Export diversification. The problem of Russian export diversification and a new concept of foreign economic policy
Economic sanctions, both imposed against Russia and by Russia itself against some countries, had a significant impact not only on the structure of Russian exports, but also on the country's production potential as a whole. Together with changes in world trade associated with the positions on international cooperation of the new US leadership, this opens up new prospects for Russia in global markets.
Under the conditions of anti-Russian sanctions by Western countries, the urgency of the task of geographic diversification of domestic exports has increased. What changes are taking place here?
In the mid-2010s, the degree of geographic diversification of Russian exports of goods and services increased with a focus on the countries of Asia, the Middle East and Africa.
In general, in the geographical structure of domestic merchandise exports in 2016, China almost equaled in importance with the Netherlands - the world's largest trader, Belarus for the first time came to the 4th position. Ukraine, on the contrary, continued to fall in the ranking of Russia's leading trading partners - 14th place in 2016 with the volume of Russian exports of $6.3 billion (almost 5 times less than in the peak year for Russian-Ukrainian trade in 2011. ).
In the African direction, Russian exports in 2016 grew by 30% (almost $3 billion), which contrasted sharply with the general trend. The largest increase in exports occurred in Algeria - an increase of 1975 million dollars, Angola - by 324 million, Ethiopia - by 177 million, Morocco - by 177 million, Egypt - by 107 million. 865 million dollars), in Asia - Malaysia (350 million dollars)
Table prepared by ExpertOnlineThe geographical distribution of exports of non-commodity non-energy goods differs significantly from the picture for all merchandise exports: in the first case, the role of the CIS is much higher (the weight of the CIS is 23% - more than that of Asia and is comparable to Europe), as well as the Middle East, Africa and America. About 14% of the total export of non-commodity non-energy goods falls on the EAEU countries, while, for example, on the states of East Asia - only 13%.
Any changes in exports are based directly on the exporting companies. What is the dynamics here, and to what extent Russian entrepreneurs involved in export business?
In the past period of the 2010s, there was a steady increase in the number of exporting organizations (without individual entrepreneurs). Their total number approached 48 thousand in 2016, which is 17% more than in 2015 and 43.5% more than in 2013. However, this is still a very small part of all organizations registered in Russia - less 1%, which is an order of magnitude less than most active global traders, due to the low involvement of small and medium-sized enterprises in the export business.
What conclusions, in your opinion, can be made on the basis of the situation you have described in Russian exports? What are our chances in the global market?
In my opinion, the totality of the above factors and arguments allows us to say that, while maintaining systemic problems in the export sector, the Russian export complex, nevertheless, demonstrates significant mobilization and innovation potential and is fundamentally capable of expanding into new product niches and new global markets. markets. Key conditions for such expansion:
- support from the Russian industrial and technological revolution, which is necessary for the consistent diversification of exports and ensuring its high competitiveness;
- implementation of an effective pro-export ideology and goal-setting, which is, first of all, necessary for mobilizing Russia's current export opportunities, expanding the export sector and prioritizing trading partners;
- creation of a competitive national export support system that provides mechanisms and support tools at the level of the best world standards and provides the most comfortable institutional and regulatory conditions for export activities;
- conducting a proactive trade policy of Russia and the EAEU for a deep opening of foreign markets.
You talk about opportunities for Russian export expansion, but competition on the world market is very intense, protectionist sentiments are growing, especially coming from the new US administration, and anti-Russian sanctions remain. How to deal with all this?
External challenges, risks and restrictions for Russian exports, of course, do not disappear and even increase, but today many of these challenges and restrictions can be used as additional incentives for diversifying and improving the efficiency of Russia's international commercial activities.
Schedule prepared by ExpertOnline
A serious challenge for Russian exports and their prospects is associated with the rapid industrialization of China and its aggressive entry into those export niches where Russia previously felt comfortable. China has not only abandoned Russian imports in favor of own production, but also pushes Russia into the markets of third countries. This applies, first of all, to basic industrial semi-finished products - chemical products, ferrous metals, certain timber and paper products, etc. The above, although to a lesser extent, is typical for other BRICS countries.
An effective strategy for Russia in such a situation involves diversifying exports to find new export niches, such as China, and/or moving to more high level redistribution and complexity in terms of competing types of products (for example, China has strongly pressed Russia in the ferrous metal market of Vietnam, where countries compete in low-added product niches; while Japan retains its position, since it supplies high-quality rolled products).
An equally serious challenge to implement export potential Russia is associated with the formation and expansion of the number of regional trade agreements of a new generation, which provide the participating states with significant mutual advantages in terms of market access, compared with third countries. Russia and its partners in the EAEU are still very weakly involved in this activity. At the same time, the US withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership after the election of D. Trump, the emphasis of the new American administration on concluding “honest” bilateral deals with a readiness to revise existing agreements, as well as freezing the project of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership after the decision was made to withdraw the UK from the EU, which in general increase the uncertainty in the development of the international trading system, for Russia, however, create a “window of opportunity” in terms of rebalancing its external positioning and transition to a proactive trade policy within the EAEU to open up foreign markets, especially in Eurasia and the Asia-Pacific region.
Stagnation with increased price volatility in the markets for energy, other commodities and materials led to a slowdown economic dynamics and contraction of domestic demand in developing countries exporting these goods. And many of these states are potential markets for Russian industrial and agricultural products. But at the same time, the fall in export earnings prompts the countries in question to take measures to diversify the economy along the lines of infrastructure and industrial construction, where Russia has significant experience and competitive advantages.
A sensitive deterrent for Russian exports is the persistence of geopolitical tensions, the ongoing sanctions confrontation with the West, the actual curtailment of trade with largest partner– Ukraine. On the one hand, all this severely limits access to external financing(it is much more difficult for Russian companies to make competitive offers on the financial terms of transactions to their foreign partners) and generally worsens the conditions for doing business in foreign markets. On the other hand, this situation is a powerful incentive for the development of a national export support system, geographical diversification overseas sales with a focus on Asian countries and other dynamic emerging markets, the formation of industries with export potential within the framework of the import substitution policy.
To be continued
You can get acquainted with our other publications on Russian exports.
Spartak Andrey Andrey Nikolaevich Spartak
Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Director of the All-Russian Research Institute of Market Studies, Head of the Department of Higher Aviation and Technical Technologies of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia
In search of a new place in M.r.t. developing countries have embarked on the path of mutual cooperation, one of the main forms of which is the creation of regional economic organizations. Developing countries raised the issue of a new international economic order, and their requirements for industrialized countries were not limited only to creating more favorable conditions for the sale of their traditional goods on the world market, but also to encourage the development of industry for the processing of local raw materials, export diversification. Under the new conditions, companies from industrialized countries have increased their investments in their manufacturing industries, however, mainly material-intensive, labor-intensive, environmentally friendly harmful production or the production of individual parts or assemblies for products of the latest industries, the assembly of which is carried out in industrialized countries.
Foreign trade diversification covers exports and imports. Diversification of imports reduces or eliminates dependence on a single source of purchases. In the event of a deterioration, for example, of relations with a given country, it is possible to increase purchases of these products in other countries. Diversification of exports leads to an increase in the range of goods and services supplied to the foreign market, which helps to increase its efficiency and reduces the dependence of the national economy on fluctuations in the world market, and in particular on fluctuations in world prices. For example, Russian exports are dominated by oil exports. The sharp decline in world prices for it in 1997-98. significantly reduced foreign exchange earnings in the country, which
Changes in the structure of developing countries, overcoming the one-sidedness of the economy, the implementation of industrialization policies, the trend towards diversification of exports - all this is gradually creating more favorable conditions for the sale of products by developing countries on the world market. Def. value in weakening And. has an expansion of the circle of bargaining, partners, a weakening of the unilateral dependence of the newly-free countries on the former. metropolises. An important factor for developing countries is the expansion of economy, ties with the socialist. countries, to-rys conduct trade with them on the principles of equality and mutual benefit.
At present, due to the diversification of exports, the range of exported products is being updated at an accelerated pace, which is due to the influence of scientific and technological revolution.
Among OPEC members, perhaps so far only in Kuwait other current incomes in the balance of payments - profits from foreign investments - could to a certain extent play the role of an alternative source of currency, especially in the early 80s, when they increased sharply due to the unprecedented rise in the cost of loans. capital in the West and a deep decline in oil exports in terms of volume and value. It is possible that some other small Arabian monarchies may find themselves in the same position in the future. Nevertheless, the mining industry, as well as the lower echelons of the manufacturing industry that are being created, will remain the main engines of expanded reproduction, and it is on these industries that the complex process of diversifying sources of accumulation will be based.
Trends in the structural restructuring of the world economy and increased competition in world markets are characterized by the example of the markets for oil, chemical products, ferrous metals and aluminum, i.e. industries that form the basis of Russian exports. The book shows that the Russian economy in its further development can no longer rely only on these sectors, it needs a serious structural restructuring. Diversification oil companies countries can and should become integral part this restructuring.
It is difficult to overestimate the importance of oil for the countries of the Middle East. The revenues received from its exports form the basis of the public finances of these countries; the very possibility of implementing basic socio-economic projects and plans is connected with the prospect of their increase. The prospects for accelerated development and diversification of their economy, its withdrawal from the oil base depend to a large extent on the prices at which this valuable, depleting raw material will be sold.
Behind the façade of the apparent well-being of the trade balance, there are phenomena and trends that do little to meet the once-sounded promises of the authorities to achieve a restructuring of Russia's foreign trade policy in such a way as to ensure the diversification of the export potential, the outpacing growth in exports of science-intensive products, the development of industries that are competitive on the world market, the transition from critical supporting imports to imports stimulating an increase in the technical level and quality of domestic products.196 Failure to do this creates a direct threat to Russia's position already in geopolitical terms.
There are no single approaches for the considered performance indicators of the company. They depend on many factors of industry affiliation, lending principles, the current structure, working capital turnover, the reputation of the enterprise, etc. leverage ratio - Lenders (suppliers of raw materials and materials, banks providing short-term loans, and other business partners) give a natural preference to enterprises with a high share of equity capital, with greater financial autonomy. So, the causes of financial insolvency and poor solvency can be divided into external and internal. External causes include, first of all, economic factors (a general decline in production in the country, a crisis of non-payments, bankruptcy of debtors), political factors (political instability of society, imperfection of legislation in the field of economic law, conditions for export and import), as well as the level of development of science and technology (outdated technologies, insufficiency of capital investments in high-tech industries, unsatisfactory conversion), etc. To mitigate the impact of such factors, an enterprise can take a number of measures. Among them is the issuance of new shares. The fact that the stock market in the country is still underdeveloped serves as an argument for a very cautious attraction of the necessary funds through this channel. A more reliable method of improving the financial condition of the company is the diversification of production (the dispersal of assets across different activities). In some cases, it is effective to limit the scope of production activities. For example, in the charter of a number of oil and gas organizations, until recently, the main types of activities related to oil and gas production were
Another approach to hedging economic currency risk is global diversification, which entails expanding the markets in which the company operates and developing manufacturing facilities located around the world. If the real exchange rate in a particular country falls, the company can increase output there and export to those countries where real exchange rates either rise or stay the same. Since the real exchange rate is constantly changing, the enterprise, applying global diversification, will not miss the market and realize production opportunities as they arise.
New, growing Diversification Market expansion Informing consumers Decrease in output New markets Export
The integrated program also proceeded from the need to encourage the development in the newly-free countries of an industry for the processing of local raw materials, the diversification of their exports, and a wider participation in international transportation and the sale of raw materials.
Spartak A.N. Export of Russia in the XXI century from specialization to diversification // BIKI. - 2003. - No. 15. - S. 1-2.
There are several types of D. a) tori-zone ishnaya (replenishment of the assortment with new products that are not related to those produced) b) concentric (replenishment of the assortment with new products similar to those already produced) c) conglomerate (replenishment of the assortment with products that are not related to the one used technologies, products and markets). EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION Increasing the number of types and types of products and services intended for export. As a result, D. e. created Better conditions for economic maneuver, expanding opportunities to overcome negative impact on the economy of unfavorable market conditions. D. e. associated with the accelerated renewal of the range of exported products.
One of the main forms of mutual cooperation in developing countries is the creation of regional economic organizations. Developing countries have raised the question of a new world economic order, which consists in encouraging the development of industry for the processing of local raw materials, the diversification of exports. Companies in developed countries have increased their investments in the manufacturing industries of developing countries, but mainly in material-intensive, labor-intensive, environmentally harmful industries.
Export can be a substitute for diversification, so it can be assumed that the specialized company has a rather high export-to-output ratio. However, this assumption is not supported by the facts. Tab. Figure 4.6 shows that the diversified companies (RMT and RT) have only a slightly above-average share of exports and that exports are related to R&D. Among specialized companies the share of exports is high for companies in the automotive, metallurgical and watch industries, and among the diversified ones - companies in the shipbuilding industry, pro-household appliances and photographic equipment.
To determine the effectiveness of each mechanism, their detailed analysis is required in terms of such basic parameters as mutual participation in capital the possibility of joint activities the possibility of diversifying and increasing production volumes and sales of products up to export cost savings achieving solidarity the possibility of identifying a leader in the consolidated capital credit structure), etc. What is common is that any mechanism must provide the possibility of corporate integrated strategic management.
Diversification of directions of transportation and export of hydrocarbon raw materials. Today, oil exports from the Atyrau region are carried out mainly using the existing pipeline system through the territory of the Russian Federation with further access to the ports of the Black and Baltic Seas. The purpose of pipeline projects is to ensure a systematic increase in the volume of exports to the world markets for oil produced by Tengiz-Chevroil LLP in the future on the shelf of the Caspian Sea, as well as to optimize and diversify export flows to the maximum in relation to the specific situation on the world hydrocarbon markets .
In the context of globalization feature world development is the rapid growth of outwardly economic ties, outpacing the growth rate of the gross national product of the countries participating in world trade. The main reason for the rapid growth and strengthening of various forms of economic ties in the sphere of interstate relations is the deepening of the internationalization of economic life.
To date, income from foreign trade of Russia account for approximately 40% of federal budget revenues.
However, the growth in exports is primarily due to the sale of mineral resources, fuel and processed products. At the same time, the main import items are machinery, equipment, etc. Thus, the main problems of Russia's foreign trade are: a high degree of raw material orientation of exports, the predominance of finished products in the import structure and a low degree of diversification of the geography of Russia's foreign trade.
For Russia's effective participation in international trade, the structure of both exports and imports needs to be diversified. It is necessary to take a set of measures that will reduce the volume of exported raw materials and increase sales of finished products abroad.
These measures include:
- · Modernization of existing sectors of the Russian economy such as the nuclear sector, aircraft manufacturing, space technology, the military-industrial complex sector, to ensure a breakthrough in the markets of high-tech goods, and in the future to achieve a leading position in world markets;
- · providing organizational and financial support for R&D;
- facilitating the attraction of necessary technologies through industrial cooperation and building alliances with leading global companies;
- · stimulating the attraction of advanced foreign technologies and foreign investment in the manufacturing industries for their technological modernization and competitiveness;
- · Decrease in the share of imported goods that can be produced in Russia.
diversification problem.
The problem of dependence of the Russian economy on energy exports is the subject of close attention of both the population and the authorities. Russian economy on this stage is really highly dependent on oil and gas supplies abroad. On the other hand, in recent years we can state a decrease in this dependence. To do this, the government uses methods of tax regulation, significant gold and foreign exchange reserves and a reserve stabilization fund, which will allow fulfilling the social obligations of the state to citizens even in the event of a fall in energy prices. It is for this purpose that the Stabilization, Investment, Venture Funds and a number of other instruments were created.
Oil prices are volatile, usually periods high income for oil-exporting countries is impossible to predict. To achieve macroeconomic stability, it is necessary to adhere to a strict relationship between the level of growth and the degree of export stability (in this case, export stability refers to the diversification of exports in favor of goods and services with smaller price fluctuations). In addition, it is also necessary to track similar fluctuations in other commodity markets in which Russia holds a leading position (steel, aluminum, nickel). Those. a policy of "stable export earnings" (cyclical investment in industries subject to price fluctuations) should be pursued.
World Bank Group (structure, functions and goals, role in the global financial system).
The main institutions in the sphere of regulation of the world monetary system are the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank Group (WB).
The World Bank Group - five organizations created at different times and united functionally, organizationally and territorially, the purpose of which is currently to provide financial and technical assistance to developing countries.
- The World Bank Group is made up of several organizations with different functions:
- · international bank reconstruction and development (IBRD);
- · International Development Association (IDA);
- International financial corporation(IFC);
- · Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA);
- · International Center for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID).
- · The Group is headquartered in Washington, DC, USA.
The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), commonly known as the World Bank, is the main lending institution of the World Bank Group (established at the Bretton Woods Conference in 1944). Unlike the IMF, the World Bank provides loans for the economic development of countries. IBRD is the largest lender of development projects in developing countries with an average income per capita.
The International Development Association (IDA), established in 1960. Its purpose is to provide assistance to the poorest countries. Countries with a per capita GDP of $835 or less are eligible to receive IDA loans. IDA provides interest-free loans with 30-40-year repayment periods and deferred principal payments for the first ten years. More than 160 countries are members of IDA.
International Finance Corporation (IFC), established in 1956. Its purpose is to stimulate the work of the private sector in developing countries. IFC finances private sector projects. Lenders' interest rates vary by country and project. Repayment of loans is carried out within 3-15 years. Deferral of payments is possible during the first 3-5 years. The IFC has over 170 member countries.
Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA). (Created in 1982) The purpose of the organization is to help developing countries attract foreign investment by providing investors with guarantees against political risks.
Such risks may include hostilities, civil unrest, expropriation. MIGA provides a standard insurance policy that guarantees the investment for 25 years. The maximum amount guaranteed per project is $50 million. In addition, MIGA consults with developing countries on the issues of attracting foreign investment. More than 140 countries are members of MIGA.
International Center for the Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID). (Created in 1966) The purpose of the organization is to stimulate the flow of investment by providing conditions for conciliation and arbitration negotiations between governments and foreign investors. ICSID issues recommendations and publishes works on foreign investment law. About 130 countries are members of ICSID.
EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION
increase in the number of types and names of products and services intended for export. As a result of EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION, better conditions are created for economic maneuvering, opportunities are expanded to overcome the negative impact on the economy of an unfavorable economic situation, incl. worsening terms of trade. At the present stage, EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION is associated with an accelerated renewal of the range of exported products under the influence of scientific and technological revolution.
Dictionary of financial terms. 2012
See also interpretations, synonyms, word meanings and what is EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION in Russian in dictionaries, encyclopedias and reference books:
- EXPORT
DIVERSIFICATION. see EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION... - DIVERSIFICATION
an increase in the number of industries and the range of goods (services) produced by individual enterprises in new to them ... - EXPORT in the Dictionary of Economic Terms:
PROMOTION - see EXPORT PROMOTION... - EXPORT in the Dictionary of Economic Terms:
AND IMPORT STRUCTURE - see EXPORT AND IMPORT STRUCTURE ... - EXPORT in the Dictionary of Economic Terms:
AND IMPORT QUOTATION AND LICENSING - see QUOTATION AND LICENSING OF EXPORT AND IMPORT ... - EXPORT in the Dictionary of Economic Terms:
VOLUNTARY RESTRICTIONS (SELF-LIMITATIONS) - see VOLUNTARY RESTRICTIONS (SELF-LIMITATIONS) ... - DIVERSIFICATION in the Dictionary of Economic Terms:
EXPORT - expansion of the number of types and names of products intended for export and ... - DIVERSIFICATION in the Dictionary of Economic Terms:
HORIZONTAL - see HORIZONTAL DIVERSIFICATION... - DIVERSIFICATION in the Dictionary of Economic Terms:
(from lag. diversus - different and facere - to do) - 1) distribution of invested or loaned money capital between different objects... - DIVERSIFICATION in the Big Encyclopedic Dictionary:
(from medieval Latin diversificatio - change in diversity), 1) the penetration of firms into industries that do not have a direct production connection or functional dependence ... - DIVERSIFICATION
(Late Latin diversificatio - change, diversity, from Latin diversus - different and facio - I do), one of the forms of capital concentration. Diversifying… - DIVERSIFICATION in the Modern Encyclopedic Dictionary:
- DIVERSIFICATION
(in medieval Latin diversificatio - change, diversity), 1) penetration of companies, banks through investments, purchases of shares, systems of participation in the industry, not ... - DIVERSIFICATION in the Encyclopedic Dictionary:
and, pl. no, well .. special. Diversified development of production, aimed at expanding the range of manufactured … - DIVERSIFICATION in the Big Russian Encyclopedic Dictionary:
DIVERSIFICATION (from the Middle Ages, Latin diversificatio - change, diversity), the penetration of firms into industries that do not have direct production. relationship or functional dependency… - DIVERSIFICATION in the New Dictionary of Foreign Words:
(lat. diversus different + facere do) diversity, diversified development; production - the simultaneous development of many, not related to each other ... - DIVERSIFICATION in the Dictionary of Foreign Expressions:
[lat. diversus different + facere do] diversity, diversified development; production - the simultaneous development of many, not related to each other ... - DIVERSIFICATION in the dictionary of Synonyms of the Russian language:
change, … - DIVERSIFICATION in the New explanatory and derivational dictionary of the Russian language Efremova:
and. 1) Expansion of the scope of activities in the production of products by increasing its range (in the economy). 2) Refusal of narrow specialization ... - DIVERSIFICATION in the Dictionary of the Russian Language Lopatin:
diversification, ... - DIVERSIFICATION full spelling dictionary Russian language:
diversification... - DIVERSIFICATION in the Spelling Dictionary:
diversification, ... - DIVERSIFICATION in the Modern Explanatory Dictionary, TSB:
(from medieval Latin diversificatio - change, diversity), 1) the penetration of firms into industries that do not have a direct production connection or functional dependence ... - DIVERSIFICATION in the Explanatory Dictionary of Efremova:
diversification 1) Expansion of the scope of activities in the production of products by increasing its range (in the economy). 2) Refusal of the narrow ... - DIVERSIFICATION in the New Dictionary of the Russian Language Efremova:
and. 1. Expansion of the scope of activities in the production of products by increasing its range (in the economy). 2. Refusal of narrow specialization ... - DIVERSIFICATION in the Big Modern Explanatory Dictionary of the Russian Language:
and. 1. Expansion of the scope of activities in the production of products by increasing its range (in the economy). 2. Rejection... - PRODUCTION DIVERSIFICATION in the Dictionary of Financial Terms:
(activities) the transition from one-sided, often based on only one product production structure, to a multi-profile production with a wide range of manufactured ... - PRODUCT DIVERSIFICATION in the Dictionary of Financial Terms:
one of the forms competition in a modern market economy. It is expressed in the production of a significant number of modifications of the same ... - DIVERSIFICATION OF INVESTMENTS in the Dictionary of Financial Terms:
the distribution of the investor's capital between different securities. In world practice, it is customary to limit investments in each type of securities to 10 percent ... - ROBERT KIYOSAKI at Wiki Quote:
Data: 2009-03-01 Time: 00:01:37 * Rich dad often asked Mike and me the question, “If you had nothing… - NINTENDO in Encyclopedia Japan from A to Z:
(Nintendo Co., Ltd.) is a Japanese company widely known as a manufacturer of home video games and related equipment. The company was founded in 1947… - EXPORT in the Dictionary of Financial Terms:
export abroad of goods, services and capital for sale in foreign markets. There are EXPORT of goods, i.e. export of material goods, reimbursable ... - CURRENCY MARKETS in the Dictionary of Financial Terms:
a system of socio-economic and organizational relations for the sale and purchase of foreign currencies and payment documents in foreign currencies. CURRENCY MARKETS serve as a mechanism through... - CONTROL in the Dictionary of Economic Terms:
RISK - the activity of the enterprise. firms, banks, aimed at reducing possible losses due to risk. The most common methods U r. are diversification... - HORIZONTAL in the Dictionary of Economic Terms:
DIVERSIFICATION - expanding the range, composition of products through the production of new products that differ from already ... - JAPAN in big Soviet encyclopedia, TSB:
(Japanese: Nippon, Nihon). I. General information Japan is a state located on the islands of the Pacific Ocean, near the coast of East Asia. As part of… - YUGOSLAVIA
- SWEDEN in the Great Soviet Encyclopedia, TSB.
- FINLAND in the Great Soviet Encyclopedia, TSB:
(Suomi), Republic of Finland (Suomen Tasavalta). I. General information F. v state in the north of Europe. It borders on the USSR in the east (length ... - TRADE BALANCE in the Great Soviet Encyclopedia, TSB:
balance, a balance that reflects the ratio of the value of a country's exports and imports over a certain period (usually a year). It includes… - SUDAN (STATE) in the Great Soviet Encyclopedia, TSB:
Democratic Republic of Sudan I. General Information S. is a state in Northeast Africa. It borders on the north with ... - THE USSR. FOREIGN TRADE AND FOREIGN ECONOMIC RELATIONS in the Great Soviet Encyclopedia, TSB:
trade and foreign economic relations Foreign trade Development of foreign trade. Russia's foreign trade reflected the nature of its economy. Leading role in... - NIGERIA in the Great Soviet Encyclopedia, TSB:
(Nigeria) federal Republic Nigeria (Federal Republic of Nigeria). I. General information N. is a state in West Africa, in the basin of the lower ... - COSTA RICA in the Great Soviet Encyclopedia, TSB:
(Costa Rica), the Republic of Costa Rica (Republica de Costa Rica), a state in Central America. It borders Nicaragua in the north, and Nicaragua in the southeast. - ... - INDONESIA in the Great Soviet Encyclopedia, TSB:
(Indonesia), Republic of Indonesia (Republik Indonesia). I. General Information I. is a state in Southeast Asia. Located on the islands of the Malay (Indonesian) archipelago, ... - INDIA in the Great Soviet Encyclopedia, TSB:
(in Hindi - Bharat); official name of the Republic of India. I. General information I. - a state in South Asia, in the basin ... - INTERNATIONAL TRADE in the Great Soviet Encyclopedia, TSB:
trade, trade of one country with other countries, consisting of import (import) and export (export) of goods. V. t. of different countries ... - UNITED KINGDOM (STATE) in the Great Soviet Encyclopedia, TSB.
Diversification is a necessary direction for the development of Russian exports
VL. Seltsovsky
An important indicator effective development of foreign trade is its commodity structure, ie. share in exports and imports of individual commodity groups. In this regard, the study and analysis commodity structure are of great importance and are carried out on the basis of grouped commodity groups according to the commodity nomenclature of Russia's foreign economic activity.
Raise economic efficiency foreign trade on the basis of increasing the share of goods with a deeper degree of industrial processing in exports, primarily engineering products, and optimizing imports is one of the most pressing and complex problems in the development of Russia's foreign economic relations. This problem was acute even in Soviet times. Despite the implementation of some positive changes in the structure of Soviet exports, the tasks of improving it were solved slowly.
Current export structure Russian Federation has a one-sided character. Our export is highly dependent on a relatively narrow range of goods - oil, oil products, gas, metals, timber products. Moreover, the raw material orientation of our country's exports noticeably increased in the 1990s and 2000s, i.e. in the post-Soviet period, which is clearly seen from Table 1.
So, in 2007 only specific gravity fuel and energy products (oil, oil products, gas, coal, electricity) exceeded 68%; about 17% of all exports are for metals; products of the chemical industry
wares account for 5% in exports, timber products - over 3%. Thus, the share of fuel, raw materials and semi-finished products is currently more than 90% of the export of the Russian Federation to non-CIS countries.
The share of machinery and equipment in exports to non-CIS countries at current prices decreased significantly in the 1990s and 2000s, and in 2007, even taking into account military-technical supplies, it amounted to only 3.4% (the share of civil engineering products - 2%). Specific gravity finished products does not even reach 10%. In 1990, the share of machinery and equipment in the export of the Russian Federation without military-technical cooperation was 17.6%, and the share of finished products was 33%. For the period 1991-2007. export of machinery and equipment of the Russian Federation decreased by 20%. The structure of Russia's foreign trade with individual trading partners from the group of developed countries is even more raw and one-sided.
Such an indicator of the specific weight of machinery and equipment is unacceptably small for developed country. In general, the share of machinery and equipment in world exports is currently about 40%.
The share of exports of Russian machinery and equipment in world exports of these products was only 0.4% in 2007, compared with 2.7% of the share of all Russian exports in world exports. Domestic exports of machinery and equipment in 2006 were 25 times lower than those of the United States, 10 times the Republic of Korea, 8 times Singapore, 4 times Malaysia and 6 times
Taiwan1.
Table 1
Commodity structure of exports of the Russian Federation to non-CIS countries (outside the CIS)
in actual (current) prices
Export - total 71.1 100.0 63.7 100.0 62.2 100.0 89.2 100.0 208.8 100.0 258.9 100.0 299.9 100.0
Machinery, equipment and vehicles 12.6 17.6 5.3 8.3 6.0 9.6 6.7 7.5 7.6 3.6 10.0 3.9 10.1 3.4
Mineral products 32.3 45.5 25.8 40.5 27.1 43.5 48.7 54.5 141.4 67.7 178.7 69.0 205.2 68.4
Metals, precious stones and articles thereof 9.2 12.9 19.5 30.8 18.1 29.2 20.9 23.5 36.5 17.5 43.6 16.8 49.3 17 .6
Products of the chemical industry 3.3 4.6 6.3 9.9 5.1 8.2 6.0 6.7 11.4 5.5 13.0 5.1 16.1 5.4
Wood and paper products 3.1 4.4 3.9 6.1 3.4 5.5 4.1 4.5 7.1 3.4 8.0 3.1 10.1 3.4
Textiles, textile products and footwear (clothing and footwear) 0.7 1.0 0.8 1.2 0.6 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.1
Raw hides, furs and products made from them 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.1
Foodstuffs and agricultural raw materials 1.5 2.1 1.0 1.5 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.0 2.3 1.1 2.8 1.1 5.4 1.8
Other 8.4 11.8 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.9 1.2 1.4 1.8 0.9 2.1 0.8 3.1 1.0
Sources: Russian Statistical Yearbook. 1998, 2002, 2005 - M.: Goskomstat of Russia 1998, 2002; Russia in figures, 2002, 2003 - M.: Goskomstat of Russia, 2002, 2003; Customs statistics of foreign trade of the Russian Federation. 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007.
As already noted, the low coefficient of structural specialization of engineering products, as well as the fact that in 2006 Russia accounted for 6% of world steel production, while Russia's share in world exports of machinery and equipment accounted for only 0.3%. For comparison, you can
It should be noted that the share of France in world steel production is 3%, while the share in world exports of machinery and equipment is 5%.
As for the USA, Japan, Germany, the share of these countries in world steel production at the beginning of 2000 was (%): USA - 14, Japan - 14, Germany - 6; the share of these countries in world exports of machinery and equipment in
2006 respectively was (%): 11, 10 and 122.
table 2
The commodity structure of exports of the Russian Federation to the CIS in the actual
(current) prices
Product group 1990 1995 1999 2000 2005 2006 2007
USD billion % of total USD billion % of total USD billion % of total USD billion % of total USD billion % of total USD billion % of total USD billion % of total
Export - total 13.9 100.0 14.5 100.0 10.7 100.0 13.8 100.0 32.6 100.0 42.3 100.0 52.6 100.0
Machinery, equipment and vehicles 2.4 17.3 2.7 18.3 2.0 18.6 2.4 17.0 5.9 18.2 7.4 17.6 9.6 18.3
Mineral products 7.3 52.7 7.5 51.4 5.6 52.5 6.8 4.1 15.0 46.0 19.9 47.1 23.1 43.9
Metals, precious stones and articles thereof 1.2 8.7 1.4 9.5 0.9 8.3 1.4 10.4 4.1 12.6 5.4 12.7 7.4 14.0
Chemical industry products 1.3 9.6 1.5 10.8 1.1 10.1 1.4 10.2 2.9 9.0 3.7 8.8 4.7 9.0
Wood and pulp and paper products 0.5 3.2 0.5 3.3 0.3 2.7 0.4 3.0 1.2 3.5 1.5 3.6 2.1 4.0
Textiles, textile products and footwear (clothing and footwear) 0.4 2.9 0.3 2.3 0.2 1.8 0.3 2.0 0.5 1.5 0.6 1.4 0.6 1.1
Raw hides, furs and products made from them 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Food products and agricultural raw materials 0.5 3.7 0.4 2.8 0.5 4.3 0.7 5.3 2.2 6.8 2.7 6.3 3.7 7.1
Other 0.3 1.8 0.2 1.5 0.1 1.5 0.4 2.7 0.7 2.2 1.0 2.4 1.3 2.5
Sources: Russian Statistical Yearbook. 1998; 2002; 2005; Russia in Figures 2002, 2005; Customs statistics of foreign trade of the Russian Federation 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007.
The structure of Russian exports to neighboring countries (CIS) is generally more progressive than Russia's trade with non-CIS countries (Table 2). At the same time, in the long term, there are no prerequisites for increasing the share of finished goods in Russia's exports to the CIS countries. Russian deliveries of military equipment to these countries are falling.
In addition, there appears to be a long-term decline in demand for Russian civil engineering products, as countries prefer to deal with far-abroad suppliers with their higher technology and willingness to invest in their economies.
It should be noted that, along with the negative change in the structure of Russia's foreign trade, the indicators of the country's foreign economic activity as a whole have deteriorated sharply, as a result of which Russia's position in the world market has significantly weakened. Russia's share in world trade from 1985 to 2007 decreased from 3.6% to 2.7%. By volume foreign trade turnover Russia in 2007 ranked 16th in the world (in 1990 - 10th)3.
The main reason for the strengthening of the fuel and raw material orientation and the decrease in the industrial nature of the structure of the foreign trade of the Russian Federation and its growth rates during the years of liberalization was a significant reduction in the general economic and production potential. The industrial production of the Russian Federation in 2000 was 57% of the 1990 level, i.e. decreased by almost 2 times; agricultural production for the same period decreased by 1/3. Such a decline in industrial and agricultural production is unthinkable in peacetime.
Even during the period Patriotic War(1941-1945), when 31850 industrial enterprises, 65 thousand km of railway track, 4100 railway stations, the industrial output of the USSR decreased by only 10% (the level of industrial production in 1945 compared to 1940 was 90%)4. Despite the steady growth of industrial production in recent years, its level in 2007 was 82% compared to 1990. At present, Russia's share in world industrial production is slightly more than 2%. The decline in industrial production
In 1998, as can be seen from Table 3, in 1998, compared with 1990, consumer prices rose by almost 12,000 times. Although inflation has declined sharply in recent years, it has nevertheless remained significant (in
In 2007, compared to 1998, consumer prices increased by 3.8 times).
A very unfavorable indicator of the country's economic condition is degradation in the investment sector. Some improvement in the situation in 1999-2007. did not lead to fundamental changes: in 2007, the volume of capital investments was 55% of the 1990 level (almost 2-fold reduction) (see table 3).
As a result, the average age of production equipment in Russian industry, which was 10.8 years in 1990, is
2006 reached 19 years. Moreover, the share of equipment older than 20 years now reaches 40% (15% in 1990).
The increase in the service life of equipment has affected the increase in the depreciation of fixed capital in industry, which in recent years has amounted to about 50% and requires immediate modernization and replacement.
The aging of fixed assets in the Russian industry is not compensated by the introduction of new ones. If in 1990 the coefficient of renewal of fixed assets in industry reached 7%, then at present it is only 3%5.
There is no doubt that the significant physical and moral deterioration of machinery and equipment of the most active part of fixed assets predetermined a further decline in the competitiveness of engineering products manufactured by Russia, and, as a result, a reduction in its exports.
In general, at present, only about 15% of machine-building products mass-produced in the Russian Federation correspond to the world level.
An important reason for the strengthening of the fuel and energy orientation of Russian exports in the 1990s and the decrease in its efficiency was the hasty liberalization of foreign economic activity, without a scientifically substantiated concept and well-thought-out structural policy. In the early 1990s there was
effective control over the functioning of foreign economic relations did not give the expected results. According to some estimates, during the years of liberalization, from 200 to 300 billion dollars were exported abroad, which enrich Western banks, instead of working to restore the Russian economy, increase the country's export potential and improve the commodity structure of foreign trade.
Table 3
The main socio-economic indicators of Russia in 1990-2007.
(value indicators are given in current prices, percentages - in comparable prices)
19911 19981 20001 20021 20041 20051 20061 20071
Gross domestic product, billion rubles 1.4 2629.6 7305.6 10817.5 16778.8 21665.0 26882.0 32988.6
% to 19902 95.0 56.2 59.8 65.9 75.1 80.5 85.9 92.9
Industrial output, billion rubles 1.2 1707.0 4763.0 6868.0 11209.0 14785.4 15758.5 19615.7
% to 19902 94.8 46.0 57.1 62.1 71.1 73.9 76.8 81.6
Investments in fixed assets, billion rubles 0.2 407.1 1165.2 1762.0 2729.8 3431.0 4485.7 6418.7
% to 19902 84.5 20.9 25.9 29.3 36.5 40.1 45.6 55.2
Average monthly nominal wage, rub. 0.576 1051.5 2223.4 4360.3 6831.8 8530.0 10634.0 13518.0
by 1990 (times) 1.9 3470.3 7337.9 14390.4 22547.2 28151.8 35094.3 44611.0
Consumer prices by 1990 (times)2 2.603 11952.4 19610.7 26770.3 33490.7 37141.2 40743.9 45592.4
Average annual exchange rate of the Bank of Russia (rubles per US dollar) 9.71 28.12 31.35 28.81 28.37 27.19 25.6
Table notes:
1. In denominated rubles
2. Changes in indicators by 1990 calculated by the author Source: Yu.V. Piskulov, V.L. Seltsovsky - World economy and trade: Stat handbook. - M: 4th branch of the Military Publishing House, 1998. Foreign Economic Complex of Russia. - M: VNIKI 2006, Federal State Statistics Service; Economy of Russia: results and prospects. - M: Ministry of Economic Development and Trade of the Russian Federation, 2008, p. 7, 399-404.
the state monopoly of foreign trade was completely abolished. At the same time, the country has not developed an integrated approach to solving the problems of effective management of the foreign economic complex.
The state has practically removed itself from the regulation and control of the sphere of foreign economic activity. Was liquidated governmental support industrial export. An attempt at further creation
In addition to the noted internal factors that influenced the state of the commodity structure of the foreign trade of the Russian Federation, there are serious external factors. First of all, this is the break in integration and cooperation ties between industries and enterprises of Russia with the republics of the former USSR and former members of the CMEA, which led to the loss of markets for Russian machinery, equipment, and high-tech products in these countries. The exit from the markets of technical and economic cooperation of our traditional partners from developing countries led to the same negative consequences.
All this exacerbated the decline in production, especially in the machine-building industries in Russia.
In addition, with a significant increase in the openness of the Russian economy to the world market, Western countries failed to achieve the elimination of their widely used discriminatory measures in relation to a number of Russian export goods (quotas for supplies of steel products to the EU markets, rolled non-ferrous metals, enriched uranium, numerous anti-dumping procedures for supplies to the US and EU from Russia). In some cases, there is political pressure on buyers of modern Russian technologies: to India (under a contract for the supply of rocketry), to Iran (for the construction of a nuclear power plant), etc.
It is important to note that the problem of increasing exports of manufactured goods is not limited to engineering products. It's about also about increasing the degree of industrial processing of natural raw materials, primarily oil, gas, coal, ores of ferrous and non-ferrous metals, wood, textile and other types of raw materials.
The resources exported from Russia are in many cases devoid of pre-treatment, which significantly reduces the efficiency of our exports, since the prices on the world market for unprocessed raw materials are much lower compared to processed raw materials.
For example, our roundwood was exported in 2007 to foreign countries at a price of $84 per cubic meter, while boards were sold there at $351 per cubic meter, plywood - $502 per cubic meter, fibreboard - over $600. per cubic meter.
Now all countries of the world have practically stopped the export of roundwood, while in our country
In 2007 roundwood accounted for 34% of all exports of timber products ($4.1 billion). Moreover, this share has been steadily increasing in recent years. (In 1995 it was 27% - 1.1 billion dollars). A similar picture is observed for other natural resources.
The author calculated the ratio between the cost of exported raw materials and products of a deeper degree of their processing for four groups of goods that occupy the main place in Russian exports: fuel, ferrous metals, forest products, textiles. It showed that over the period (1991-2007) the share of goods of the above groups that were completely unprocessed and with a low degree of processing in the export of the Russian Federation increased from 68 to 73% in general, i.e. The tendency of a constant decrease in the share of processed (refined) products in the export of raw materials of the Russian Federation is clearly manifested, which indicates the low efficiency of our raw material exports.
Analysis of the structure of foreign trade of the Russian Federation in terms of the degree of processing of export goods can be carried out using the developed by the author statistical indicator- coefficient of physical conditions of commodity exchange (trade). This indicator is defined as the ratio between the average price per ton (unit) of imported goods and the price per ton (unit) of exported goods and shows how many tons (units) of goods a country exports per ton (unit) of imported goods. A ratio equal to or less than one is favorable. The value of this indicator lies in the fact that it shows the state of the material intensity of exports compared to imports, and, consequently, the degree of processing and quality of exported goods compared to imported ones.
The analysis of this indicator over a number of years showed that the physical conditions of trade were always unfavorable, the coefficient of physical terms of trade in former USSR in 1990 it was 4.3, i.e. behind
1 ton of imported goods was exported 4.3 tons6.
According to data for recent years, this indicator in Russia's trade is significantly
worsened, averaging 5.57 with non-CIS countries, which confirms that the commodity structure of Russia's foreign trade has become even more inefficient. In exchange for the export of mostly unprocessed raw materials, the country receives processed finished products.
In trade with individual countries, this indicator was even more unfavorable. For example, in Russia's foreign trade with the FRG, the coefficient reached 19, i.e. for 1 ton of goods imported from Germany, our country exports 19 tons to Germany.8 This indicates that, in fact, Russia's trade with Germany is reduced to a primitive form - raw raw materials in exchange for finished products and foodstuffs. (Currently, the share of raw materials and semi-finished products in Russia's exports to Germany reaches 93%). Our country exports material-intensive raw materials to Germany at a significantly lower price per ton compared to the price per ton of finished imported products from Germany.
These indicators, calculated for individual products, indicate an unfavorable situation in terms of their export efficiency: washing machines
5.9; oil products - 3.5; rolled ferrous metals - 2.7; cars- 2.15; trucks - 2.0, etc.
In the foreign trade of the Russian Federation, there are more than 200 goods with coefficients of the physical conditions of commodity exchange of more than one.
The above data also serve as convincing evidence that improving the structure of exports by improving the quality of exported goods, increasing the degree of their processing is a very urgent task for the development of Russian foreign trade.
At the same time, it is quite obvious that our country cannot count on a significant increase in exports if its structure continues to be based on raw materials and one-sided. At present, almost all the possibilities of extensive expansion of exports at the expense of fuel and raw materials have been exhausted. The need to diversify Russian exports is caused by three factors.
The first point is that our raw material resources are not unlimited for export. The share of exports in the production of key commodities (export quota) has steadily increased in the 1990s, and for most of the major commodities of Russian exports has reached its limit.
In 2007, crude oil was exported at a rate of 53% of its total production against 18% in 1990. It is almost impossible to export more. Almost half of all petroleum products produced in the country were exported in 2007 (in 1990, only 15%).
An increase in the production of raw materials in the country is not observed, on the contrary, there is only a decrease in it. The exploration industry is in serious decline. The production of geological equipment and machinery was reduced in 1991-2006. almost 10 times. Depreciation of fixed assets in this industry is almost 75%.
Due to a sharp decline in the volume of exploration work, explored reserves for most minerals, including oil, decreased by 17-20%.
According to foreign experts, the proven oil reserves at the current level of Russia's production will last only 19 years, gas - 83 years.
Moreover, the Russian oil industry has the highest wear and tear of equipment - almost 60%, while 50% in the industry as a whole. The coefficient of renewal of fixed assets is 1%, which is below the industry average. This inevitably leads to a decrease in oil recovery from the subsoil (oil recovery) and a decrease in its production. From 1970 to 2005, oil recovery decreased from 51% to 30% and is currently almost 2 times lower than the world level, although 14%9 of all investments in fixed assets, or $23 billion, are directed to the extraction of fuel and energy minerals ., which is clearly insufficient. According to the World Bank for Reconstruction and Development, the amount of investment for development is only oil industry Russia should be at least 50 billion dollars.
The reason for this state is that the oil industry now has no motivation for investment, the main idea of their interests is the supply of crude oil for export. The temporary oversufficiency of many oil companies with oil reserves allows them to “skim the cream”, selectively intensifying production from active reserves (up to 400
450 million tons per year), and therefore the production from "difficult" reserves is not great. Therefore, methods of increasing oil recovery are not in demand.
Thus, in our main industry, which provides free currency, real capital investments are clearly not enough. Investments in other primary industries are much lower.
It is clear that the export raw materials of our country are at the limit. If the economy of our country continues to develop, it will certainly require additional raw materials in order to use them in the country. Undoubtedly, without a significant increase in the production of raw materials, the raw material potential of the export industries of our country will inevitably decrease.
This circumstance is already reflected, for example, in gas, there are difficulties in the country - some power plants are switching to coal, which is by no means unfavorable for the economy. Since it is known that gas is a cheaper source than coal, in accordance with this, the cost of electricity produced on gas is cheaper than on coal. If we switch to coal in the production of electricity, this will lead to its rise in price, which will affect the situation in the country and the costs in other sectors of the economy.
Currently, 70% of the mineral fertilizers produced in the country are exported, thereby undermining the production base of agriculture. The amount of fertilizers in our country is 10% of the minimum requirement. On the vast territory of Russia, potash fertilizers are consumed 1.5 times less than in Belarus. According to experts, Agriculture annually loses millions of tons of grain due to an acute shortage of mineral fertilizers. Moreover, this situation has persisted for more than fifteen years. This means that it will take no less time to restore land fertility.
The development of export-oriented sectors of the economy requires the use of significant amounts of ferrous and non-ferrous metals. However, at present, from 60 to 80% of copper, nickel, aluminum, zinc, gold, platinum, and uranium produced in the country are exported from the country. This leads to a tightening long years development of its own export-oriented industries and industries, deprives the prospects for structural transformations in the economy and makes it even more dependent on the world market.
The second point that points to the need to diversify our exports is the change in the situation in the external commodity markets. The Western European oil market - the main market for Russian oil exports - is quite saturated, in particular, due to the growth of oil production in the North Sea. In addition, Western countries are pursuing a policy of energy conservation, and energy consumption per unit of GDP in these countries is constantly decreasing. It is quite clear that in this regard there is no reason to expect an increase in supplies of Russian oil and oil products.
As for metals, their consumption in the world is growing very limited, and Russian metal exporters face serious competition in the world markets. Significant difficulties in recent years in the export of products have also chemical industry, whose main export commodities are mineral fertilizers.
And, finally, the third point is that the orientation of our country exclusively to the export of raw materials cannot be strategically correct for us, because all these goods are extremely unstable in terms of the influence of the world situation on them. Commodity prices are highly volatile and subject to fluctuations under the influence of a variety of factors. Our country already faced this in 1998, when the prices for oil and oil products fell sharply. This circumstance, as well as the fall in prices for other raw materials, led to a reduction in exports in 1998 compared to 1997 by 16%. As a result of a sharp drop in prices, not only did the problems of foreign trade worsen, but also the revenues of the state budget of our country decreased, which was one of the important reasons for the monetary and financial crisis in Russia that erupted in August 1998.
In 2000, world oil prices, under the influence of a number of factors, reached a fairly high level and increased, in comparison with 1998, by 3 times. Over the past years, they have increased by more than 4 times and in mid-July 2008 were at an unprecedented high level, which had a positive effect on the economy of our country. It is clear that this price level could not be maintained for long. After July
2008 the market is in a fever. By the middle of October
In 2008, oil prices fell by more than 2 times against the peak figures in July, and by mid-November - by 3 times. These figures indicate that our country is at a critical level.
In addition, as already noted, an increase in the degree of processing of raw materials, an increase in the export of finished products on this basis, significantly increases the economic efficiency of foreign trade.
Based on the foregoing, the urgent task is to diversify our exports and develop export-oriented industries aimed at increasing the industrial processing of raw materials and, above all, engineering products.
Recently, various proposals have been put forward in Russia to overcome the current situation in Russian exports. Some of them are conceptual in nature, some are aimed at solving specific problems. This problem must be approached comprehensively, and any practical steps must be combined with the general foreign economic strategy of the state and developed on its basis. But there is no concrete realizable foreign economic strategy in our country. A good example in this area is China, where there is a clear general economic development program for several decades to come. Or Japan, where a whole export support system has been created; this is expressed, for example, in concessional lending to participants in foreign economic activity, in the creation of a unified statistical base important for foreign trade participants information, which, of course, facilitates their work.
In general, the task of improving the commodity structure of exports seems to be extremely difficult, in our opinion, it is necessary to solve this problem of improving the structure of exports in the following areas.
1. Effective development of exports and improvement of its commodity structure is impossible without state support. This support is provided to exporters in foreign countries. In Germany, for example, the state allocates more than $10 billion a year to support exports. In our country, in accordance with the Federal Export Development Program approved by the Government of the Russian Federation on February 8, 1996 and in force for the period up to 2005, it is planned to allocate funds for these purposes in the amount of 0.3-0.35% of gross domestic product per year. In terms of the official exchange rate of the ruble against the dollar, this averaged only about $1 billion a year. Unfortunately, even this amount was not allocated. It should be noted that the Law on State Regulation of Foreign Trade Activities contained a provision on the annual development of a program for the development of foreign trade activities, including the section “Measures to stimulate industrial production of exports”. Such programs were developed until 1998, after which they were simply forgotten.
The Concept of Long-Term Socio-Economic Development of the Russian Federation provides for a number of areas for export support. However, no mechanisms have been created to support exports and attract foreign investment, for which financial, organizational and human resources should be allocated.
The measures of state support for export should be: the creation of financial and industrial groups, the establishment of tax and credit benefits for exporters, the guarantee of state loans and risk insurance, the improvement of information and consultations for exporters (it is in the weakness and even the absence of state information and consulting services that the root of many of our problems) , marketing and technical assistance, improvement of transport tariffs.
One of the most important measures of state support for exports is to increase investment in the economy and, above all, in export-oriented industries. However, all these measures are applied insufficiently due to the lack of funds allocated by the state to support exports.
As for the sources of financing, our country once placed great hopes on attracting foreign investment.
tition, considering them as an important factor in the creation new technology in industry, development of export-oriented industries. However, these hopes were not justified.
At present, in terms of the volume of attracted foreign capital and especially foreign direct investment, the Russian Federation occupies a small share in international investment cooperation - 0.5% of the total global flow of foreign direct investment. Although over the past five years, foreign direct investment in the Russian economy has increased significantly and amounted to 13 billion dollars in 2005, this amount is clearly insufficient. For comparison, we note that the inflow of direct investment per year to the USA is 10 times, to the UK 7 times, to China almost 6 times more than to Russia (according to 2004 data). In 2006-2007 direct investments in the Russian economy increased by more than 3 times compared to 2005. However, over 8 months of 2008 they decreased by more than 2 times and continued to decrease in 2008 due to the global economic crisis.
The reason for the low attractiveness of Russia as an importer of foreign capital is, first of all, the instability of legislation in relation to a foreign investor.
In addition, the high level of taxes and transport tariffs has a negative impact on foreign investors.
It should also be noted that after the liquidation of the Russian Agency for International Cooperation and Development - RAMSIR, there was no single body left in the country that would be entrusted with the implementation of a unified state strategy in the field of attracting foreign capital. Therefore, the creation of such a body in the country, according to the author, is essential to intensify work to attract foreign investment in the economy of our country.
The slow growth of the country's economic development after a significant decline in production in 1991-1998, as well as the high level of corruption in business, also significantly affect the attractiveness of investments in Russia.
In this regard, it is necessary to increase the participation of the state in creating a more favorable investment climate.
Thus, targeted state support for the production and promotion of competitive finished products for export, the creation of a favorable climate for foreign investment should become important. strategic direction not only foreign economic, but also economic policy the country as a whole.
2. Of particular relevance is the increasing importance of the state in the development and implementation of foreign economic relations. It is advisable to increase the participation of the state through more efficient and effective use of tariff and non-tariff methods in regulating the foreign economic relations of our country.
In our opinion, one of the ways to prevent the export of unprocessed raw materials from Russia could be the establishment of increased export duties on its export. However, until 2008 there was no such differentiation in setting export duties depending on the degree of processing of goods. Unprocessed timber was exported in 2003 with an export duty of 6.5% of its value, cellulose - 10%, crude oil and oil products had the same export duty - $ 34 per 1 ton.
In 2007, the export duty was 10% of the cost for both processed wood and paper and cardboard; there was no differentiation in setting export duties for oil and oil products. At the end of 2007, the export customs tariff rates were differentiated (tariff escalation) for a number of goods depending on the degree of their processing. However, this differentiation is not yet sufficiently effective. At the same time, the Concept of long-term socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation, among the measures for the application of customs tariff regulation instruments, does not indicate the need for differentiation (escalation) of export customs tariff rates depending on the degree of processing of goods, although these measures are especially are important for improving the efficiency of Russian exports and have already begun to be implemented.
It is also necessary to further strengthen foreign exchange control in foreign trade. Due to the fact that huge losses of foreign exchange
revenues by our country due to the underestimation of contract prices compared to world prices (20 billion dollars a year at present) cause an urgent need to resume the state examination of contract prices, which was canceled by the Government in 1996.10
It should also be noted that several hundred thousand firms and companies are currently involved in the field of foreign economic relations, many of which do not have qualified personnel. In our opinion, the introduction of a special licensing system for participants in foreign economic relations (as in banking and insurance) would make it possible to strengthen state control and increase the efficiency of foreign economic relations.
A serious problem of increasing the role of our state in the implementation of foreign economic relations, posed recently by some economists, is the consideration of the question of returning to the state monopoly of foreign trade. An informed decision on this issue is of great importance. Over the past 15 years (1993-2007) the positive balance trade balance our country has exceeded a trillion dollars, incl. over the past 4 years, 565 billion dollars. As a result of favorable terms of trade due to the growth of world prices for fuel and raw materials, our country received for 1999-
2007 a huge amount - 206.3 billion dollars, which significantly exceeds similar incomes during the favorable periods of Soviet trade. At the same time, due to the absence of a state monopoly of foreign trade, these colossal incomes from foreign trade are only partially (due to taxes and duties) received by the state. The introduction of a monopoly of foreign trade in our country, at least for goods constituting Natural resources, primarily for oil and gas, would undoubtedly be an important source of financial resources, to boost the Russian economy. The introduction of a foreign trade monopoly does not contradict our existing legislation. So, in the law on state regulation of foreign trade activity there is a special article, which says that the state can introduce a state monopoly on the export of certain goods.
3. For the successful development of Russian exports, it is necessary to further improve the legal framework of the international
significant cooperation in order to ensure access of Russian goods to foreign markets, the abolition of many discriminatory restrictions on trade by foreign partners. Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization is gaining priority in this matter. However, the main task in the negotiations on Russia's accession to the WTO is terms of membership acceptable to Russia.
4. On the basis of the existing economic potential, it is possible to improve the structure of exports. In the last years of the existence of the USSR, the competitiveness of the products of a number of leading engineering industries has increased: the aerospace complex, power engineering, including nuclear, and some others. Supplied in large quantities Russian cars, machine tools, complete equipment, road construction equipment, which shows the existing prerequisites for the development of exports of engineering products.
The Soviet Union provided assistance in the construction of a large number of enterprises in China, Eastern European and some developing countries. Now these enterprises are in need of modernization, for which the former Russian suppliers are involved. This is also an opportunity to increase exports, including engineering.
In the Russian military-industrial complex a powerful scientific and technical potential is still concentrated, using the most modern technologies in production, the products of which are widely recognized in the world market. In this regard, on this basis, the possibilities of creating competitive science-intensive products are laid. civil purpose. Of course, maintaining a high scientific and technical level of military-industrial complex production and financing programs for its conversion also requires large investments.
Russia has significant reserves in increasing the export of military-technical products to the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. This is due to the urgent need of the armies of these countries to modernize and replenish the Soviet and Russian military equipment in their arsenal. A number of Central and Eastern European countries have joined NATO. However, retrofitting them
armed forces with NATO military equipment will be extremely expensive. Since their rearmament will take at least the next ten years, and if Russia's relations with NATO develop constructively, Russia has the opportunity to supply its military-technical products to these countries within the specified period.
At present, there are great opportunities to significantly increase the economic efficiency of exports and the volume of foreign exchange earnings based on available export resources by increasing the degree of processing of exported raw materials and increasing the share of semi-finished and finished products in exports: concentrates, high-quality rolled products, pipes and pellets instead of ores, cast iron, ferroalloys , oil products and petrochemical products instead of crude oil; plywood, pulp, paper, furniture instead of roundwood and sawn timber, clothing and linen instead of textile raw materials and fabrics, etc.
It is also impossible not to note such an important element of the export potential as technical service, which requires constant attention. Many of our machine-building enterprises give priority to the production of finished machines and care little about the production of spare parts. The lack of timely deliveries of spare parts in a number of cases does not make it possible to meet the requirements of buyers, which is a brake on the development of Russian exports of engineering products.
In this regard, an increase in the share of components and spare parts in the trade of the Russian Federation in machinery and equipment based on the expansion of their production, improvement Maintenance sold machinery products is an important area for expanding its exports.
Obviously, the state of the country's foreign trade largely depends on the level of development of production. Therefore, the basis for successfully solving the problems of improving the export structure of the Russian Federation is the rise of the country's economy, the growth of its industrial and scientific potential and
overcoming the colossal decline in production in 1991-1998.
It is also obvious that one of the most important conditions for the rise of the economy of our country, its scientific and industrial potential is an increase in investment in the national economy. According to some estimates, the required amount of capital investment to boost the country's economy is $140 billion a year. Of course, this amount of investment is significant. But, even just using the reserves to improve the efficiency of our country's foreign economic activity, which were discussed above, you can get the necessary amount for investment in the national economy. Finding these reserves is especially important in the context of the financial and economic crisis in the country.
Notes:
1 Calculated according to: International Trade Statistics WTO, 2007, p. : 209, 223, 225, 227.
4 National economy USSR 1922 -1982: Anniversary Statistical Yearbook. - M.: Finance and statistics, 1982. - S. 55-58.
5 Russian Statistical Yearbook. 2001-2007.
6 Calculated based on materials from the Ministry of Foreign Economic Relations of the USSR.
7 Calculated according to customs statistics.
8 Calculated according to Auss enhandel. Reihe 1. Zussamenfassende Ubersichten fur den Aussenhandel. stat. Bundesamt, Wiesbaden, 2005.
9 Calculated according to: Russian Statistical Yearbook, 2007
10 Calculated according to the methodology given in the monograph: V.L. Seltsovsky. Economic and statistical methods of foreign trade analysis - M.: Finance and statistics, 2004, ss. 236237, 242-247.
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