Freedom in decision-making inevitably gives rise to risks of possible losses. It can be argued that risks are the flip side of free enterprise. Since risks are associated with the uncertainty of the occurrence of events and can lead to fluctuations financial result, then to select alternatives for the development of events, the risk management of industrial enterprises needs methods for quantitative risk assessment, both in the form of the probabilities of the occurrence of events, and in the form of specific financial losses.

An essential factor in improving the scientific level of management is the use of mathematical methods and models in the preparation of solutions. However, a complete mathematical formalization of technical and economic problems is often not feasible due to their qualitative novelty and complexity. In this regard, expert methods are increasingly used, which are understood as a set of logical and mathematical-statistical methods and procedures aimed at obtaining from specialists the information necessary for the preparation and selection of rational decisions.

Expert methods are now used in situations where the choice, justification and evaluation of the consequences of decisions cannot be performed on the basis of accurate calculations. Such situations often arise during the development contemporary problems management of social production and, especially, in forecasting and long-term planning.

In the course of development social production not only the complexity of management increases, but also the requirements for the quality of decisions made. In order to increase the validity of decisions and take into account the numerous factors influencing their results, a comprehensive analysis is needed, based both on calculations and on reasoned judgments of managers and specialists familiar with the state of affairs and development prospects in various fields practical activities. The use of expert methods ensures the active and purposeful participation of specialists at all stages of decision-making, which can significantly improve their quality and efficiency.

The essence of the method of expert assessments is that experts conduct an intuitive-logical analysis of the problem with a quantitative assessment of judgments and formal processing of the results. The generalized opinion of experts obtained as a result of processing is accepted as a solution to the problem. The complex use of intuition (unconscious thinking), logical thinking and quantitative assessments with their formal processing makes it possible to obtain an effective solution to the problem.

When performing their role in the management process, experts perform two main functions: they form objects (alternative situations, goals, decisions, etc.) and measure their characteristics (probabilities of events occurring, goal significance coefficients, decision preferences, etc.) .

The formation of objects is carried out by experts on the basis of logical thinking and intuition. In this case, the knowledge and experience of the expert play an important role.

Measuring the characteristics of objects requires experts to know the theory of measurements.

The characteristic features of the method of expert assessments as a scientific tool for solving complex non-formalizable problems are, firstly, the scientifically based organization of all stages of the examination, ensuring the greatest efficiency of work at each stage, and, secondly, the use of quantitative methods both in organizing the examination and and in evaluating expert judgment and formal group processing of the results. These two features distinguish the method of expert assessments from the usual long-known expertise, widely used in various fields human activity.

All risks of the enterprise can be conditionally divided into two classes. The first class includes risks for which there is sufficient information potential to successfully manage them. The main difficulties in managing first-class risks in peer review are in realizing the existing information potential by selecting experts, building rational survey procedures and applying optimal methods for processing its results. At the same time, the methods of interrogation and processing are based on the use of the principle of a “good” meter. This principle means that the following hypotheses are fulfilled:

1) an expert is a repository of a large amount of rationally processed information, and therefore it can be considered as a qualitative source of information;

2) the group opinion of experts is close to the true solution of the problem.

If these hypotheses are correct, then the results of measurement theory and mathematical statistics can be used to construct polling procedures and processing algorithms.

The second class includes risks in respect of which the information potential of knowledge is insufficient to be sure of the validity of these hypotheses. When managing risks from this class of experts can no longer be regarded as "good measurers". Therefore, it is necessary to be very careful when processing the results of the examination. Applying averaging methods that are valid for "good meters"

in this case can lead to large errors. For example, the opinion of one expert, which is very different from the opinions of other experts, may turn out to be correct. In this regard, for the risks of the second class, qualitative treatment should be applied in general.

We list the typical tasks solved by the method of expert assessments in risk management:

1) compiling a list of possible risks in various areas for a certain period of time;

2) determination of the most probable time intervals for the completion of a set of events;

3) definition of goals and objectives of management with ordering them in order of importance;

4) identification of alternative (options for solving the problem with an assessment of their preferences);

5) alternative distribution of resources for solving problems with an assessment of their preference;

6) alternative decision-making options in a certain situation with an assessment of their preference.

The use of the method of expert assessments helps to formalize the procedures for collecting, summarizing and analyzing the opinions of specialists in order to transform them into the most convenient form for making an informed decision in the field of risk management.

But, it should be noted that the method of expert assessments cannot replace either administrative or planned decisions, it only allows you to replenish the information necessary for the preparation and adoption of such decisions.

Expert methods are continuously developed and improved. The main directions of this development are determined by a number of factors, among which one can point to the desire to expand the scope, increase the degree of use of mathematical methods and electronic computers, and also find ways to eliminate emerging shortcomings.

Despite the progress made in recent years in the development and practical use of the method of expert assessments, there are a number of problems and tasks that require further methodological research and practical verification. It is necessary to improve the expert selection system, increase the reliability of group opinion characteristics, develop methods for checking the validity of assessments, and study the hidden causes that reduce the reliability of expert assessments.

However, even today, expert assessments in combination with other mathematical and statistical methods are important tool improvement of management in the field of risk management.

Literature:

1. D.S. Shmerling, S.A. Dubrovsky, T.D. Arzhanova, A.A. Frenkel. Expert assessments. Methods and application (review) // Sat. "Statistical Methods for Analyzing Expert Evaluations". M., Nauka, 1977

2. Beshelev S.D., Gurvich F.G. Expert assessments. M.: Nauka, 1973. 246 p.

3. Beshelev S.D., Gurvich F.G. Expert assessments in making planned decisions. M.: Economics, 1976. 287 p.

4. Vladimirov V. A., Vorobyov Yu. L., Salov S. S. Risk management: Risk. Sustainable development. Synergetics. - M.: Nauka, 2000.

Risk is inherent in any field economic activity. The problem of risk is of particular importance in entrepreneurship, where intensive changes in the environment of a business entity necessitate a prompt and energetic response to the transformations that come in business. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the industry specifics that determine the risk factors, the degree of their manifestation and significance.
The lack of evidence-based approaches to the analysis and risk assessment of research and production enterprises leads to such undesirable consequences as loss of profits, unsold stocks of goods, reduced investment efficiency, the occurrence of losses in transactions, a reduction in the resource base, etc.
Despite a significant amount of research in the field of risk analysis and active search ways of an objective assessment of the magnitude of risk, many methodological and methodological issues of this important problem have not yet been resolved. So, in particular, so far there is no consensus on the nature and content of the economic risk of enterprises, criteria and indicators (general and private) for assessing economic risk have not been substantiated, there is no evidence-based classification of factors that determine economic risks, in particular external enterprise risks in market conditions functioning.
The need to improve the risk assessment of an enterprise and, in particular, a research and production enterprise in market conditions predetermined the relevance of the research topic.
The purpose of the abstract is to improve theoretical foundations and development of methodological provisions for the analysis of external risk and an expert method for assessing the risk of research and production enterprises in market conditions of functioning in order to increase the efficiency of their development.

1. Analysis and risk assessment

The problem of analysis, assessment and risk management in the implementation of enterprises production activities is one of the central problems in the Russian economy today. In a planned economy, when unprofitable enterprises received subsidies through the redistribution of funds from profitable enterprises, these problems were not so urgent. Currently, if the company does not make a profit, and even more so if there is no return on investment, then the company is on the verge of bankruptcy. Therefore, the rational use of funds and taking into account the risk factor is the most important moment in the activity of the enterprise.
In the conditions of formation market relations the role and importance of individual elements has changed radically management process consequently, the theoretical approaches to their analysis, evaluation and organization in the enterprise are also changing.
The number of unresolved problems in the field of managing economic and industrial risks in industrial enterprises increased markedly now with the advent of a competitive environment.
At the same time, it is important to take into account that any of the objects and subjects of production activity is exposed to the systemic impact of risks of various hierarchical levels: geopolitical, political, social, economic, financial, industrial, commercial, and man-made.
The risk can be reduced, first of all, by careful preliminary study, calculation of operations, choice of a rational, less dangerous course of action. Correct accounting of risk factors and rational risk management at the enterprise contributes to its successful market activity, while other enterprises whose management does not pay due attention to risks, in a similar market situation, inevitably turn out to be unprofitable. Therefore, the issues of theory and practice of risk assessment and management have acquired particular relevance at the present time.
The purpose of risk analysis is to provide potential partners with the necessary data to make decisions about the appropriateness of participating in the project and provide for measures to protect against possible financial losses. Risk analysis is performed in the sequence shown in fig. 1.

Figure 1. Sequence of risk analysis.

General principles of risk analysis. When talking about the need to take into account risk in project management, they usually mean its main participants: the customer, investor, performer (contractor) or seller, buyer, and also the insurance company. When analyzing the risk of any of the project participants, the following criteria are used, proposed by the famous American expert B. Berlimer:
risk losses are independent of each other;
loss in one direction from the “risk portfolio” does not necessarily increase the probability of loss in another (except for force majeure circumstances);
the maximum possible damage should not exceed the financial capabilities of the participant.
Risk analysis can be divided into two complementary types: qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative analysis can be relatively simple, its main task is to determine the risk factors, the stages of work during which the risk arises, i.e., to establish potential areas of risk, and then identify all possible risks. Quantitative risk analysis, i.e., the numerical determination of the size of individual risks and the risk of the project as a whole, is a more complex problem. All factors, one way or another affecting the growth of the degree of risk in the project, can be conditionally divided into objective and subjective.

1.1. Risk zones and risk curve

An entrepreneur should always strive to take into account the possible risk and provide for measures to reduce its level and compensate for probable losses. This is the essence of risk management (risk management). the main objective risk management (especially for conditions modern Russia) - to ensure that in the worst case we can talk about the lack of profit, but not about the bankruptcy of the organization. To assess the degree of acceptability commercial risk it is necessary to allocate risk zones depending on the expected value of losses. The general scheme of risk zones is shown in fig. 2.

Figure 2. Risk zones.

The area in which losses are not expected, i.e. where economic result economic activity positive is called the risk-free zone. Zone acceptable risk- the area within which the amount of probable losses does not exceed the expected profit and, therefore, commercial activity has economic viability. The boundary of the acceptable risk zone corresponds to the level of losses equal to the calculated profit. Critical risk zone - the area of ​​possible losses exceeding the amount of expected profit up to the value of the total estimated revenue (the sum of costs and profit). Here, the entrepreneur runs the risk of not only not receiving any income, but also incurring direct losses in the amount of all costs incurred.
The zone of catastrophic risk is the area of ​​probable losses that exceed critical level and can reach a value equal to the equity capital of the organization. A catastrophic risk can lead an organization or entrepreneur to collapse and bankruptcy. In addition, the category of catastrophic risk (regardless of the amount of property damage) should include the risk associated with a threat to life or health of people and the occurrence of economic disasters. A visual representation of the level of commercial risk is given by a graphical representation of the dependence of the probability of losses on their magnitude - the risk curve (Fig. 3).

Figure 3. Risk curve.

The construction of such a curve is based on the hypothesis that profit as a random variable is subject to the normal distribution law and involves the following assumptions.
1. Most likely to receive a profit equal to the calculated value - Pr. The probability (Вр) of obtaining such a profit is maximum and the value of P can be considered the mathematical expectation of profit. The probability of making a profit, greater or less than the calculated one, decreases monotonically as deviations increase.
2. Losses are considered to be a decrease in profit (?P) in comparison with the calculated value. If real profit is equal to P, then? P \u003d Pr - P.
The assumptions made are controversial to a certain extent and not always valid for all types of risks, but on the whole quite correctly reflect the most general patterns of changes in commercial risk and make it possible to construct a profit loss probability distribution curve, which is called the risk curve (Fig. 4).

Figure 4. Profit loss probability distribution curve.

The main thing in assessing commercial risk is the ability to build a risk curve and determine zones and indicators of acceptable, critical and catastrophic risks. Thus, the risk analysis process includes the following stages:
creation of a predictive model;
definition of risk variables;
determining the probability distribution of the selected variables and determining the range of possible values ​​for each of them;
establishing the presence or absence of correlations among risk variables;
model runs;
analysis of results.
risk variables. These are variables that are critical to the viability of the project, i.e. even small deviations from its expected value negatively affect the project. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is used to select variables. Sensitivity analysis measures the response of project results to changes in a particular project variable.
Uncertainty analysis helps to highlight high-risk variables. The set of expected values ​​of the variable should be wide enough, but with boundaries: minimum and maximum values. Thus, a range of possible values ​​is set for each risk variable. Two main categories of probability distribution can be distinguished: 1) normal, uniform and triangular distributions (they spread the probability within the same range, but with different degrees of concentration relative to the average values). These types of distribution are called symmetric; 2) stepwise and discrete distributions. With a discrete distribution, range intervals are allocated, each of which is assigned a certain probability weight in a stepwise manner (Fig. 5).

Figure 5. Probability distribution.

correlated variables. Determination of risk variables and giving them an appropriate probability distribution is a necessary condition for risk analysis. With the successful completion of these two stages of analysis, with a reliable computer program, you can proceed to the modeling stage. At this stage, the computer generates a series of scenarios based on random numbers generated using specified probability distributions.
To analyze the available data, regression and correlation are usually used to make it easier to predict the dependent variable from the actual or hypothetical values ​​of the independent variable. As a result of such analyzes, a regression equation and a correlation coefficient are derived. For risk analysis, this is just the initial data, and the result is the information generated during the simulation. The task of correlation analysis in relation to risk analysis is to control the values ​​of the dependent variable, allowing you to keep the correspondence with the opposite values ​​of the independent variable.
Currently, the following methods of risk analysis are the most common:
statistical;
expert assessments;
analytical;
estimates financial stability and solvency;
cost feasibility assessments;
analysis of the consequences of risk accumulation;
method of using analogues;
combined method.

1.2. Methods of expert assessments

In an unstable environment, when the repetition of the economic situation for an entrepreneur in the same conditions is practically impossible and there is no information about the possibility of risk events, it is possible to use subjective methods of expert assessments, judgments and personal experience an expert, the opinion of a financial manager, etc.
Expert assessment methods allow you to determine the levels of financial risks in the event that the enterprise does not have the necessary information for making calculations or comparisons. These methods are based on a survey of experts (qualified specialists from insurance, tax, financial authorities, investment managers, employees of relevant specialized firms) with subsequent statistical processing of the survey results. The survey should focus on specific types of risks identified in this transaction.
Expert risk assessment is not a solution, but only helpful information to help you make an informed decision. Only the risk manager can decide on the level of risk based on his preferences, and he is responsible for them.
Expert assessment methods are widely used in determining the levels of inflationary, interest rate, emission, currency, investment and some other types of financial risks.
This method involves the collection and study of assessments made by various specialists (of a given enterprise or external experts) concerning the probability of occurrence of different levels of losses. Estimates are based on taking into account all financial risk factors, as well as on statistical data. The implementation of the method of expert assessments is much more complicated if the number of assessment indicators is small.
The variant and probable nature of many project processes enhances the role of expert judgment in determining economic and financial performance. Such estimates are used quite regularly both in domestic and foreign practice. During the transition period, the role of expert opinions in determining the relevant indicators increases significantly, since the indicators used for calculation are not directive. Appropriate expert assessment can be obtained both after conducting special studies and using the accumulated experience of leading experts. The increase in risk in the implementation of the project requires a more thorough assessment of the critical moments of its implementation. Many initial indicators, often competing with each other, involve the use of expert assessments to construct a project quality criterion. Therefore, the investment assessment system in modern conditions, by necessity, becomes “human-algorithmic”, and the role of a human expert is decisive.
Expert assessment is the opinion of experts on a specific issue identified by a special methodology. An expert assessment is necessary for making a decision at the stage of preparation of the PTES. But already in the feasibility study, the number of expert assessments should be minimal. Staged risk assessment is based on the fact that the risks are determined for each stage of the project separately, and then the total result for the entire project is found. Usually, in each project, the following stages are distinguished: preparatory (fulfillment of the entire range of works necessary to start the project); construction (construction of necessary buildings and structures, purchase and installation of equipment); functioning (bringing the project to full capacity and making a profit). Character investment project as something done on an individual basis, essentially leaves the only possibility for assessing the values ​​of risks - the use of expert opinion. Each expert, working separately, is presented with a list of primary risks for all stages of the project and is invited to assess the likelihood of risks occurring in accordance with the following rating system:
0 - the risk is considered insignificant;
25 - the risk is most likely not realized;
50 - nothing definite about the occurrence of the event
cannot be said;
75 - the risk is most likely to manifest itself;
100 - the risk is realized.
Expert evaluations are subjected to consistency analysis, which is performed according to certain rules. First, the maximum allowable difference between the estimates of two experts for any factor should not exceed 50. Comparisons are made modulo (plus or minus sign is not taken into account), which allows eliminating unacceptable differences in experts' estimates of the likelihood of a particular risk. If the number of experts is more than three, then pairwise comparable opinions are evaluated. Secondly, to assess the consistency of expert opinions on the entire set of risks, a pair of experts is identified whose opinions differ most. For calculations, the assessment discrepancies are summed modulo and the result is divided by the number of simple risks. The quotient of division should not exceed 25. If contradictions are found between the opinions of experts (at least one of the above rules is not followed), they are discussed at meetings with experts. In the absence of contradictions, all expert estimates are reduced to the average (arithmetic mean), which is used in further calculations.
A separate problem is the justification and evaluation of priorities. Its essence lies in the need to free experts who assess the probability of risk from assessing the importance of each individual event for the entire project. This work should be carried out by the project developers, namely the team that prepares the list of risks to be assessed. The task of the experts is to give an assessment of the risks. After determining the probabilities for simple risks (obtaining an average expert assessment), it is necessary to obtain an integral risk assessment of the entire project. To do this, the risks of each sub-stage or composition of the stages are first calculated: functioning, financial and economic, technological, social and environmental. Then the risks of each stage are calculated - preparatory, construction, functioning.
Another important method risk research - modeling the selection problem using a "decision tree". This method involves a graphical construction of options for decisions that can be made. The branches of the "tree" correlate subjective and objective assessments of possible events. Following along the constructed branches and using special methods for calculating probabilities, each path is evaluated and then the less risky one is chosen.
There are no ready-made recipes in risk management and there cannot be. But knowing his methods, techniques, ways of solving certain economic tasks, you can achieve tangible success in a particular situation.
A manager's intuition and insight play a special role in solving risky tasks. Intuition is the ability to directly, as if suddenly, without logical thinking, find the right solution to a problem. Intuition is an indispensable component of the creative process. Insight is the consciousness of solving a specific problem. At the moment of insight, the decision is clearly perceived, but this clarity is often of a short duration. Therefore, a conscious fixation of the decision is necessary.
In cases where the risk cannot be calculated, risky decisions are made using heuristics, which is a set of logical techniques and methodological rules for theoretical research and finding the truth. In other words, these are ways of solving particularly complex problems. Risk management has its own system of heuristic rules and techniques for making decisions under risk (Fig. 6).

Figure 6. Heuristic rules for making a risky decision.

2. Risk management
In a market economy, producers, sellers, buyers act independently in a competitive environment, that is, at their own peril and risk. Their financial future is therefore unpredictable and little predictable. Risk management is a system for assessing risk, managing risk and financial relationships that arise in the course of a business. Risk can be managed using a variety of measures that make it possible to predict the occurrence of a risk event to a certain extent and take timely measures to reduce the degree of risk.
The degree and magnitude of risk can really be influenced through the financial mechanism, which is carried out using the methods of strategy and financial management. This kind of risk management mechanism is risk management. Risk management is based on the organization of work to determine and reduce the degree of risk.
Risk management is a system for managing risk and economic (more precisely, financial) relations that arise in the process of this management, and includes the strategy and tactics of management actions.
Management strategy refers to the directions and methods of using funds to achieve the goal. Each method corresponds to a certain set of rules and restrictions for adoption. best solution. The strategy helps to concentrate efforts on various solutions that do not contradict the general line of the strategy and discard all other options. After reaching the set goal, this strategy ceases to exist, since new goals put forward the task of developing a new strategy.
Tactics - practical methods and techniques of management to achieve a set goal in specific conditions. The task of management tactics is to choose the most optimal solution and the most constructive management methods and techniques in a given economic situation.
Risk management as a management system consists of two subsystems: the managed subsystem - the object of management and the management subsystem - the subject of management. The object of management in risk management is risky investments of capital and economic relations between business entities in the process of risk realization. Such economic relations include relations between the insured and the insurer, the borrower and the lender, between entrepreneurs, competitors, etc.
The subject of management in risk management is a group of managers (financial manager, insurance specialist, etc.), which, through various options for its impact, carries out the purposeful functioning of the management object. This process can be carried out only if the necessary information is circulated between the subject and the object of management. The management process always involves the receipt, transfer, processing and practical use of information. The acquisition of information that is reliable and sufficient under specific conditions plays a major role, as it helps to make the right decision on actions in a risk environment. Information support consists of various kinds of information: statistical, economic, commercial, financial, etc.
This information includes information about the probability of a particular insured event, event, the presence and magnitude of demand for goods, capital, financial stability and solvency of its customers, partners, competitors, etc.
An economic entity must be able not only to collect information, but to store and retrieve it if necessary. The best card file for collecting information is a computer that has both a good memory and the ability to quickly find the information you need.
There are the following functions of risk management:
- the management object, which includes the risk resolution organization; risk capital investments; work to reduce the magnitude of the risk; risk insurance process; economic relations and links between the subjects of the economic process.
- the subject of management, within which forecasting, organization, coordination, regulation, stimulation, control.
Before deciding on a risky capital investment, the financial manager must determine the maximum amount of loss for this risk; compare it with the amount of invested capital; compare it with all your own financial resources and determine whether the loss of this capital will lead to the bankruptcy of the investor. The amount of loss from capital investment can be equal to the amount of this capital, be less than it or more.
The organization of risk management involves the definition of a risk management body, which can be a financial manager, a risk manager or an appropriate management apparatus, say, a risk capital investment department, which should perform the following functions:
- carry out venture and portfolio investments, that is, risky investments in accordance with the current legislation and the charter of an economic entity;
- develop a program of risky investment activities;
- collect, analyze, process and store information about the environment;
- determine the degree and cost of risks, strategy and management techniques;
- develop a program of risky decisions and organize its implementation, including monitoring and analysis of results;
- carry out insurance activities, conclude insurance and reinsurance contracts, conduct insurance and reinsurance operations;
- develop conditions for insurance and reinsurance, set tariff rates for insurance operations;
- issue a guarantee on the guarantee of domestic and foreign companies, make compensation for losses at their expense, entrust other persons with the performance of similar functions abroad;
- maintain appropriate accounting, statistical and operational reporting on risky capital investments.
Risk management strategy is the art of risk management in an uncertain economic situation, based on risk prediction and risk reduction techniques. This strategy includes the rules on the basis of which risky decisions are made and ways to choose their option.
The following rules apply in the risk management strategy:
- maximum win
- the optimal probability of the result,
- optimal variability of the result,
- the optimal combination of gain and risk.
The essence of the maximum payoff rule is that from options risky investments of capital, the option is chosen that gives the greatest efficiency of the result at a minimum or acceptable risk for the investor.
The desire for the optimal combination of the size of the gain and the amount of risk lies in the fact that the manager evaluates the expected values ​​of the gain and risk and decides to invest in the event that allows you to get the expected gain and at the same time avoid high risk. The decision-making rules for risky investment of capital are supplemented by various ways of choosing a solution option. Among the latest choices:
- a solution, provided that the probabilities of possible economic situations are known;
- a solution option, provided that the probabilities of possible economic situations are unknown, but there are estimates of their relative values,
- a solution option, provided that the probabilities of possible economic situations are unknown, but the main directions for evaluating the results of capital investment are known.
In the first case, the average expected value of the rate of return on invested capital for each option is determined and the option with the highest rate of return is selected. In the second, by means of an expert assessment, the value of the probability of the conditions of economic situations is established and the average expected value of the rate of return on invested capital is calculated. In the third case, there are three directions for evaluating the results of capital investment: choosing the maximum result from the minimum value; selection of the minimum risk value from the maximum risks; the choice of the average value of the result. The calculation of risk assessment and the choice of the optimal option for investing capital is carried out using mathematical methods that are studied by such disciplines as econometrics, financial management, and economic analysis.
The central place in the assessment of entrepreneurial risk is occupied by the analysis and forecasting of possible losses of resources in the course of entrepreneurial activity. This does not mean the expenditure of resources, objectively determined by the nature and scale of entrepreneurial actions, but random, unforeseen, but potentially possible losses arising from the deviation of the real course of entrepreneurship from the planned scenario.
If a random event has a double effect on the final results of entrepreneurship, has adverse and favorable consequences, then both should be equally taken into account when assessing risk. In other words, when determining the total possible losses, the gain that accompanies them should be subtracted from the calculated losses.
It is advisable to divide the losses that may be in entrepreneurial activity into material, labor, financial, time losses, and special types of losses. Material types of losses are manifested in additional costs unforeseen by the entrepreneurial project or direct losses of equipment, property, products, raw materials, energy, etc. In relation to each individual of the listed types of losses, their own units of measurement are used. It is most natural to measure material losses in the same units in which the amount of a given type of material resources is measured, i.e. in physical units of weight, volume, area, etc.
However, it is not possible to bring together the losses measured in different units and express them in one value. You can not add kilograms and meters. Therefore, the calculation of losses in value terms, in monetary units, is inevitable. To do this, losses in the physical dimension are converted into a cost dimension by multiplying by the unit price of the corresponding material resource. For material resources, the cost of which is known, losses can be immediately estimated in terms of monetary terms. Having an estimate of the probable losses for each of the individual types of material resources in terms of value, it is realistic to bring them together, while observing the rules for dealing with random variables and their probabilities.
Labor losses represent the loss of working time caused by random, unforeseen circumstances. In direct measurement, labor losses are expressed in man-hours, man-days, or simply hours of working time. The translation of labor losses into value, monetary terms is carried out by multiplying labor hours by the cost (price) of one hour.
Financial losses are direct monetary losses associated with unforeseen payments, payment of fines, payment of additional taxes, loss of funds and securities. In addition, financial losses may occur in the event of a shortfall or non-receipt of money from the provided sources, in case of non-repayment of debts, non-payment by the buyer of the products supplied to him, a decrease in revenue due to a decrease in prices for products and services sold. Special types of monetary damage are associated with inflation, changes in the ruble exchange rate, additional
etc.................

The concept of risk

Definition 1

Risk is a cost expression of a probabilistic event that can lead to losses.

The greater the chance of making high profits, the higher the risk levels. Risks are formed when the actual and estimated data do not coincide with each other and can be both positive and negative. Making a profit is possible only if possible losses are foreseen and insured.

Risk functions

There are several risk functions. These include:

• Innovative, stimulating the search for non-traditional solutions to problems. Innovation leads the enterprise to competitiveness and rapid growth;
• Regulatory function, acting as a constructive or destructive, and aimed at obtaining results;
• Protective, expressed through a tolerant attitude towards failures, while realizing that risk is an integral part of any production;
• Analytical - a function that assumes the choice of one single correct solution from a set.

Remark 1

It should be noted that, despite the threats that risk carries, it is an integral integral part making a profit. In this regard, the main task of the manager is not a complete rejection of risks, but the choice of a solution related to the definition possible development risky situations.

Risk assessment

A set of analytical enterprises that make it possible to forecast the possibility of obtaining additional income, or determine the amount of damage from the situation that has arisen, is a risk assessment. Risk assessment is carried out on the basis of qualitative quantitative analyses. They are carried out on the basis of an assessment of the influence of external and internal factors. Such an analysis is a rather time-consuming procedure, but it always bears fruit if it is carried out qualitatively.

If possible losses can be estimated and predicted in one way or another, then quantification. Speaking about the fact that the risk is measured by the value of losses, their random nature should be taken into account. To obtain data on the likelihood of a risky situation, an objective analysis is used.

Any type of risk has a mathematically expressed probability of the situation occurring. It is based on statistical data and can be calculated to a reasonable degree of accuracy. All possible consequences of any single risk must be known in order to calculate the quantitative consequences.

Expert risk assessment

Definition 2

An expert assessment is an opinion of experts on a given issue, performed according to a specially developed methodology.

Expert risk assessment involves the collection and study of various assessments made by the company's specialists or external experts, and regarding the likelihood of certain losses. Such estimates should be based on taking into account all economic criteria and on statistical data. With a small number of indicators, the implementation of the method of expert assessments looks difficult.

The role of the method of expert assessments is increasing due to the variability of the influence of many economic processes. At certain stages, the role of such a method increases, at others it decreases many times over. An expert assessment can be obtained only in the case of a special study, as well as using the experience of other specialists in the field. In view of the many indicators that are often mutually exclusive, the method of expert assessments is used to construct quality criteria. The role of the human expert in this method is decisive.

A. Point assessment of risk indicators. In order to use an indicator of this type, it is necessary to know both the type and the parameters of the law of distribution of values ​​that reflect the results of activities. Assuming that a sufficiently large number of not only internal, but also external risk factors affect the results of entrepreneurship, we put forward the hypothesis that these results obey the normal distribution law.

On fig. 2.3 shows the curve density functions of the normal distribution. This is a graphical reflection of the dependence of the probability distribution density of the expected values ​​of the result. After analyzing this curve, you can see that all the values ​​of the result are more densely grouped around the value X(the density curve at this point has max), however, as the results are distributed both to the left and to the right of the value X a decrease in density is observed.

Rice. 2.3.

For example, the risk score R(probability of getting a result at the required level) is defined as the area under the curve, which can be calculated using the following formula:

where are the numerical characteristics of the distribution: mathematical expectation and dispersion; Dtp is the required result value.

To build probability density curves for possible entrepreneurial outcomes a large array of statistical information is required to test the statistical hypothesis about the parameters and the form of the distribution law. Basically, it is difficult to obtain such initial data in advance, therefore, in this form, probabilistic indicators are rarely used.

B. Interval assessment of risk indicators. Point risk assessment does not provide information about the accuracy of the assessment procedure. In this regard, an entrepreneur who assesses the risk of his own activities should also use interval approach, which is a determination of the probability of obtaining a certain result within given and necessary limits.

For example, the probability that the result will be equal to the value belonging to the interval [ X 1, X 2] is equal to

or

Let's represent this interpretation graphically (Fig. 2.4).

Rice. 2.4.

Such interval estimation of the risk level serves as the basis for risk value conceptsVaR (VaR – value al risk ), which was developed in the late 1980s. last century. A certain amount of risk value as a generalized assessment of market risk is primarily necessary to coordinate operational decisions at the level of the company's top management.

VaR is recognized as the most universal method used to calculate the following types of risk:

• price risk - changes in the market value of the price of a financial asset;
• currency risk- associated with a change in the exchange rate of the national currency against foreign currency in the market;
• credit risk - arising from the complete or partial insolvency of the borrower on the received loan;
• liquidity risk - associated with the inability to sell a financial asset or the ability to sell only with large losses that arise when selling an asset due to a significant difference in the amount of purchase to sale that exists in the market.

risk costVaR reflects the maximum possible loss from a change in value financial instruments, portfolio of assets, etc., which will occur over a given period of time with a predetermined probability of its occurrence.

From this we can conclude that the main indicators in determining the risk value can be considered the level of the confidence interval (confidence probability) and the time horizon.

Confidence interval level is the boundary that (based on the opinion of the risk manager) separates "normal" market fluctuations from unforeseen, extreme bursts of price in terms of their frequency. As a rule, the probability of losses is within 1 - γ = (1.0; 2.5 or 5% ) (the corresponding level of the confidence interval is equal to g=(99; 97.5 or 95%)). In this case, it should be taken into account that with an increase in the level of the confidence interval, the risk value indicator will also increase: it is obvious that losses that occur with a probability of no more than 1% will be higher than losses that occur with a probability of 5%.

When choosing time horizon it is worth considering, firstly, how often transactions with these assets are carried out; secondly, their liquidity. For those financial institutions that are active in the capital markets, the traditional settlement period is one day, while for strategic investors it may be acceptable to use longer time periods. In addition to the lengthening of the time horizon, the risk value also increases. It is obvious that the possible profits and losses, for example in five days, can have large scale than in one day. In practice, it is usually assumed that during the period P days, the value of the risk value will approximately equal the value of times more than in one day.

Expert risk assessment methods

In today's unstable environment, when the repetition of any economic situation for an entrepreneur under the same conditions is almost impossible and there is no up-to-date information about the likelihood of risk events, it is worth turning to subjective methods expert assessments, judgments and personal experience of an expert, opinions of a financial manager, etc. Expert assessment methods make it possible to determine levels of financial risks, if there is no company necessary information for making calculations or comparisons. These methods consist in a survey of experts (qualified specialists from insurance, tax, financial authorities, investment managers, employees of relevant specialized firms) and further statistical processing of the survey results. The survey should focus on specific types of risks identified in this transaction.

An expert assessment of the level of risk is not a decision in itself, but only necessary and useful information that helps to make an informed decision. Only the risk manager can decide on the level of risk, and the responsibility lies with him.

Most often, expert evaluation methods are used in determining the levels of inflationary, interest rate, emission, currency, investment and some other types of financial risks.

It is possible to attract heuristic rules, representing a set of logical methods for finding truth (Fig. 2.5).

Rice. 2.5.

So, we have considered many methods of risk assessment (calculation and analytical, probabilistic, statistical and expert). These methods are often used in combination with each other, for example, computational and analytical methods with statistical (correlation-regression) methods. Combined methods include methods for predicting bankruptcy, estimating financial condition enterprises, assessment of financial and other risks based on financial and operational leverage, etc. On the basis of such a combination of methods, methods of financial rating analysis, etc. have been developed. Other, more specialized risk assessment methods are also possible.

Now let's look at some of the approaches in more detail.

• Tokarenko G.S. Financial risk management technology // Financial management. 2006. № 5.
• Cm.: Tokarenko G.S. Financial risk management technology.

Introduction

Risk is inherent in any area of ​​economic activity. The problem of risk is of particular importance in entrepreneurship, where intensive changes in the environment of a business entity necessitate a prompt and energetic response to the transformations that come in business. At the same time, it is necessary to take into account the industry specifics that determine the risk factors, the degree of their manifestation and significance.

The lack of evidence-based approaches to the analysis and risk assessment of research and production enterprises leads to such undesirable consequences as loss of profits, unsold stocks of goods, reduced investment efficiency, the occurrence of losses in transactions, a reduction in the resource base, etc.

The works of domestic and foreign scientists are devoted to the issues of analysis and assessment of risks in the activities of enterprises. A significant contribution to the development of these issues was made by economists: V. A. Abchuk, A. P. Algin, K. M. Arginbaev, M. I. Bakanov, I. T. Balabanov, V. V. Bokov, V. A. Borovkova, E.S. Vasilchuk, V.V. Glushchenko, P.G. Grabovyi, V.M. Granaturov, A.M. Dubrov, B.A. Lagosha, A.A. Pervozvansky, B.A. Raizberg, V.T. Sevruk, A.A. Spivak, V.A. Chernov, A.S. Shapkin, A.D. Sheremet and others. Among foreign scientists, the following works can be noted: W. Barton, T. Bachkai, E. Vogkhan, M. Green, S. Williams, K. Redhead and others. V. A. Borovkova, A. M. Omarova, V. M. Granaturova, E.V. Seregina, G.A. Taktarova, G.V. Chernov and others.

However, despite a significant amount of research in the field of risk analysis and an active search for ways to objectively assess the magnitude of risk, many methodological and methodological issues of this important problem have not yet been resolved. So, in particular, so far there is no consensus on the nature and content of the economic risk of enterprises, criteria and indicators (general and private) for assessing economic risk have not been substantiated, there is no evidence-based classification of factors that determine economic risks, in particular external risks of the enterprise in market conditions of functioning.

The need to improve the risk assessment of an enterprise and, in particular, a research and production enterprise in market conditions predetermined the relevance of the research topic.

Purpose and objectives of the study. Target term paper consists in improving the theoretical foundations and developing methodological provisions for the analysis of external risk and an expert method for assessing the risk of research and production enterprises in market conditions of functioning in order to increase the efficiency of their development.

To achieve this goal, the following tasks were set and solved in the course work:

Analysis of risk sources of research and production enterprises and their classification;

Identification of risk features at research and production enterprises and their assessment in modern conditions;

Development of a methodological approach to risk assessment at research and production enterprises using the expert method.

Subject of study is an external risk analysis. The analysis of external risk is understood as an assessment of the degree of influence of the external environment on the activities of a research and production enterprise.

The closed research and production enterprise was chosen as the object of the study. Joint-Stock Company"Samara Horizons".

The theoretical and methodological basis of the course work was the work of domestic and foreign researchers.

Information base of the study. The data of CJSC NPP "Samara Horizons" were used as initial information in the research.

1. Analysis and risk assessment

The problem of analysis, assessment and risk management in the implementation of production activities by enterprises is today one of the central problems in the Russian economy. In a planned economy, when unprofitable enterprises received subsidies through the redistribution of funds from profitable enterprises, these problems were not so urgent. Currently, if the company does not make a profit, and even more so if there is no return on investment, then the company is on the verge of bankruptcy. Therefore, the rational use of funds and taking into account the risk factor is the most important moment in the activities of the enterprise.

In the conditions of the formation of market relations, the role and importance of individual elements of the management process has changed radically, therefore, the theoretical approaches to their analysis, evaluation and organization at the enterprise are also changing.

The number of unresolved problems in the field of managing economic and industrial risks at industrial enterprises has increased markedly at the present time with the advent of a competitive environment.

At the same time, it is important to take into account that any of the objects and subjects of production activity is exposed to the systemic impact of risks of various hierarchical levels: geopolitical, political, social, economic, financial, industrial, commercial, and man-made.

The risk can be reduced, first of all, by careful preliminary study, calculation of operations, choice of a rational, less dangerous course of action. Correct accounting of risk factors and rational risk management at the enterprise contributes to its successful market activity, while other enterprises whose management does not pay due attention to risks, in a similar market situation, inevitably turn out to be unprofitable. Therefore, the issues of theory and practice of risk assessment and management have acquired particular relevance at the present time.

The purpose of risk analysis is to provide potential partners with the necessary data to make decisions about the appropriateness of participating in the project and provide for measures to protect against possible financial losses. Risk analysis is performed in the sequence shown in fig. 1.

Figure 1. Sequence of risk analysis.

General principles of risk analysis. When talking about the need to take into account risk in project management, they usually mean its main participants: the customer, investor, performer (contractor) or seller, buyer, as well as insurance company. When analyzing the risk of any of the project participants, the following criteria are used, proposed by the famous American expert B. Berlimer:

Risk losses are independent of each other;

A loss in one direction from the “risk portfolio” does not necessarily increase the probability of a loss in another (except in force majeure circumstances);

The maximum possible damage should not exceed the financial capabilities of the participant.

Risk analysis can be divided into two complementary types: qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative analysis can be relatively simple, its main task is to determine the risk factors, the stages of work during which the risk arises, i.e., to establish potential risk areas, and then identify all possible risks. Quantitative risk analysis, i.e., the numerical determination of the size of individual risks and the risk of the project as a whole, is a more complex problem. All factors, one way or another affecting the growth of the degree of risk in the project, can be conditionally divided into objective and subjective.

1.1. Risk zones and risk curve

An entrepreneur should always strive to take into account the possible risk and provide for measures to reduce its level and compensate for probable losses. This is the essence of risk management (risk management). The main goal of risk management (especially for the conditions of modern Russia) is to ensure that in the worst case we can talk about the lack of profit, but not about the bankruptcy of the organization. To assess the degree of acceptability of commercial risk, it is necessary to allocate risk zones depending on the expected amount of losses. The general scheme of risk zones is shown in fig. 2.

Figure 2. Risk zones.

The area in which losses are not expected, i.e., where the economic result of economic activity is positive, is called the risk-free zone. The zone of acceptable risk is the area within which the amount of probable losses does not exceed the expected profit and, therefore, commercial activity has economic feasibility. The boundary of the acceptable risk zone corresponds to the level of losses equal to the calculated profit. Critical risk zone - the area of ​​possible losses exceeding the amount of expected profit up to the value of the total estimated revenue (the sum of costs and profit). Here, the entrepreneur runs the risk of not only not receiving any income, but also incurring direct losses in the amount of all costs incurred.

Catastrophic risk zone - the area of ​​probable losses that exceed the critical level and can reach a value equal to equity organizations. A catastrophic risk can lead an organization or entrepreneur to collapse and bankruptcy. In addition, the category of catastrophic risk (regardless of the amount of property damage) should include the risk associated with a threat to life or health of people and the occurrence of economic disasters. A visual representation of the level of commercial risk is given by a graphical representation of the dependence of the probability of losses on their magnitude - the risk curve (Fig. 3).

Figure 3. Risk curve.

The construction of such a curve is based on the hypothesis that profit as a random variable is subject to the normal distribution law and involves the following assumptions.

1. Most likely to receive a profit equal to the calculated value - Pr. The probability (Вр) of obtaining such a profit is maximum and the value of P can be considered the mathematical expectation of profit. The probability of making a profit, greater or less than the calculated one, decreases monotonically as deviations increase.

2. Losses are considered to be a decrease in profit (ΔP) in comparison with the calculated value. If real profit is P, then ΔP = Pr - P.

The assumptions made are controversial to a certain extent and not always valid for all types of risks, but on the whole quite correctly reflect the most general patterns of changes in commercial risk and make it possible to construct a profit loss probability distribution curve, which is called the risk curve (Fig. 4).

Figure 4. Profit loss probability distribution curve.

The main thing in assessing commercial risk is the ability to build a risk curve and determine zones and indicators of acceptable, critical and catastrophic risks. Thus, the risk analysis process includes the following stages:

Creation of a predictive model;

Definition of risk variables;

Determining the probability distribution of the selected variables and determining the range of possible values ​​for each of them;

Establishing the presence or absence of correlations among risk variables;

Model runs;

Analysis of results.

risk variables. These are variables that are critical to the viability of the project, i.e. even small deviations from its expected value negatively affect the project. Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is used to select variables. Sensitivity analysis measures the response of project results to changes in a particular project variable.

Uncertainty analysis helps to highlight high-risk variables. The set of expected values ​​of the variable should be wide enough, but with boundaries: minimum and maximum values. Thus, a range of possible values ​​is set for each risk variable. Two main categories of probability distribution can be distinguished: 1) normal, uniform and triangular distributions (they spread the probability within the same range, but with different degrees of concentration relative to the average values). These types of distribution are called symmetric; 2) stepwise and discrete distributions. With a discrete distribution, range intervals are allocated, each of which is assigned a certain probability weight in a stepwise manner (Fig. 5).

Figure 5. Probability distribution.

correlated variables. Determination of risk variables and giving them an appropriate probability distribution - necessary condition conducting a risk analysis. Upon successful completion of these two stages of analysis, with a reliable computer program you can go to the modeling stage. At this stage, the computer generates a series of scenarios based on random numbers generated using specified probability distributions.

To analyze the available data, regression and correlation are usually used to make it easier to predict the dependent variable from the actual or hypothetical values ​​of the independent variable. As a result of such analyzes, a regression equation and a correlation coefficient are derived. For risk analysis, this is just the initial data, and the result is the information generated during the simulation. The task of correlation analysis in relation to risk analysis is to control the values ​​of the dependent variable, allowing you to keep the correspondence with the opposite values ​​of the independent variable.

Statistical;

Expert assessments;

Analytical;

Combined method.

1.2. Method of expert assessments

This method involves the collection and study of estimates made by various specialists (in-house or external experts) regarding the probability of occurrence of various levels of losses. Estimates are based on taking into account all financial risk factors, as well as on statistical data. The implementation of the method of expert assessments is much more complicated if the number of assessment indicators is small.

The variant and probable nature of many project processes enhances the role of expert judgment in determining the economic and financial indicators. Such estimates are used quite regularly both in domestic and foreign practice. During the transition period, the role of expert opinions in determining the relevant indicators increases significantly, since the indicators used for calculation are not directive. Appropriate expert assessment can be obtained both after conducting special studies and using the accumulated experience of leading experts. The increase in risk in the implementation of the project requires a more thorough assessment of the critical moments of its implementation. Many initial indicators, often competing with each other, involve the use of expert assessments to construct a project quality criterion. Therefore, the investment assessment system in modern conditions, by necessity, becomes “human-algorithmic”, and the role of a human expert is decisive. Expert assessment is the opinion of experts on a specific issue identified by a special methodology. An expert assessment is necessary for making a decision at the stage of preparation of the PTES. But already in the feasibility study, the number of expert assessments should be minimal. Staged risk assessment is based on the fact that the risks are determined for each stage of the project separately, and then the total result for the entire project is found. Usually, in each project, the following stages are distinguished: preparatory (fulfillment of the entire range of works necessary to start the project); construction (construction of necessary buildings and structures, purchase and installation of equipment); functioning (bringing the project to full capacity and making a profit). The nature of an investment project as something done on an individual basis essentially leaves the only possibility for assessing risk values ​​- the use of expert opinions. Each expert, working separately, is presented with a list of primary risks for all stages of the project and is invited to assess the likelihood of risks occurring in accordance with the following rating system:

0 - the risk is considered insignificant;

25 - the risk is most likely not realized;

50 - nothing definite about the occurrence of the event

cannot be said;

75 - the risk is most likely to manifest itself;

100 - the risk is realized.

Expert evaluations are subjected to consistency analysis, which is performed according to certain rules. First, the maximum allowable difference between the estimates of two experts for any factor should not exceed 50. Comparisons are made modulo (plus or minus sign is not taken into account), which allows eliminating unacceptable differences in experts' estimates of the likelihood of a particular risk. If the number of experts is more than three, then pairwise comparable opinions are evaluated. Secondly, to assess the consistency of expert opinions on the entire set of risks, a pair of experts is identified whose opinions differ most. For calculations, the assessment discrepancies are summed modulo and the result is divided by the number of simple risks. The quotient of division should not exceed 25. If contradictions are found between the opinions of experts (at least one of the above rules is not followed), they are discussed at meetings with experts. In the absence of contradictions, all expert estimates are reduced to the average (arithmetic mean), which is used in further calculations. A separate problem is the justification and evaluation of priorities. Its essence lies in the need to free experts who assess the probability of risk from assessing the importance of each individual event for the entire project. This work should be carried out by the project developers, namely the team that prepares the list of risks to be assessed. The task of the experts is to give an assessment of the risks. After determining the probabilities for simple risks (obtaining an average expert assessment), it is necessary to obtain an integral risk assessment of the entire project. To do this, the risks of each sub-stage or composition of the stages are first calculated: functioning, financial and economic, technological, social and environmental. Then the risks of each stage are calculated - preparatory, construction, functioning.

Another important method of risk research is modeling the choice problem using a "decision tree". This method involves the graphical construction of decision options that can be taken. The branches of the "tree" correlate subjective and objective assessments of possible events. Following along the constructed branches and using special methods for calculating probabilities, each path is evaluated and then the less risky one is chosen.

2. Analysis of external risk at the research and production enterprise "Samara Horizons"

Under the analysis of external risk is understood as an assessment of the degree of influence of the external environment on the activities of the enterprise. For this, developed mathematical model and methodology for calculating the integral indicator of environmental impact Rou, and also shows the relationship this indicator with choice optimal strategy organization development.

1. By expert way, from the whole set of external risk factors, a lot of basic factors are distinguished that are the most significant for the enterprise: political, economic, social, scientific and technical, environmental. Other factors are added according to the scope of the business.

2. Compose the basic equation for calculating the integral indicator of the impact of the external environment R out :

, (1)

Where w i – specific gravity(significance) indicator (); x i- an indicator characterizing the degree of risk (basic factor); M– number of considered risk-forming components macroeconomic environment, i.e. underlying risk factors.

In paragraph 1, five basic factors are identified, therefore, M = 5.

3. Based on the methods for assessing the importance of the criterion (simple ranking method, pairwise comparison method, etc.), the weights (significance) of each basic factor are determined. If all factors are of equal importance (equally preferred or there is no preference system), then

w i = 1/ M =1/5 = 0.2.(2)

4. Expertly for each basic factor, a subset of the constituent factors (C-factors) is distinguished. For example, for the basic factor "Environmental" three C-factors have been identified (Table 1).

5. On the basis of expert methods and methods for assessing the importance of the criterion, the level (expectancy of manifestation) of each C-factor and its weight relative to the base factor are determined (see Table 1).

6. Based on the matrix aggregation scheme, an aggregated indicator is calculated for each basic factor. In order to use the matrix aggregation scheme, the linguistic variable "Factor level" is introduced with the term-set of values T 1 = "Very Low, Low, Acceptable, High, Very High" or T 2 = "Low, Acceptable, High". As a carrier x linguistic variable is a segment of the real axis - 01-carrier .

Table 1 - Weights and expected C-factors for basic

factor "Environmental"

We also introduce a system of five (three) corresponding membership functions m i ( x) of a trapezoid type (analytical representation (Table 2)) and a set nodal points a j = (0.1, 0.3, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9) for T 1 or a j = (0.1, 0.5, 0.9) for T 2 , which are the abscissas of the maxima of the corresponding membership functions on the 01-support, are uniformly separated from each other on the 01-support and are symmetrical with respect to node 0.5.

Then the linguistic variable "Level of the factor", defined on the 01-carrier, together with the set of nodal points is called standard five-level (three-level) fuzzy 01-classifier .

The quantitative value of the aggregated base factor is determined by the double convolution formula:

, (3)

Where a j are the nodal points of the standard five-level classifier, pi- weight i - th factor in the convolution, m ij (x i) is the value of the membership function j - th quality level relative to the current value i - th factor.

Level recognition by (4.1–4.5) or (5.1–5.3) shows that From 1 is clearly an average level; From 2- with a degree of confidence of 0.5 is medium, and with the same confidence - high. Level recognition From 3 gives an unambiguous recognition of this level as low (Table 3).

Table 2 - Analytical representation of functions

accessories for T 1 And T 2

T 1	T 2
. (4.1) . (4.2) . (4.3) . (4.4) . (4.5)	. (5.1) . (5.2) . (5.3)

Table 3 - Recognition of the level of C-factors on a standard

five-level 01 classifier

Factors	Significance (weight)	Membership functions (probability) for levels of C-factors
		Very low ( m1)	Short	Average	High	Very high ( m5)
From 1	0.2	0	0	1	0	0
From 2	0.5	0	0	0.5	0.5	0
From 3	0.3	0	1	0	0	0
Nodal points		0.1	0.3	0.5	0.7	0.9

During the calculation by the matrix from Table 3, the following result was obtained:

0.2*1*0.5+0.5*(0.5*0.5+0.5*0.7)+0.3*1*0.3 = 0.1+0.3+0.09 = 0.49.

Similarly, a matrix convolution is carried out for all basic risk-forming factors, as a result, aggregated indicators characterizing the degree of risk are obtained to calculate the integral indicator of the impact of the external environment R out .

7. Let's calculate the integral indicator of the degree of influence of the external environment R out according to a slightly modified formula (1):

, (6)

where is the aggregate indicator for i - mu basic factor.

8. Based on a five-level or three-level classifier, a recognition procedure is performed R out(table 4).

External environment changes state over time. Its high dynamism and the uncertainty of influencing factors require huge resources to build the capacity to counter threats. In this regard, the enterprise, in order to maintain the main parameters of its activities, create prerequisites for development and increase efficiency, can to forecast the impact of the macroeconomic environment based on the calculation of the integral indicator.

Table 4 - Classification of the level of the integral indicator
environmental impact based on fuzzy 01-classifiers

Type classify Kator	Interval values R out	Parameter level classification	Estimated degree confidence (membership function)
five-level	0 £ R out£0.15	Very low	1
	0 .15 < R out < 0.25	Very low	m 1 = 10 ´ (0.25 - R out)
		Short	1- m 1 \u003d m 2
	£0.25 R out£0.35	Short	1
	0.35 < R out < 0.45	Short	m 2 = 10 ´ (0.45 - R out)
		Acceptable	1- m 2 \u003d m 3
	0.45 £ R out£0.55	Acceptable	1
	0.55< R out < 0.65	Acceptable	m 3 = 10 ´ (0.65 - R out)
		High	1- m 3 \u003d m 4
	£0.65 R out£0.75	High	1
	0.75 < R out < 0.85	High	m4 = 10 ´ (0.85 - R out)
		Very tall	1-m4 = m5
	£0.85 R out£1.0	Very tall	1
three-level	0 £ R out£0.2	Short	1
	0.2 < R out < 0.4	Short	m 1 = 5 ´ (0.4 - R out)
		Acceptable	1- m 1 \u003d m 2
	0.4£ R out£0.6	Acceptable	1
	0.6 < R out < 0.8	Acceptable	m 2 = 10 ´ (0.8 - R out)
		High	1- m 2 \u003d m 3
	0.8£ R out£1.0	High	1

This makes it possible to adapt to new conditions in time and, accordingly, plan and carry out their activities according to one of the pre-developed scenarios. Table 5 presents the possible values ​​of the indicator of trends in the change in the macroeconomic environment on the scale [-1;+1] - TPmax, as well as the corresponding scenarios.

Table 5 - Indicators of trends in the macroeconomic environment

The dependence of the development scenario on the integral indicator of the impact of the external environment is shown in the figure. The abscissa axis is the value of the indicator R outн, the y-axis is the indicator TPmax н[–1;+1].

dependency graph R out and TPmax

For example, R out Î corresponds to an acceptable level (see Table 4). On this interval, in turn, TPmax takes values ​​from the range [–0.3; +0.3], which corresponds to the stabilization scenario (see Table 5). R out О positions high level indicator (see Table 4), which is responsible for the moderately pessimistic scenario: the closer R out to one, the more pessimism. On the contrary, more optimistic scenarios correspond to a lower integral indicator of the impact of the external environment.

2.1. Approbation of the developed model

Experience number 1. Stages of modeling according to the method

1. The division of external risk-forming factors into: political, scientific and technical, socio-economic and environmental factors is taken as a basis (Table 6). Expert estimates and weights are calculated as of 2009. Additional studies have not been conducted.

Table 6 - Factors of economic risk in activities

production enterprise (source: R.M. Kachalov)

1	2	3	4	5
	Factor name	Weighting factor (VC)	Peer Review (EA) (from 0 to 10)	Notes
1. POLITICAL FACTORS
110.01	Domestic and foreign political situation (0 - stable, 10 - unstable)	0,05	4
110.02		0,05	5
110.03		0,1	4
110.04		0,3	4
1	2	3	4	5
110.05	Nationalization (deprivatization (or expropriation for non-residents) without adequate commercial pensions (0 - impossible, 10 - very real)	0,3	2
110.06	The introduction of restrictions on the conversion of the ruble	0,1	5
110.07		0,05	3
110.08		0,05	3
S VC i = 1
2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS
120.01	Possibility of radical adjustment of the rules of conduct foreign economic activity (0 - impossible, 10 - very real)	0,05	2
120.02		0,05	2
120.03		0,1	5
120.04		0,1	4
120.05		0,2	7
120.06	Fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate beyond the predicted corridor or devaluation of the ruble (0 - impossible, 10 - very real)	0,1	3
1	2	3	4	5
120.07		0,1	3
120.08		0,1	8
120.09		0,2	4
S VC i = 1
3. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS
130.01		0,02	4
130.02		0,5	5
130.03		0,3	3
S VC i = 1

4. SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL FACTORS 140.01

at lower cost

(0 - impossible, 10 - very real)

0,2 3 140.02 0,2 2 140.03

Mastering the production of a replacement product by competitors

(0 - impossible, 10 - very real)

0,1 6 140.04 0,3 5 1 2 3 4 5 140.05 0,15 3 140.06 0,05 4 S VC i = 1

R out :

Table 7 gives the decoding of the designations from formula (7).

Table 7 - Names of basic factors x i and the weights of the factors w i for formula (7)

3. The weights (significance) of each basic factor are presented in Table 7. The factors are equivalent, the calculation is made according to the formula (2).

4. The contributory factors (C-factors) for each base factor are presented in Table 6.

5. Expert assessments, weights and probabilities of C-factors are shown in Table 6.

6. Table 8 shows the results of calculating the aggregated indicator for each basic factor.

Table 8 - The results of the calculation of the aggregated indicator

for each underlying factor x i

R out :

– for a five-level classifier

– for a three-level classifier 8. Table 9 shows the recognition results R out based on three-level and five-level classifiers.

Table 9 - Recognition results R out based

classifier type	three-level	five-level
Result procedures recognition	100% Acceptable	Low 50% Acceptable at 50%
TPmax value	0,11	0,29
Trend changes macroeconomic environment given level R out	Lack of dynamics of change. It is recommended to choose a stabilization scenario (prerequisites for development and increase in efficiency) of the organization's development.

Additionally, the TPmax indicator was calculated, which characterizes the general trend in the change in the macroeconomic environment for the selected risk factors. The result of its evaluation at a given level R out is also presented in Table 9. In both cases, the trend of change in the macroeconomic environment is characterized by a lack of dynamics of change, it is recommended to choose a stabilization (preconditions for development and increase in efficiency) scenario for the development of the organization.

2. Stages of modeling according to the method

1. The division of external risk-forming factors into: political, scientific, technical and environmental factors is taken as a basis (see table 6). Socio-economic factors are divided into two groups: social and economic. Expert estimates and weights are calculated as of November 2009 (Table 10). Specialists of CJSC NPP Samara Horizons, Samara, Samara Region, Russian Federation, took part in the examination.

Table 10 - Expert assessments and weights of risky

factors

1	2	3	4
№	Factor name	Weighting factor (VC)	Peer Review (EA) (from 0 to 10)
1. POLITICAL FACTORS
1		0,05	1
2	Government stability (0 - high, 10 - in danger of change)	0,05	2
3	Separatist tendencies in the regions (0 - absent, 10 - dominated)	0,1	2
4	The possibility of local ethno-political conflicts and civil unrest (score of social instability in the region: 0 - stable, 10 - extremely tense)	0,3	5
5		0,3	2
6		0,1	3
7	Termination of the contract due to actions of the authorities of the country of the counterparty company that are not provided for by the terms of force majeure (0 - impossible, 10 - very real)	0,05	6
8	Government breach of contract (0=impossible, 10=very likely)	0,05	3
S VK i = 1
2. SOCIAL FACTORS
1	Tax personnel error (0 - impossible, 10 - very real)	0,1	5
2	Decrease in effective demand in the geographical sector of the market for traditional products (0 - impossible, 10 - very real)	0,2	7
3	Deterioration of the standard of living of employees through no fault of the employer (0 - impossible, 10 - very real)	0,1	4
4	Staff turnover (0 - insignificant, 10 - very significant)	0,1	3
5	The outflow of highly qualified specialists to the "city" and competing firms (0 - impossible, 10 - very real)	0,2	5
6	Tighter rules/requirements for housing subsidies/benefits (0=impossible, 10=very feasible)	0,3	4
S VK i = 1
3. ECONOMIC FACTORS
1		0,05	3
2	Introduction of official restrictions on the movement of capital (1 - free movement, 10 - movement is prohibited)	0,05	2
3	Unmotivated violation of the terms of the contract (change in the price of raw materials, materials, components, semi-finished products, etc. after the conclusion of the contract) (0 - impossible, 10 - very realistic)	0,15	5
4		0,1	2
5	Emergence of new economic entities-competitors (in the same market sector) (0 - insignificant competitor, 10 - very significant competitor)	0,2	4
6	Exposure to hostile takeover (0 - impossible, 10 - very real)	0,1	6
7	Termination of the service bank: bankruptcy or revocation of the license (0 - impossible, 10 - very real)	0,25	2
8	Decreased investment attractiveness of the region, industry, etc. (0 - impossible, 10 - very real)	0,05	2
9	Tightening the rules and requirements for obtaining government subsidies, concessional loans, etc., aimed at developing business, industry (0 - impossible, 10 - very realistic)	0,05	2
S VK i = 1
4. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS
1	Changing the regional environmental situation (0 - impossible, 10 - very real)	0,2	4
2	Tightening of environmental requirements in the region where the enterprise operates (0 - impossible, 10 - very real)	0,5	5
3	Restrictions on the use of local natural resources(0 - impossible, 10 - very real)	0,3	3
S VK i = 1
5. SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL FACTORS
1	Appearance of competitors new technology production with lower costs (0 - impossible, 10 - very realistic)	0,2	3
2	The emergence of a new producer of goods or services in the sector of the enterprise's traditional products (0 - an insignificant competitor, 10 - a very significant competitor)	0,3	4
3		0,1	5
4	Accelerated copying of enterprise innovations by competitors through the use of industrial espionage (0 - impossible, 10 - very real)	0,1	3
5	Sudden destabilization of the industry: a technological breakthrough in other industries that devalued ready-made developments and recipes and innovative actions of the enterprise (0 - impossible, 10 - very real)	0,1	3
6	Violation of communication links between enterprises as business entities: unforeseen changes environment or physical conditions for the movement of commodity, financial, labor, etc. resources (0 - impossible, 10 - very real)	0,2	6
S VK i = 1

2. Basic equation for calculating the integral indicator of environmental impact R out :

Table 11 gives the decoding of the designations from formula (8).

Table 11 - Names of basic factors x i and the weights of the factors w i for formula (8)

3. The weights (significance) of each basic factor are presented in Table 11. The column "Factor weight" is divided into three parts: the left one - all factors are equivalent, the calculation is made according to the formula (2); medium - the factors are strictly ranked, the weights are calculated by the Fishburn method (formula (9)); right - the weights of the factors are set manually with an explicit indication of preference:

. (9)

4. The contributory factors (C-factors) for each base factor are presented in Table 10.

5. Expert assessments and weights of C-factors are shown in Table 10.

6. Table 12 shows the results of calculating the aggregated indicator for each basic factor, depending on the selected type of 01-classifier.

Table 12 - The results of calculating the aggregated indicator for each basic factor x i

7. Results of calculating the integral indicator of the degree of influence of the external environment R out depending on the choice of method for calculating the weights and the type of classifier are presented in Table 13.

Table 13 - Calculation results R out

8. Tables 14 and 15 show the recognition results R out R out also presented in tables 14 and 15.

Table 14 - Recognition results R out based

three-level classifier

Weight calculation method	Equivalent	Fishburne	Manually
	The three-level 01-classifier defines the calculated indicator of environmental impact as 100% Acceptable	The three-level 01-classifier defines the calculated indicator of environmental impact as Low by 15% Acceptable at 85%	The three-level 01-classifier defines the calculated indicator of environmental impact as Low by 10% 90% Acceptable
TPmax value	0,26	0,37	0,34
R out	It is characterized by the lack of dynamics of changes. It is recommended to choose a stabilization scenario (prerequisites for development and increase in efficiency) of the organization's development.		It is characterized by positive dynamics or stability. It is recommended to choose a moderately optimistic scenario for the development of the organization.

Table 15 - Recognition results R out based

five-level classifier

Weight calculation method	Equivalent	Fishburne	Manually
The result of the recognition procedure	The five-level 01-classifier defines the calculated indicator of environmental impact as Low at 60% Acceptable at 40%	The five-level 01-classifier defines the calculated indicator of environmental impact as Low 80% Acceptable at 20%	The five-level 01-classifier defines the calculated indicator of environmental impact as Low at 70% 30% Acceptable
TPmax value	0,31	0,37	0,34
The trend in the macroeconomic environment at a given level R out	It is characterized by positive dynamics or stability. It is recommended to choose a moderately optimistic scenario for the development of the organization.	It is characterized by positive dynamics or stability. It is recommended to choose a moderately optimistic scenario for the development of the organization.	It is characterized by positive dynamics or stability. It is recommended to choose a moderately optimistic scenario for the development of the organization.

Analysis of the results allows us to conclude that, depending on the choice of the type of the 01-classifier, the indicator of environmental impact is defined as low or acceptable. The trend in the macroeconomic environment is characterized by positive dynamics or stability. It is recommended to choose a moderately optimistic scenario for the development of the enterprise. For reinsurance, you can choose a stabilization scenario of development. The final choice depends on the decision maker.

Experience number 3. retrospective

1. The division of external risk-forming factors into: political, scientific and technical, socio-economic and environmental factors is taken as a basis (see table 6). Expert estimates and weights are calculated as of 2009 (Table 16). Specialists of CJSC NPP "Samara Horizons" took part in the examination.

Table 16 - Expert assessments and weights of risky

factors

1	2	3	4
№	Factor name	Weighting factor (VC)	Peer Review (EA) (from 0 to 10)
1. POLITICAL FACTORS
1	Domestic and foreign political situation (0 - stable, 10 - unstable)	0,2	8
2	Government stability (0 - high, 10 - in danger of change)	0,2	7
3	Separatist tendencies in the regions (0 - absent, 10 - dominated)	0,1	8
4	The possibility of local ethno-political conflicts and civil unrest (score of social instability in the region: 0 - stable, 10 - extremely tense)	0,25	8
5	Nationalization (deprivatization (or expropriation for non-residents) without adequate compensation (0 - not possible, 10 - very real)	0,05	4
6	The introduction of restrictions on the conversion of the ruble (0 - impossible, 10 - very realistic)	0,1	6
7	Termination of the contract due to actions of the authorities of the country of the counterparty company that are not provided for by the terms of force majeure (0 - impossible, 10 - very real)	0,05	3
1	2	3	4
8	Government breach of contract (0=impossible, 10=very likely)	0,05	5
S VK i = 1
2. SOCIO-ECONOMIC FACTORS
1	Possibility of radical adjustment of the rules for conducting foreign economic activity (0 - impossible, 10 - very real)	0,1	8
2	Introduction of official restrictions on the movement of capital (1 - free movement, 10 - movement is prohibited)	0,1	7
3	Tax personnel errors (0 - impossible, 10 - very real)	0,05	5
4	Unmotivated violation of the terms of the contract (change in the price of raw materials, materials, components, semi-finished products, etc. after the conclusion of the contract) (0 - impossible, 10 - very realistic)	0,05	4
5	Decrease in effective demand in the geographical sector of the market for traditional products (0 - impossible, 10 - very real)	0,25	7
6	Fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate beyond the predicted corridor or devaluation of the ruble (0 - impossible, 10 - very real)	0,1	6
7	Emergence of new economic entities-competitors (in the same market sector) (0 - insignificant competitor, 10 - very significant competitor)	0,05	3
8	Exposure to hostile takeover (0 - impossible, 10 - very real)	0,1	8
9	Termination of the service bank: bankruptcy or revocation of the license (0 - impossible, 10 - very real)	0,2	6
S VK i = 1
3. ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS
1	Changing the regional environmental situation (0 - impossible, 10 - very real)	0,2	4
2	Tightening of environmental requirements in the region where the enterprise operates (0 - impossible, 10 - very real)	0,5	5
3	Introduction of restrictions on the use of local natural resources (0 - impossible, 10 - very realistic)	0,3	3
S VK i = 1
14. SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNICAL FACTORS
1	The emergence of competitors of a new production technology with lower costs (0 - impossible, 10 - very real)	0,2	2
2	The emergence of a new producer of goods or services in the sector of the enterprise's traditional products (0 - an insignificant competitor, 10 - a very significant competitor)	0,2	5
3	Mastering the production of a replacement product by competitors (0 - impossible, 10 - very realistic)	0,1	5
4	Accelerated copying of enterprise innovations by competitors through the use of industrial espionage (0 - impossible, 10 - very real)	0,3	5
1	2	3	4
5	Sudden destabilization of the industry: a technological breakthrough in other industries that devalued ready-made developments and recipes and innovative actions of the enterprise (0 - impossible, 10 - very real)	0,15	3
6	Violation of communication links between enterprises as business entities: unforeseen changes in the environment or physical conditions for the movement of commodity, financial, labor, etc. resources (0 - impossible, 10 - very real)	0,05	7
S VK i = 1

2. The basic equation for calculating the integral indicator of the environmental impact is formula (7).

Table 17 gives the decoding of the symbols from formula (7).

Table 17 - Names of basic factors x i and the weights of the factors w i for formula (7)

3. The weights (significance) of each basic factor are presented in Table 17. The factors were strictly ranked, the calculation was made according to the Fishburn method (formula (9)).

4. The contributory factors (C-factors) for each base factor are presented in Table 16.

5. Expert assessments, weights and probabilities of C-factors are shown in Table 16.

6. Table 18 shows the results of calculating the aggregated indicator for each basic factor x i .

Table 18 - The results of calculating the aggregated indicator for each basic factor x i

7. The result of calculating the integral indicator of the degree of influence of the external environment R out :

– for a three-level classifier;

– for a five-level classifier.

8. Table 19 shows the recognition results R out based on three-level and five-level classifiers. Additionally, the TPmax indicator was calculated, which characterizes the general trend in the change in the macroeconomic environment for the selected risk factors. The result of its evaluation at a given level R out is also presented in Table 19. In both cases, the trend in macroeconomic environment change is characterized as negative for some environmental factors. It is recommended to choose a moderately pessimistic scenario for the development of the organization. On the whole, this does not contradict historical data - the political and economic situation in the country is extremely tense.

Table 19 - Recognition results R out based

three-level and five-level classifiers

classifier type	three-level	five-level
Result procedures recognition	The three-level 01-classifier defines the calculated indicator of environmental impact as 90% Acceptable 10% high	The five-level 01-classifier defines the calculated indicator of environmental impact as 40% Acceptable 60% high
TPmax value	-0,34	-0,31
The trend in the macroeconomic environment at a given level R out	It is characterized as negative by some environmental factors. It is recommended to choose a moderately pessimistic scenario for the development of the organization.

Approbation of the developed model for calculating the integral indicator of environmental impact for historical conditions (experiment No. 1 and No. 3) allows us to conclude that the obtained modeling results are consistent and, therefore, that the model itself is adequate.

Conclusion

In general, the use of the expert method of risk assessment makes it possible to visually trace the influence of individual initial factors on final result project, to identify at the preliminary stage the most significant risk factors, to take actions to minimize them.

Majority management decisions taken under conditions of risk, which is due to a number of factors: the lack of complete information, the presence of opposing tendencies, elements of chance, and many others. In the conditions of Russian instability, the problem of risk has great importance when substantiating managerial decisions not only of a strategic nature, but also at the stage of short-term planning. In this regard, the problem of assessing the risks of financial and economic activities of enterprises acquires independent theoretical and applied significance as an important part of the theory and practice of management. Risk should be understood as a consequence of an action or inaction, as a result of which there is a real possibility of obtaining uncertain results of a different nature, both positively and negatively affecting the financial and economic activities of the enterprise. Most researchers note that enterprises should not avoid risk at the decision-making stage, but should be able to competently and professionally manage it. For this, a risk analysis is carried out. The purpose of risk analysis is to provide potential partners with the necessary data to make decisions about the appropriateness of participating in the project and provide for measures to protect against possible financial losses.

Currently, the following methods of risk analysis are the most common:

Statistical;

Expert assessments;

Analytical;

Assessment of financial stability and solvency;

Cost feasibility assessments;

Analysis of the consequences of risk accumulation;

Method of using analogues;

Combined method.

The peer review method differs in the way information is collected to build the risk curve. This method involves the collection and study of estimates made by various experts (in the enterprise or external experts) regarding the probability of occurrence of various levels of losses. Estimates are based on taking into account all financial risk factors, as well as on statistical data.

In the process of work, an analysis of the external risk was carried out. Under the analysis of external risk is understood as an assessment of the degree of influence of the external environment on the activities of the enterprise. For this, a mathematical model and a method for calculating the integral indicator of the impact of the external environment have been developed. Rou, and also shows the relationship of this indicator with the choice of the optimal strategy for the development of the organization. The external environment changes its state over time. Its high dynamism and the uncertainty of influencing factors require huge resources to build the capacity to counter threats. In this regard, in order to maintain the main parameters of its activities, create prerequisites for development and increase efficiency, an enterprise can forecast the impact of the macroeconomic environment based on the calculation of an integral indicator.

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