( optimism, cheerfulness, fatigue, mental satiation, apathy, depression, anxiety and so on) .

Mental properties are divided into are common And individual. TO general relate restrictions on individual capabilities, forcing a person to become a member of the organization, to accept its norms and values ​​in order to meet their needs.

Individual properties - the degree of limitation of opportunities compared to others, the level of development and the degree of severity in individual person mental properties (features of perception, emotional reactivity, speed of thinking), temperament, character, level of claims and system of preferences.

Here manifest two important patterns.

1. The individual qualities of people are manifested to a much greater extent in the decision-making process, they affect the way the decision is made.

2. The individual characteristics of people are so interconnected and inseparable from each other that they affect the methods of decision-making only in total; this allows you to weaken the impact of the negative aspects of the intellect and increase the influence strengths.

special factor impact is Wednesday, which is characterized four indicators: certainty, risk, uncertainty, conflict.

Certainty is expressed in the fact that the result can be predicted in advance and the degree of predictability of this prediction is close to unity. It depends on the completeness and reliability of the information and the accumulated experience of actions based on this information.

Under risk conditions are understood when a positive result of the decision can be calculated with a certain degree of probability, which ranges from 0 to 1.

Uncertainty- this is a situation where the number of factors influencing the process is large and the relationships between them are so complex that it is almost impossible to obtain any reliable information about these relationships. All innovative solutions accepted under conditions of uncertainty.

Level extremeness influences the nature of decisions made and has three classes:

Class I - the number of possible scenarios is limited, they are known or predictable, thus preparation for solving problems (snowfall in winter) is possible. Situations can be resolved by situational management methods;

Class II - the number of possible options is large, and therefore there is no way to think them over and prepare for solving problems. Situations require special professional psychological training, including the development of scenarios for people's behavior in extreme situations, the creation of regulatory documentation that regulates people's actions, the formation of special reserves of all kinds;

Class III - unpredictable situations, solved completely on an intuitive level

Conflict occurs within the organization. The conflict with the agents of the external environment realizes itself in risk and uncertainty. Naturally, this refers to a destructive conflict, when the parties cannot find a compromise solution.

5 Information Support management decision

In the course of solving the problem, it is required to determine the source of information, choose a method for accessing the source of information and decide on the form of presentation of the initial, intermediate and output information for decision makers and other users. When solving each of these issues, first of all, they proceed from the requirements for accuracy, reliability, reliability, validity and persuasiveness of the solution being developed.

Conceptual classification scheme sources and methods of obtaining information is presented in Figure 2.9. It follows from the analysis of this scheme that, in principle, there are only three sources information:

Empirical data (we will briefly denote "EXPERIENCE");

Knowledge, personal experience and intuition of the decision maker ("LPR");

Expert advice (briefly - "EXPERTISE").

It is important to choose the right source and establish a method for obtaining the necessary information. In order to meaningfully resolve this issue, it is advisable to analyze the quality characteristics of the principal ways of obtaining information.

Figure 2.9 - Classification of sources and methods of obtaining information

The most significant of the characteristics of these methods are presented in table 2.3.

Table 2.3 - Characteristics of methods for obtaining information

On the first stage (justification of the decision) the object of collection, processing and analysis is first order information (I1). This is the most general information, containing a wide range of information and allowing, firstly, to formulate the situation and, secondly, to determine the problem that is relevant at the moment. This information includes information about the deviation of the actual state of the system from the standard, as well as the causes of the problem, which are explained either by the impact external environment or disruption of the functioning of the internal environment.

Stage two (decision making)) requires the collection of a completely different type of information. Since the content of this stage is the formulation of directions for solving the problem, the information second order (II) concerns the detection of defects in the communication system of the organization and the collection of information on the ways in which these violations can be eliminated. The second-order information is undoubtedly much more specialized and deals with a narrower range of problems, but should be much more detailed and specific.

Information third order (IS) should give an idea of ​​what advantages and disadvantages, from the Fenian point of view, the limitations and criteria each of the alternatives under analysis has. This may be information about the size and composition of resources, the time required to implement the decision, social consequences choosing one or the other alternative. Regardless of the Stage at which the information is selected, certain requirements are imposed on it, non-compliance with which can lead to incorrect results in the decision-making process.

Particular attention should be paid to forecasting information designed to formulate the conditions for future decisions based on those decisions that have been made today. In other words, when making a decision today, we are modeling situations in the near future or a more distant period.

6 Generation of management decision alternatives and criteria for their evaluation

The ability of decision makers to generate new, non-standard solutions is often identified with art. Apparently, this is due to the fact that the task of forming the initial set of alternatives not amenable to complete formalization. Let's define system requirements, which the set of alternatives must correspond to.

Firstly, the set of alternatives should be as large as possible wide. In the future, this will provide the necessary freedom of choice for decision makers and will minimize the possibility of missing out on the “best” solution. The first, fundamental requirement is in conflict with the natural restrictions on time, place and opportunities in which decision makers usually have to work.

this implies second requirement to the original set of alternatives. This set should be visible so that the decision maker has more time to evaluate the preference of alternatives, and the performers have more time to put the found best solution into practice. In accordance with the systemic principle of decomposition, it is first recommended to form a set of alternatives, all elements of which potentially, according to their appearance, the possibilities hidden in them, ensure the achievement of the goal.

In cases of deterministic, stochastic or naturally indeterminate "mechanisms of the situation", the method of forming the initial set of alternatives involves performing fairly simple actions. To some extent, they all come down to a series of purposeful modifications of controllable factors that determine the effectiveness of the operation. At the same time, the decision maker explores the possibility of simultaneously influencing the “controlled” component of these factors, since it is this method of control that most often leads to the emergence of positive emergent properties in future alternatives.

The set of options for solving the problem obtained in the course of engineering or operational synthesis will be called many "target alternatives" . After receiving the "target alternatives", one should select from them those options that are logically consistent and can be implemented within the time allotted for the operation. At the same time, the left alternatives must be necessarily satisfied with both active resources and respond common system preferences of the DM. These selected variants (from among the target ones) will be called "physically realizable" . Thus, the remaining options that potentially lead to the goal, but are physically unrealizable, are discarded.

Received subset "physically realizable alternatives" supplement with options that give the methods the necessary flexibility and stability in relation to possible changes in future conditions for the operation. As a result of the work done, they get what we will later call "original set of alternatives" .

Conditionally everything methods forming a set of alternatives can be divided into classes, differing in the degree of formalization of the applied technologies. We will discuss the various methods in more detail below.

Criterion comes from the Greek criterion - a measure for evaluating something. This term in the TPR denotes a significant, understandable decision maker, a well-interpreted and measurable characteristic operation results.

The scope of the criterion is a set of alternatives. The choice of criterion is a whole science and at the same time an art. For economic transactions, for example, such criteria as: "Efficiency", "Time", "Costs", "Losses" are suitable. The values ​​reflect in the minds of decision makers the degree of preference for alternatives.

From a philosophical standpoint, the criterion and evaluation of the criterion is one of the manifestations of the categories of quality and quantity. Quality as a set of properties that separate one object from another, inseparable from the object. Quantity same can be studied separately not tied to a specific object.

Measurement is the process of assigning such symbols to objects so that, by comparing the symbols by their values, it is possible to draw conclusions about the properties of the objects' relations with each other. If some alternative is preferable to another, then its assessment according to the selected criterion should take on a more acceptable value. Having chosen the alternative with the best criterion evaluation value, the decision maker will thereby choose the “best alternative” (28):

where a and b are alternatives;

W - evaluation (value) of the criterion;

u(W) - utility function;

W(a) And W(b) - the values ​​of the evaluations of the criterion for the alternatives;

u(W(a)) And u(W(b)) - function levels u(W) usefulness for the decision maker of the obtained values ​​of estimates W(a) And W(b) respectively

<=>- a sign of double implication (“if and only then”, “necessary and sufficient”);

¶≈> - a symbol that means a non-strict superiority of alternatives (it reads “no worse than...”, “no less preferable than...”).

If some alternative is not worse than some other, then the estimated utility for it should be no lower than for the less preferred one. We will definitely assume that the opposite is always true.

The verbal rule for choosing the “best alternative” and relation (28) also implies the formal rule (29), which defines the description of the “best alternative” a*:

, (29)

where A is the set of alternatives.

The criterion is needed by the decision maker, as it helps him personally make sure that the chosen solution is effective, gives the decision maker the opportunity to delegate powers to performers, organize and conduct effective control over the operation. Performers need a criterion in order to effectively act in accordance with the principle of inconclusiveness and freedom of acceptancedecisions, when the decision maker grants him the right to act proactively and independently within the framework of delegated powers.

The form of the criterion is chosen on the basis of Occam's principle: "Do not multiply entities unnecessarily."

A variety of scales have been developed and are widely used to measure the values ​​of criteria. quality scales. If the purpose of the measurement is to divide objects into classes according to a given attribute (for example, “suitable” - “not suitable”), then the so-called nominal, or classification scales.

If the purpose of measurement is to arrange objects of the same class in accordance with the intensity of the manifestation of some one common property in them, then the most expressive and economical will be ranking scale. For example, if the first value in an ordered series is assigned a rank equal to 1, the second - equal to 2, etc., then we get the so-called direct rank scale. Ranking is also possible reverse ranking scales, where the more preferred object is given a higher rather than a lower rank.

If the decision maker needs to get an idea of ​​how much or how many times the value achievable for alternatives is higher (or lower), they use quantitative scales. This interval scale, ratio scale and absolute (allows only identical transformations on its values).

Intermediate position is occupied numerical scoring scale .

7 Selection function

The choice function in decision theory is of fundamental importance. It is precisely on its construction that the solution of the problems of forming the initial set of alternatives, analyzing the conditions for conducting the operation, identifying and measuring the preferences of the decision maker is ultimately oriented.

According to the formal definition adopted in the TPR, selection function is a formula of the form (30):

, (30)

Where D – some (initial) set;

D° - subset ( D° D), having known or given properties.

specific kind the choice function that implements the mapping (30) depends on what the "mechanism of the situation" is (Figure 2.9).

Figure 2.9 - Forms for constructing a selection function

Selection function by scalar criterion will look like this:

, (31)

where extr φ(х) is the extremum of the given scalar function φ(х) of the vector argument х.

Among such problematic situations in management practice, there are often following tasks decision making:

Drawing up an optimal plan for the transportation of material resources;

Determination of the shortest routes on a given transport network;

Making decisions about optimal loading Vehicle cargo;

Making decisions on the appointment of performers to perform the work of some integral program or project, etc.

As a rule, all the listed problems are problems of discrete mathematical programming.

In tasks with vector criterion it is impossible to say with absolute certainty that a particular solution is really optimal. One of the solutions may be superior to the other in some criteria and inferior in other (other) criteria.

Difficulties in Formalizing the Choice Function:

Description of elements A sets A alternatives as functions of some of their characteristics X, and the boundaries of the set - in the form of a system of equalities h(x)=0 and/or inequalities q(x)≤0, where are the features x;

Setting in an explicit formal form the dependencies of the result values y(a) or criteria W(a) from characteristics x, formally describing alternatives;

Formal description of the type of utility function u(a) on alternatives in the form of some function φ(x) their characteristics X;

Interpretation of the formal extremum X* to present the decision maker as the best alternative A*.

Decision-making technology should be understood as the composition and sequence of procedures and actions that lead to solving the problems of the organization, in combination with methods for developing and optimizing alternatives.

For a leader, decision making is not an end in itself. The main concern of the manager is not the choice of alternative itself, but the resolution of a certain managerial problem. This often requires single solution, but a certain sequence of decisions, and, most importantly, their implementation, the achievement of the goal. Therefore, a decision is not a one-time act, but the result of a process that develops over time and has a certain structure. Based on the foregoing, we can give the following definition of this process.

The decision-making process is a cyclic sequence of actions of the subject of management aimed at resolving the problems of the organization, which consists in analyzing the situation, generating alternatives, making a decision and organizing its implementation.

Let us now consider the main stages of the decision-making process (DPR).

Analysis of the situation. For the need to make a management decision, a signal is needed about an external or internal influence that has caused or is capable of causing a deviation from the specified mode of the system's functioning, i.e. presence of a managerial situation. Therefore, one of the most important conditions for making the right decision is to analyze the situation.

Analysis of the management situation requires the collection and processing of information. This stage performs the function of the organization's perception of the external and internal environment.

Data on the state of the main environmental factors and the state of affairs in the organization are received by managers and specialists who classify, analyze information and compare the actual values ​​of controlled parameters with planned or predicted ones, which, in turn, allows them to identify problems that should be solved.

Problem identification. The first step towards solving a problem is its definition or diagnosis, complete and correct. As they say, to formulate a problem correctly means to half solve it. There are two views on the essence of the problem:

• 1. A problem is a situation when the set goals are not achieved, or there is a deviation of the parameters from a given level.
• 2. The problem should be seen as a potential opportunity to improve efficiency.

Combining both of these approaches, we will understand the problem of discrepancy between the desired and real states of the controlled object.

Identification and formulation of the problem is a complex procedure, since at the time of their appearance, many of the most important problems are poorly structured, i.e. do not have quantitative certainty, do not contain obvious goals, alternative ways to achieve them, ideas about the costs and effects associated with each of the options. Structuring the problem (bringing the problem to a quantitative definition of the main parameters) requires from managers not only knowledge and experience, but also talent, intuition, and creativity.

Diagnosing a complex problem in an organization begins with identifying its symptoms. Identifying symptoms helps identify the problem in general view. Common symptoms of a deterioration in the state of an organization and the emergence of problems are: a decrease in profit indicators, sales volume, labor productivity, quality of goods and services, an increase in costs, staff turnover, a level of marriage, numerous conflicts, etc.

Once symptoms are identified, managers should investigate the underlying causes of the problem and not rush to address only its external symptoms. We must not forget that all elements and activities in the organization are interconnected, and the solution of any problem in one part of the organization can cause problems in others. Therefore, when defining the problem to be solved, one should strive to ensure that the number of newly emerging problems is minimal.

Definition of selection criteria. Before considering possible options To solve the problem that has arisen, the manager needs to determine the indicators by which alternatives will be compared and the best of them will be selected. These indicators are called selection criteria. The criterion for evaluating the effectiveness of a solution should have a quantitative expression or a physical meaning, reflect the results of decisions to the fullest extent, and be simple and specific. Right choice performance criteria, according to experts, is equivalent to the correct formulation of the problem, since it often helps to determine the direction of solving the problem.

The criterion can be the minimum or maximum value of such indicators as costs, labor productivity, equipment use, production assets. There are many qualitative criteria for effectiveness: the qualitative composition of the staff, the authority of the manager, the quality of products. As a criterion, there may be one or more private indicators that are linked to each other and correspond to a system-wide criterion.

Development of alternatives. The next step is to develop a set of alternative solutions to the problem. It begins already when the formulation of the problem is refined and when the criterion for evaluating efficiency is chosen. The concept of alternative is very broad: objects, relations or actions can act as an alternative.

At the level of logic and intuition, the usefulness of individual options, the complexity of the implementation of others are preliminarily assessed, and among them options are selected, the possibility of which there is no doubt. Usually there are from three to seven such options, since in practice the manager does not have (and cannot have) such stocks of knowledge, time and money to formulate and evaluate each possible alternative.

Managers are well aware that the search for the optimal solution is very difficult, time consuming and expensive, so they are looking not for the optimal, but for a good enough, acceptable option that allows them to solve the problem. The selection criteria defined at the previous stage help to cut off unsuitable alternatives in advance.

Often there are situations in which the problem being solved has not been encountered before, i.e., possible alternatives are unknown, and they must first be formulated. In such cases, it is useful to use collective discussion of the problem and the generation of alternatives.

Choosing an alternative carried out using various methods. Possible solutions to the problem are evaluated, i.e. the advantages and disadvantages of each alternative are compared, and the probable results of their implementation are objectively determined. To compare the solution options, the selected efficiency criteria established at the third stage of the algorithm are used. With their help, the choice of the best alternative is made.

Since the choice is made, as a rule, on the basis of several, and not one criterion, it always has the character of a compromise. In addition, when evaluating possible solutions, the manager actually deals with predictive estimates of the compared values, and they are always probabilistic. Therefore, it is also important to take into account the risk factor, i.e. determine the likelihood of each alternative being implemented. Taking into account the risk factor leads to a revision of the very concept of the best solution: it is not the option that maximizes or minimizes a certain indicator, but the one that ensures its achievement with the highest degree of probability.

Decision approval. IN modern systems management as a result of the division of labor, a situation has developed in which some employees of the organization prepare, develop a decision, accept or approve others, and perform third ones. In other words, the manager often approves and is responsible for a solution that he did not develop; the specialists who prepared and analyzed the decision do not participate in its implementation, and the performers do not take part in the preparation and discussion of the decisions being prepared.

Management decision-making in an organization is often mistakenly viewed as an individual rather than a group process. Meanwhile, although the main stages of PPR by organizations and individuals coincide, the formation of decisions in an organization, as previously noted, differs from individual decision-making. It is the organization, and not the individual leader, who must respond to emerging problems, and not one leader, but all members of the organization must strive to improve the efficiency of its work. In order for the decision taken by the leader to be implemented, joint actions of all members of the organization are necessary. Therefore, in group decision-making processes, the coordination stage plays an important role.

Recognition of a solution is rarely automatic, even if it is clearly a good one. Therefore, the leader must convince the correctness of his point of view, prove to employees that his decision brings benefits to both the organization and its individual members. Practice shows that the likelihood of a quick and effective implementation of a decision increases significantly when the performers have the opportunity to express their opinion on the decision being made, make suggestions, comments, etc. Then decision perceived as "one's own" and not imposed "from above". That's why The best way agreement on the decision is to involve employees in the process of its adoption. Of course, this method should not be absolutized: there are situations when it is impossible or irrational and the manager is forced to make a decision on his own, without resorting to discussions and approvals, but we must remember that the systematic ignoring of the opinions of subordinates leads to an authoritarian leadership style.

Implementation management. The process of solving a problem does not end with the choice of an alternative: to obtain a real effect, the decision made must be implemented. That is the main task of this stage.

For the successful implementation of the solution, it is necessary to determine a set of works and resources, distribute them by performers and deadlines, i.e., provide for who, where, when and what actions should be taken, what resources are needed for this. If we are talking oh enough big decisions, this may require the development of a program to implement the solution. During the implementation of this plan, the leader should monitor how the decision is being implemented, and if necessary, provide assistance and make certain adjustments.

Monitoring and evaluation of results. Even after the decision is finally put into action, the decision-making process cannot be considered completely completed, since it is still necessary to verify whether it justifies itself. This goal is served by the control stage, which performs the function in this process. feedback. At this stage, the consequences of the decision are measured and evaluated, or the actual results are compared with those that the manager hoped to receive.

It should not be forgotten that the solution is always temporary. The term of its effective action can be considered equal to the period of relative constancy of the problem situation. Beyond its limits, the solution may cease to have an effect and even turn into its opposite - not contribute to solving the problem, but exacerbate it. You can take a lot of reasonable and useful decisions, but without a rationally organized system for monitoring the execution, they will remain in the "bowels of office work" and will not give the expected effect.

Decision-making technology should be understood as the composition and sequence of procedures leading to solving the organization's problems, in combination with methods for developing and optimizing alternatives. The composition and sequence of operations of the decision-making process were analyzed in detail in topic 4. Here, methods for making managerial decisions will be considered in detail.

In the process of solving complex problems in order to strengthen the ability of managers to make informed and objective decisions, various scientific methods for their development and optimization can be used, the arsenal of which is usually divided into two main classes:

modeling methods;

methods expert assessments.

Methods for modeling and optimizing solutions

Modeling methods(also called operations research methods) are based on the use of mathematical models to solve the most common management problems.

The development and optimization of a solution to a specific problem by modeling methods is a rather complicated procedure, which can be represented by a sequence of the following main steps:

formulation of the problem;

determination of the efficiency criterion of the analyzed operation;

quantitative measurement of factors influencing the operation under study;

construction of a mathematical model of the studied object (operation);

quantitative solution of the model and finding the optimal solution;

checking the adequacy of the model and the solution found for the analyzed situation;

correction and updating of the model.

The number of concrete possible models is almost as great as the number of problems for which they are designed. Their detailed consideration is beyond the scope of this course and is the subject of a special academic discipline, so we will name only the most common types of models.

Game theory models. Most business transactions can be considered as actions performed in the face of opposition. Counteractions should include, for example, factors such as an accident, fire, theft, strike, breach of contractual obligations, etc. However, the most massive case of opposition is competition. Therefore, one of the most important conditions on which the success of an organization depends is competitiveness. Obviously, the ability to predict the actions of competitors is a significant advantage for any commercial organization. When making a decision, one should choose an alternative that allows to reduce the degree of opposition, which, in turn, will reduce the degree of risk. This opportunity is provided to the manager by game theory, whose mathematical models encourage him to analyze possible alternatives of his actions, taking into account the possible responses of competitors. Originally developed for military-strategic purposes, game theory models are also used in business to predict the reaction of competitors to decisions made, for example, to price changes, launching new goods and services, entering new market segments, etc.

So, when deciding to change the price level for their products, the company's management must predict the reaction and possible responses of the main competitors. And if, using the game theory model, it is established that, for example, competitors will not do the same when the price rises, the organization, in order not to fall into a disadvantageous position, must abandon this alternative and look for another solution to the problem.

However, it should be noted that these models are used quite rarely, because they turn out to be too simplistic compared to real economic situations, so volatile that the resulting forecasts are not very reliable.

Queue theory models. Queuing theory (or optimal service) models are used to find the optimal number of service channels for a certain level of demand for them. Situations in which such models can be useful include, for example, determining the number of telephone lines needed to answer customer calls, trolleybuses on the route, needed to prevent the accumulation of long lines, or tellers in a bank, so that customers do not wait until they can be dealt with, etc. The problem here is that additional service channels (more telephone lines, trolleybuses or bank employees) require additional resources, and their loading is uneven (excessive capacity in some periods of time and the appearance of queues in others). Therefore, it is necessary to find a solution that balances the additional costs of expanding service channels and the losses from their lack. Models of queuing theory are precisely the tool for finding such an optimal solution.

Inventory management models. Any organization must maintain some level of inventory of its resources in order to avoid downtime or interruptions in technological processes and the sale of goods or services. For a manufacturing company, certain stocks of materials, components, finished products, for a bank - cash, for a hospital - medicines, tools, etc. Maintaining a high level of inventory increases the reliability of the organization and eliminates the losses associated with their shortage. On the other hand, the creation of stocks requires additional costs for storage, warehousing, transportation, insurance, etc. In addition, surplus stocks bind working capital and prevent profitable investment of capital, for example, in securities or bank deposits.

Inventory management models allow you to find the optimal solution, i.e. such a level of stock that minimizes the cost of its creation and maintenance at a given level of continuity of production processes.

Linear programming models. These models are used to find the optimal solution in a situation of allocation of scarce resources in the presence of competing needs. For example, using a linear programming model, a production manager can determine the optimal production program, i.e. calculate how many products of each item should be produced to obtain the greatest profit with known volumes of materials and parts, the fund of equipment operation time and the profitability of each type of product.

Most of the optimization models developed for practical application are reduced to linear programming problems. However, taking into account the nature of the analyzed operations and the prevailing forms of the dependence of factors, other types of models can be used. With non-linear forms of dependence of the result of the operation on the main factors - non-linear programming models; if it is necessary to include the time factor in the analysis - dynamic programming models; with the probabilistic influence of factors on the result of the operation - mathematical statistics models(correlation-regression analysis).

Expert methods in decision making

In difficult situations of choice, the decision maker may not have all the necessary information or experience, which increases the risk of making an erroneous decision. In addition, many problems that need to be solved are completely or partially not amenable to quantitative analysis, and, therefore, do not allow the use of modeling methods. In such cases, expert technologies bring a significant effect.

The use of expert technologies in the decision-making process is advisable mainly in the following cases.

Definition of goals. When developing the most important strategic decisions it is very important to accurately define and formulate the goals that the decision maker seeks to achieve. For complex situations, the “goal tree” method has been developed and applied, which makes it possible to determine the hierarchical structure of the goal system.

Expert forecast. When making decisions, quite often there is a need to determine and evaluate the trend of the expected development of the situation, as well as the results of the implementation of the considered alternatives.

Development of scenarios for the development of the situation. When developing a solution, it is necessary to identify the main factors that influence the situation and determine the dynamics of their possible change.

Generation of alternatives. In the event of a new, previously unseen problem, there are no ready-made options for solving it. They still need to be found and formulated.

Formation of evaluation systems. For a comparative assessment of alternative solutions, as well as for assessing the degree of achievement of the goal, an assessment system is required, which includes:

criteria characterizing the object of assessment;

a scale for measuring each criterion;

rules for choosing the most preferred alternatives.

Making collective decisions. Open discussion of alternative solutions, taking into account the results of the examination, coordination of various points of view, search for a compromise, etc.

The essence of expert decision-making methods is to obtain answers from specialists to the questions posed to them. Information received from experts, in order to minimize errors and the influence of the subjective factor, is processed using special logical and mathematical procedures and converted into a form convenient for choosing a solution.

For the preparation and conduct of the examination, an organizational group is formed that provides conditions for the effective work of experts. The main tasks of this group are:

statement of the problem, determination of the purpose and objectives of the examination;

development of the examination procedure;

selection, testing of competence and formation of a group of experts;

conducting a survey of experts and obtaining their assessments;

processing, formalization and interpretation of the received information.

Depending on the procedure and methods of organizing and conducting an examination, the following methods of group survey are distinguished among the methods of expert assessments.

commission method. It involves regular meetings of experts to hold group discussions on the problem under discussion and develop an agreed solution during such discussions. This method, when used skillfully, contributes to the creation of a creative environment in a group of experts and the development of alternative solutions. However, the commission method also has disadvantages. Among them, first of all, is the lack of anonymity. It can lead to rather strong manifestations of conformity on the part of experts who join the opinion of more competent or authoritative specialists, even if they have their own opposite point of view. The discussion often comes down to polemics among the most authoritative experts. Another significant negative factor is the different activity of experts, which is not always associated with their competence. In addition, the publicity of statements may lead to the reluctance of some experts to abandon the previously expressed opinion, even if it has changed during the discussion. Therefore, the organizers of the examination should pay special attention to the selection of experts: to attract specialists who have independence of opinion, resistance to the opinion of the majority (nonconformists), who are able not to succumb to the “magic of authority” and, in addition, who are able to work in a team, psychologically compatible.

brainstorming method(collective generation of ideas). This method is used, as a rule, in cases where a new, little-studied problem is being solved, or it is required to find a new, non-trivial solution. A distinctive feature of the brainstorming method is that it prohibits criticism of the proposed alternatives in the process of their nomination, which ensures the most complete identification and use of the creative potential of experts and the possibility of free expression and the emergence of the most "crazy" ideas. Conducting an examination by brainstorming involves the following sequence of steps

stage- formation of an expert group. Empirically found that the most productive is a group of 10-15 people. It is recommended to include both specialists in the field of the problem being solved and specialists in other fields of knowledge in the composition of the group, which contributes to a wider study and a variety of proposed alternatives. At the same time, it should be taken into account that the expert group should be formed from specialists of approximately the same rank, if they know each other. If the experts do not know each other, they may be of different ranks and positions, but then their participation in the group should remain anonymous.

stage- Drafting a problem statement. It is made up of the problem analysis group. The note contains:

description of the brainstorming method and the rules for its implementation;

a brief description of the problem situation and the reasons for its occurrence;

a description of the likely consequences of the problem that has arisen (in this case, some exaggeration is considered useful so that the need to find a solution is felt more acutely);

analysis of experience in solving similar problems (if any);

a list of possible alternatives for solving the problem;

formulation of the problem situation in the form of a main question and several additional questions.

stage- generation of ideas. It begins with the facilitator revealing the content of the problematic note and drawing the attention of the expert group members to the need to comply with the following rules of conduct:

a) the statements of the participants in the discussion should be clear and concise;

b) each expert can speak several times, but not in a row;

c) criticism of previous speeches and any skeptical remarks and remarks are not allowed;

d) it is forbidden to read prepared speeches.

At this stage, a large role is given to the leader, who must be a good psychologist, get in touch with the audience and awaken people's need to find a solution to the problem, as well as create a creative and relaxed atmosphere in the group. However, the role of the leader is almost exhausted by this, because. after the discussion of the problem and the generation of ideas, he should only monitor the observance of the rules of conduct by the participants.

The greater the number and variety of opinions and proposals, the better, because the broader scope of the problem and the greater the likelihood of a valuable idea. The duration of the idea generation stage (and, in fact, this is brainstorming) is recommended from 20 to 90 minutes, depending on the number and activity of the participants.

The expressed ideas are recorded on a tape recorder so as not to miss a single valuable proposal and to have the possibility of their subsequent systematization.

stage- systematization of ideas. At this stage, the problem analysis group systematizes the proposals received from the experts in the following sequence:

a) a list of all the ideas expressed is compiled;

b) each idea is formulated in commonly used terms;

c) duplicate or complementary ideas are identified and combined into one complex idea;

d) features are determined by which ideas can be classified (grouped);

e) on these grounds, ideas are combined into groups;

f) in each group, ideas are ordered from more general to particular.

stage- destruction (destruction) of ideas. By “destruction” is meant a special procedure for evaluating ideas for practical feasibility, when each of them is subjected to comprehensive criticism, that is, as if tested for strength. At this stage, the experts - participants in the brainstorming session - change. This is already a new group, formed from highly qualified specialists in the field of the problem being solved, numbering 20-25 people. The essence of this stage is that each of the proposed ideas is considered from the point of view of obstacles to its implementation and, at the same time, a counter-idea can be expressed that removes these obstacles or restrictions. The process of destruction continues until each of the ideas is analyzed and criticized.

stage- drawing up a list of practically applicable ideas. At this stage, the problem analysis team works again. Its actions are carried out as follows:

a) a summary table of the proposed alternatives, their corresponding criticisms and rebuttals and assessments of practical applicability is compiled;

b) unrealistic, practically inapplicable solution alternatives are crossed out;

c) a final list of possible alternatives is drawn up.

Currently, one of the most common methods of collective peer review is the Delphi method.

Delphi method. The advantage of this method is that it allows generalizing the individual opinions of individual experts into an agreed group opinion. The Delphi method is characterized by three specific features:

Anonymity of experts;

adjustable feedback;

statistical processing of the survey results and the formation of a group response.

The anonymity of the experts lies in the fact that during the examination the participants of the expert group are unknown to each other and their interaction in the course of the survey is completely excluded. This is achieved by using special questionnaires, as well as other methods of individual survey, for example, in a dialogue mode with a computer.

Regulated feedback is provided by conducting several rounds of the survey, the results of which are reported to the experts.

The statistical characteristic of the group response is that the group of experts recommends a solution based on the opinion of the majority, i.e., such an alternative that the majority of the group members would choose.

For example, with the help of the Delphi method, an examination is carried out in order to evaluate possible alternatives for solving some complex problem and choose the most preferable one. In this case, the survey is conducted in several rounds (usually 4), at each of which the experts are informed about the results of the previous one and asked to justify their opinion, which makes it possible to reduce the spread of individual assessments. But this does not mean that the expert must agree with someone else's opinion, he can remain with his own. On the other hand, as a result of such a procedure, an expert can change his assessment without publicity, without “losing face”, because the survey is anonymous. In each round of the survey, the expert gives his quantitative assessment of the parameters of the compared alternatives (for example, the implementation period or the level of risk) according to a predetermined scale. Get a number series, which is processed as follows. Suppose, as a result, 17 estimates were obtained: n 1, n2 n17. All these ratings are arranged in descending order. The middle member of such a series - n9 - is called the median. The median divides the series in such a way that the number of ratings with a larger and smaller feature value is the same. Then the series is divided into 4 equal parts - quartiles. In the middle quartiles adjacent to the median, the most preferred alternatives are collected, which are taken into account. Thus, the median serves as a characteristic of the group response, and the range of quartiles is an indicator of the spread of individual estimates.

scripting method. The essence of this method is the writing by experts of scenarios for the development of the analyzed situation in order to determine the trends of possible development and form a picture of the states to which it can come under the influence of certain factors, including under the influence of certain management decisions or in their absence. A statesman who makes a responsible political decision, and a businessman who chooses a strategy for the development of a company, a military leader who analyzes the course of a military operation, and a designer who lays the foundations for a fundamentally new facility, when developing fundamentally important decisions, as a rule, try to predict a possible scenario for the development of events in order to to make a decision that leads to success. Therefore, this method is widely used to develop strategic decisions in various fields activities: politics, military affairs, economics and is implemented in two main modifications:

method of obtaining a consensus opinion"- several independent groups of experts develop scenarios for the possible development of events, and then, using the procedure used in the Delphi method, develop an agreed scenario;

iterative script merging method- experts first identify the most important factors that influence the development of the problem situation, and for each of them a corresponding scenario is developed, and then these scenarios gradually converge, are coordinated with each other and, as a result, are combined.

Scenario building is a creative process that does not follow any strict formal procedure. In each specific case, the process scheme is formed depending on the forecasting object, the availability of information technologies and mathematical models, the personal qualities of the members of the expert group and other factors. model system. Proposing alternatives is a purely creative process in which informal knowledge, experience, scientific intuition and expert intelligence play a leading role. The information generated by specialists is then quantified using models. The implementation of this procedure is connected with the problem of translating qualitative concepts into quantitative values ​​of system parameters. For example, how one or another political course of the country's top leadership is expressed in specific values ​​of control parameters, i.e. in the distribution of the state budget, tax legislation, the value of bank loan discount rates, the amount of import and export duties, etc. There are no strictly logical and even less formal ways to solve this problem, although sometimes it is possible to use mathematical optimization methods.

The forecasting process usually ends with the preparation of the final document, which contains:

goals and objectives of the forecast;

a brief description of the forecasting object, a hypothesis about the mechanism of its functioning and development, the adopted system of assumptions and restrictions;

a detailed description of the developed scenarios and the development trends corresponding to them, indicating possible future problem situations;

court method. This method is based on the use of court proceedings. At the same time, one part of the experts - supporters of the solution alternative under discussion - act as a "defense", citing all kinds of arguments in its favor, the other - opponents - as an "accusation", citing arguments against, and the third part of the experts - the "jury" - act in as a jury, evaluating the validity of the arguments and making a final decision.

Expert assessments (even taking into account the procedure for their coordination and statistical processing) are largely subjective, so when using such methods, a very important question arises: who should be considered an expert and how to choose a “good” expert, or, in other words, how to evaluate quality of an expert?

Summing up the study of expert methods, it should be noted that their significance lies in the fact that they enhance the element of collegiality in the process of making complex decisions and, using intuition and collective generation of ideas, allow finding new, original solutions to problems that cannot be reached with the help of only logical reasoning.

At the same time, it is rather difficult to establish clear boundaries between all the considered methods for developing and justifying decisions (modeling methods and expert methods), since the solution of the complex problems of modern management also requires the complex use of various logical, statistical, mathematical and heuristic techniques. Therefore, it is not just one, but the prevailing group of methods that forms this or that method. The areas of application of decision-making methods depend mainly on the nature of the problems being solved and the conditions for decision-making, which is reflected in Fig. 6.1.

Figure 4.1. Areas of application of management decision-making methods

Questions for self-examination

What are the procedures in operations research?

In what situations can the game theory model be applied?

What types of calculations can be made using a linear programming model?

What is the fundamental difference between the methods of modeling and optimizing solutions and expert methods?

Name the main methods of expert assessments.

What is the essence of the brainstorming method?

What features of the examination are inherent in the Delphi method?

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Ministry of Education Russian Federation Ural

State Law Academy

Topic: Technology for the development and adoption of managerial decisions

Completed by a student: VF group 12

Vaganova K.I.

Checked: Pustuev A.A.

Yekaterinburg 2011

Introduction

1. Technologies for the development of management decisions

1.1 Essence, goals, objectives and principles for the development of management decisions

1.2 Classification of technologies for the development of management decisions

2. Characteristics of making a managerial decision

2.1 Decision-making process and its structure

2.2 Basic procedures for the management decision-making process

3. Optimization and decision making

3.1 Management apparatus and decision-making process

3.2 Methods for modeling and optimizing solutions

Conclusion

List of sources used

Introduction

Among the many problems modern foundations management, the most important are the development, adoption and optimization of a management decision, which is the main tool for managing influence. This topic is relevant today, since in all spheres of human activity there is such a thing as management. For example, each employee manages his subordinates, and how effective the result will depend on his approach to employees, that is, on his management of them.

In the first chapter, the author considers technologies for the development of management decisions, in which he highlights the essence, goals of the task and the classification of technologies for the development of management decisions. The second chapter deals with the characteristics of managerial decision-making, and the third chapter discusses optimization and managerial decision-making.

The paper also presents the statements of great authors, such as Berlin S.I., Belonozhkin Yu.N., Vorobyov A.S., Bogdanov S.S., Petrov A.N., Sigov V.I. and Krolivetsky E.N.

1. TECHNOLOGY FOR DEVELOPING MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

1.1 ESSENCE, GOALS, OBJECTIVES AND PRINCIPLES OF MANAGEMENT DECISION DEVELOPMENT TECHNOLOGY

Technologies for the development of management decisions largely determine the effectiveness of management of organizational, technological, information potential modern organizations and represent a set of interrelated, purposeful and logically consistent actions that ensure the development and implementation of management decisions. From the position systems approach technology for the development of effective management decisions - tasks.

The following stages of technology for the development of managerial decisions or problems are distinguished:

Clarification of the task and choice of goal;

Listing or inventing alternatives;

Analysis of alternatives;

Choosing the best solution;

Presentation of results.

A managerial decision is a decision made in a social system and aimed at strategic planning, by human resourses, production and service activities, communication with the external environment, a set of interrelated, targeted and logically consistent management actions, ensures the implementation of management tasks.

The management decision development technology structurally includes:

The subject of the decision is a specific topic, problem, complex theoretical issue or practical situation that does not allow obtaining the desired result under the given conditions;

The subject of the decision, that is, persons entitled to initiate decisions and implement them;

The object of the decision is the executors of the decision;

The purpose of preparing the decision;

Reasons for the preparation and implementation of the decision;

In accordance with the requirements of modern technologies, we will dwell on the systemic features of the development of management decisions, which some authors include integrity, coherence, structure, organicity, efficiency, economy, timeliness, validity, reality, universality, and so on.

As a process, technology for the development and adoption of a managerial decision is an algorithm, a sequence of certain actions, a search, grouping and analysis of sufficient and necessary information for development, approval and implementation.

In technologies for the development of management decisions, their various bases or essences are distinguished. Thus, the economic essence of a management decision in development technology is manifested in the fact that the preparation and implementation of any management decision requires financial, material and other costs. The implementation of an effective management decision will bring the company direct or indirect income, and an erroneous decision will bring losses. The organizational essence of the management decision in the development technology is manifested in the fact that personnel is involved in this work.

The technological essence of a management decision in the technology of its development determines the provision of personnel with the necessary technical, information tools and resources for the preparation and implementation of a management decision.

Thus, the technology for developing management decisions is important integral part any management activities. This is a complex technological process, the center around which the life of the organization revolves. The decision can be viewed as a product of management activity, and its development and adoption - as a process leading to the emergence of this product.

1.2 CLASSIFICATION OF TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MANAGEMENT DECISIONS

The classification of technologies for developing management decisions is a grouping depending on the functional orientation of decisions, the nature of their preparation and implementation, the duration and level of decisions made. . Technologies are constantly improving.

Solution development is a psychological process. Sometimes in the best technology, developers are driven by logic, sometimes by feelings. Therefore, it is not surprising that the methods used to develop and make managerial decisions vary from spontaneous to highly logical.

Technologies for the development of tactical management decisions are specific ways to move towards the problems posed; they are developed and adopted at the middle level of the organization's management. They are prescriptive in nature. Technologies for the development of operational management decisions are the development of specific actions of departments and divisions taken at the lowest level of organization management.

Technologies for the development of management decisions in terms of frequency or repeatability of execution, complexity, difficulty of the decision being made are classified into technologies for the development of routine, selective, adaptive and innovative management decisions.

Technologies for the development of management decisions by the number of decision makers are classified into technologies for the development of individual, collective, individual management decisions.

Technologies for the development of management decisions by duration are classified into technologies for the development of long-term, medium-term and short-term management decisions. At the same time, the technology for developing long-term, medium-term and short-term management decisions is determined by the timing of their implementation. Long-term are developed for a period of more than 5 years, medium-term - from one to 5 years, short-term for a period of one year.

Technologies for the development of modern management decisions are based on judgments, choices, knowledge, and accumulated experience. Such decisions in modern technologies sometimes seem intuitive, because their logic is not obvious. The developer uses knowledge of what has happened in similar situations in the past to predict the outcome of alternative choices in the current situation. Based on common sense, he chooses an alternative that has brought success in the past. Judgment as the basis of management decision is useful because business situations tend to be repetitive. For example, a previously developed and adopted solution may work again no worse than before. The development of balanced solutions in technology, taking into account the balance of interests of stakeholders, is effective for highly qualified performers. Quite often, impulsive decisions are used in technologies for developing management decisions, based on an unexpected insight of the developer, a combination of circumstances. Sometimes impulsive decisions are the release of long overdue ideas. These solutions fit well with technologies that easily generate a wide variety of ideas, of course, with their detailed verification, refinement and evaluation. Another element of improving the technologies for the development of managerial decisions is the control and clarifying actions on the generation of ideas. In such technological developments, originality, innovation can take place, they can be very useful. Riskiness and caution are effective in general positive attitude management and performers, when a possible failure does not significantly worsen the material or social condition of the team, while careful evaluation of all options, a critical approach to development are required. At the same time, in the basis of improving the system technological development and making effective management decisions are basic principles consistency, integrity, functionality, manageability, purposefulness, adequacy, observability, hierarchy, complexity, alternativeness, and others.

2. CHARACTERISTICS OF MANAGEMENT DECISION-MAKING

2.1 DECISION-MAKING PROCESS AND ITS STRUCTURE

Decision-making technology should be understood as the composition and sequence of procedures leading to solving the organization's problems, in combination with methods for developing and optimizing alternatives.

The decision-making process is a cyclic sequence of actions of the subject of management aimed at resolving the problems of the organization and consisting in analyzing the situation, generating alternatives, making a decision and organizing its implementation.

The most holistic and visual representation of the decision-making process is given by a diagram that reflects its main stages and the order in which they follow (Fig. 1).

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Rice. 1. Composition and sequence of procedures for the process of making managerial decisions

From this diagram, we can clearly see the analysis of the situation in two ways.

2.2 MAIN PROCEDURES OF THE MANAGEMENT DECISION-MAKING PROCESS

Analysis of the situation. It is the most important condition for making the right decision.

Analysis of the management situation requires the collection and processing of information. This stage performs the function of the organization's perception of the external and internal environment. Data on the state of the main environmental factors and the state of affairs in the organization are received by managers and specialists who classify, analyze information and compare the actual values ​​of controlled parameters with planned or predicted ones, which in turn allows them to identify problems that should be solved.

Problem identification. The first step towards solving a problem is its definition or diagnosis, complete and correct. As they say, to formulate a problem correctly is to half solve it. Deeply investigate the causes of the problem and do not rush to eliminate only its symptoms.

We must also not forget that all elements and activities in the organization are interconnected and the solution of any problem in one part of the organization can cause problems in others. Therefore, when defining the problem to be solved, one should strive to ensure that the number of newly emerging problems is minimal.

Development of alternatives. The next step is to develop a set of alternative solutions to the problem.

Along with the situation when options for solving a problem are known in advance or are discovered without much difficulty, there are often situations in which the problem being solved has not been encountered before, i.e. possible alternatives are unknown and must be preliminarily formulated. In such cases, it can be very useful to collectively discuss the problem and generate alternatives.

Choice of an alternative. Having developed possible solutions to the problem, they need to be evaluated, i.e. compare the advantages and disadvantages of each alternative and objectively analyze the likely results of their implementation. To compare solutions, it is necessary to have standards or criteria by which they can be compared. Such selection criteria were established in the third stage. With their help, the choice of the best alternative is made.

Decision approval. In other words, the manager often approves and bears responsibility for a solution that he did not develop, the specialists who prepared and analyzed the solution do not participate in its implementation, and the performers do not take part in the preparation and discussion of the decisions being prepared. Management decision-making in an organization is often mistakenly viewed as an individual rather than a group process. the best way to agree on a decision is to involve employees in the process of making it. Of course, this method should not be absolutized: there are situations when it is impossible or not rational and the manager is forced to make a decision on his own, without resorting to discussions and agreements, but we must remember that the systematic ignoring of the opinions of subordinates leads to an authoritarian leadership style.

Implementation management. The process of solving a problem does not end with the choice of an alternative: to obtain a real effect, the decision made must be implemented. That is the main task of this stage.

Monitoring and evaluation of results. Even after the decision is finally put into action, the decision-making process cannot be considered completely completed, since it is still necessary to verify whether it justifies itself. This goal is served by the control stage, which performs the function of feedback in this process. At this stage, the consequences of the decision are measured and evaluated, or the actual results are compared with those that the manager hoped to receive.

3. OPTIMIZATION AND DECISION MAKING

3.1 GOVERNANCE AND DECISION-MAKING PROCESS

Considering the apparatus of managing an organization as a system for making and implementing decisions means examining the structure of management based on the forms, methods and intra-organizational relations on the basis of which decision-making processes are implemented in it.

The formation of organizational management structures is very closely related to the use of the concept and the basic concepts of decision making. Under these conditions, the main content of the management process is the adoption and implementation of management decisions. Thus, the decision-making process implements the main function of the management apparatus. And managerial situations and the problems that need to be solved are, as already emphasized, complex in nature and therefore do not close within the regulated functions of one or another structural unit. However, a functionally differentiated management structure does not contribute to prompt and coordinated decision-making, since managers and specialists are reluctant to solve or do not solve tasks that are at the junction or go beyond the scope of a particular function. Thus, since in the conditions of modern management it is no longer possible to assume that the purpose, content and consequences of a management decision are determined only by the field of activity of a particular unit, the traditional functional structure organization often contradicts the complex nature of managerial problems.

From the point of view of a systematic approach and the concept of decision-making, organizational forms should be subordinated to the achievement of goals and the process of solving related problems, and the organizational management structure can be defined as a form of distribution of decisions and, at the same time, as a set of bodies that ensure their implementation.

To build a management apparatus as an organizational decision-making mechanism means the need, firstly, to determine the location and scope of responsibility of decision-making centers in it for the entire range of organizational problems and, secondly, to establish organizational interaction at all stages of the process of developing, making and implementing decisions. This approach makes it possible to take into account the unity of the formal and informal aspects of organizational structures (the formal structure of an organization cannot fully cover the decision-making process on all problems, therefore, in the course of its implementation, constant informal changes take place), as well as to reflect the dynamics of organizational structures. The main differences between the management apparatus, functioning as a decision-making mechanism, and the “classical” management structures are shown in Figure 2.

Comparable characteristic	Classic organization	Decision mechanism
primary element
The nature of the goals	Maintaining stability	Development, innovation
Interaction with the environment	Closed	open
Adaptability
Accounting for uncertainty in the management process	Making deterministic decisions	Risk analysis, uncertainty
Control and coordination	Vertical connections, hierarchy	Horizontal links

Fig. 2. Characteristics of the "classical" structure and apparatus of decision-oriented management

So, the formation of the management apparatus as a decision-making mechanism requires the implementation of the following main provisions:

In the management structure of the organization, decision-making centers are distinguished, and its decomposition into divisions and elements is based on a system of decisions, and not on a set of works;

The mechanism of organizational interaction, communication schemes, relations between members of the organization at various stages of the decision-making process are being formed;

Organizational forms and a mechanism for monitoring and coordinating the implementation of decisions are being established.

Selection in organizational structure decision-making centers is a very complex issue. The management structure reflects two factors at the same time: the differentiation of decisions that ensure the achievement of the system of goals of the organization and the distribution of decision-making powers. In other words, the organizational structure should reflect the structure of decisions made in it.

In fairly large-scale organizations, as is known, there is a need for delegation of authority, i.e. in the transfer of part of the decisions to the competence of middle or lower managers. If a significant part of the decisions made is transferred in this way, then we can talk about the decentralization of management. Centralization, just like decentralization, does not represent in itself, outside of specific conditions, a positive or negative characteristic control system, it always exists to a greater or lesser extent. However, the construction of rational organizational forms requires finding a certain ratio of centralization and decentralization.

Using a combination of quantitative and qualitative indicators, one can quite objectively assess the level of decentralization in the organizational structure of management.

Determining in the organization the most rational level of adoption of certain decisions, it is necessary to take into account the following considerations.

Information aspect. The factor of efficiency and quality of decisions requires granting authority to the level that has the maximum operational information on this problem. At the same time, it is necessary that the decision is not only made quickly, but also of high quality. And since the quality of a decision is largely determined by the quality of the information used to develop it, this also requires the empowerment of the level that has the most objective, reliable information that has not been distorted by numerous transmissions.

Economic aspect. This means that you need to take into account:

Availability of resources necessary for the implementation of the solution;

Material motivation of employees of the relevant departments in making and implementing the optimal (from the point of view of the interests of the organization as a whole) decision.

Social aspect. Modern organizational culture involves the participation of employees of the organization in decision-making and the formation of a democratic leadership style.

As you can see, information social aspects decision-making require the decentralization of decision-making processes, however, the economic factor - the resources that are usually at the disposal of top-level managers, may make this impossible. Therefore, when forming the management structure, it is necessary not only to clearly define the decision-making centers in it, but also to provide them with appropriate resources to ensure the implementation of the decisions made. In this case, the higher level of the hierarchy no longer manages all, but only certain reserve resources. In addition, it is necessary to use motivation methods that encourage employees at each level of management to strive for the most independent solution of problems that are within their competence and the most efficient use resources.

3.2 METHODS FOR MODELING AND OPTIMIZATION OF SOLUTIONS

managerial decision organizational leadership

In the process of solving complex problems in order to strengthen the ability of managers to make informed and objective decisions, various scientific methods for their development and optimization can be used, the arsenal of which is usually divided into two main classes:

Modeling methods;

Methods of expert assessments.

Modeling methods (also called operations research methods) are based on the use of mathematical models to solve the most common management problems.

The development and optimization of a solution to a specific problem by modeling methods is a rather complicated procedure, which can be represented by a sequence of main stages:

Formulation of the problem;

Determination of the efficiency criterion of the analyzed operation;

Quantitative measurement of factors influencing the operation under study;

Construction of a mathematical model of the studied object (operation);

Quantitative solution of the model and finding the optimal solution;

Checking the adequacy of the model and the solution found for the analyzed problem;

Correction and updating of the model. The number of possible concrete models is almost as great as the number of problems for which they are designed. Their detailed consideration is beyond the scope of this textbook and is the subject of a special academic discipline, therefore, we will name only the most common types of models.

Game theory models. Most business transactions can be considered as actions performed in the face of opposition. Countermeasures should include such factors as an accident, fire, theft, strike, violation of contractual obligations, etc. However, the most massive case of opposition is competition. Therefore, one of the most important conditions on which the success of an organization depends is competitiveness. Obviously, the ability to predict the actions of competitors is a significant advantage for any business. commercial organization. When making a decision, you should choose an alternative that allows you to reduce the degree of opposition, which in turn will reduce the degree of risk. Game theory provides the manager with such an opportunity. mathematical models which is encouraged to analyze possible alternatives to its actions, taking into account the possible response actions of competitors.

Queue theory models. Used to find the optimal number of service channels for a certain level of demand for them. Situations in which such models can be useful include, for example, determining the number of telephone lines needed to answer customer calls, trolleybuses on the route so that long queues do not accumulate at stops, or bank tellers so that customers do not have to wait , while they can be dealt with, etc. The problem here is that additional service channels (more telephone lines, trolleybuses or bank employees) require additional resources, and their loading is uneven (excessive throughput in some periods of time and the appearance of queues in others). Therefore, it is necessary to find a solution that balances the additional costs of expanding service channels and the losses from their lack. Models of queuing theory are precisely the tool for finding such an optimal solution.

Inventory management models. Any organization must maintain some level of inventory of its resources in order to avoid downtime or interruptions in technological processes and the sale of goods or services. For manufacturing company certain stocks of materials, components, finished products are needed, for a bank - cash, for a hospital - medicines, tools, etc. Maintaining a high level of inventory increases the reliability of the organization and eliminates the losses associated with their shortage. On the other hand, the creation of stocks requires additional costs for storage, warehousing, transportation, insurance, etc. In addition, excess inventories tie up working capital and prevent profitable investment of capital, for example, in securities or bank deposits.

Inventory management models allow you to find the optimal solution, i.e. such a level of stock that minimizes the cost of its creation and maintenance at a given level of continuity of production processes.

Linear programming models. These models are used to find the optimal solution in a situation of allocation of scarce resources in the presence of competing needs. For example, using a linear programming model, a production manager can determine the optimal production program, i.e. calculate how many products of each item should be produced to obtain the greatest profit with known volumes of materials and parts, the fund of equipment operation time and the profitability of each type of product.

It has a very serious applied value, which inevitably increases as the complexity of economic situations and management tasks that need to be addressed. This is also evidenced by the increasing scale of losses as a result of even small errors made in the decision.

Effective decision-making is necessary for the performance of managerial functions. Therefore, the decision-making process is the central point of management theory. Management science seeks to improve the performance of organizations by increasing management's ability to make informed, objective decisions in situations of extreme complexity through the use of models and quantitative methods.

The abstract discusses the features of modeling, the types of models used and some widely used decision-making methods, as well as forecasting methods used in management science.

Technology of the process of making and implementing managerial decisions.

LIST OF USED SOURCES

1. Azar V.A. Effective management decisions in the system of modern tourism management. - M.: Economics, 2004. - 270 p.

2. Amirkhanov M.M., Tatarinov A.A., Trusov A.D. Economic problems of management of recreational regions; 2007.- 141s.

3. Anikin I.B. New managerial thinking: essence and ways of formation. - M: Press service, 2007. - 420 p.

4. Berlin S.I. Economic Potential of Management Decisions: Socio-Economic State and Development Forecast; 2008. - 375 p.

5. Belonozhkin Yu.N., Vorobyov A.S. Management and technology for making effective decisions.

6. Bogdanov S.S., Petrov A.N., Sigov V.I. Strategy of socio-economic management of Russia. - M.: Press service, 2001.- 480 p.

7. Verpakhovsky B.E. Modern management: principles and rules. -Nizhny Novgorod: NKCP, 2002. - 270 p.

8. Vyrubov B.S. Marketing and management technologies in the management system of resort organizations.

9. Jackson Grayson, Carla O "Dell. Change management. - M .: MTsDO "LINK", 2008. - 600s.

10. M. I. Knysh, B. A. Perekatov, and Yu. Strategic planning investment activity. - St. Petersburg: Business Press Publishing House, 2003. - 234 p.

11. Krolivetsky E.N. Marketing and logistics in the system government controlled health resort sphere / Management. - 2008. - No. 9. - P. 57-61.

12. Krolivetsky E.N. Norms and standards in planning and economic regulation. - St. Petersburg: Publishing house of St. Petersburg University of Economics, 2002. - 50 p.

13. Lebedev V.A. New principle organization and functioning of institutions of the sanatorium profile of a single resort region / Issues of balneology and physiotherapy exercises. - 2008. - No. 5. - S. 41-42.

14. Livshits A.Ya., Novikov A.V., Smirnyagin L.V. Regional Management Strategy / Regions: Economics and Sociology. - 2007. - No. 3. - S. 27-56.

15. Mike Robson, Philip Ullah. Practical guide business process reengineering. - M.: Audit, UNITI, 2001. - 178 p.

Part 3 - St. Petersburg, 2000. S. 12-19.

16. Mikhailov V.V. Economic aspects state regulation in the field social services/ Management. - 2009. - No. 5. -S.21-24.

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