The country's trade balance is negative if. Trade balance and its characteristics

Foreign trade balance of the country- the ratio of the value of exports and imports of goods for a certain period of time. Foreign trade balance includes goods transactions actually paid for and carried out on credit. The foreign trade balance is compiled for individual countries and for groups of states.

The trade balance has a balance. trade balance- This annual rate(possible quarterly and monthly) information on foreign trade transactions of the country. If the trade balance has a positive balance, this means that in monetary terms (commodity volume is converted into money), more goods were sent abroad (exports) than received from other countries (imports). If the balance is negative, then the import of goods prevails over the export. A positive trade balance indicates the demand for a country's goods for international market, as well as the fact that the country does not consume everything that it produces. A negative trade balance indicates that a country, in addition to its own goods, also consumes foreign goods. Negative trade balances in countries such as the US and the UK help contain inflation and maintain high level life due to the transfer of labor-intensive industries outside the state.

In underdeveloped countries, a negative trade balance indicates the non-competitiveness of the export sectors of the economy, which often leads to devaluation (depreciation) of the money of such countries due to the fact that they cannot pay for import purchases. Countries such as the US and the UK have capital-intensive and high-tech industries that attract significant amounts of capital from around the world in the form of portfolio or direct investment. However, due to the lack of competitiveness of export industries, these countries are forced to cover the bulk of the trade deficit by issuing private and government debt instruments.

Merchandise Trade Deficit (Balance) - the balance of trade or otherwise the balance of trade in goods, for the United States over the past many years it has been a deficit, therefore, the reduction of Trade Deficit is often stipulated immediately. The Commodity Trade Report details monthly exports and imports of goods to the US. This is a very important indicator that characterizes both the net movement of goods and the monetary and foreign trade policy of the state. The indicator is measured as the difference between exports and imports in absolute terms in billion dollars: Merchandise Trade Deficit (USD bln.) = Export - Import.

Food (Food)

Raw materials & industrial supplies (Raw materials and industrial supplies) +

Consumer goods (Consumer goods) +

Autos (cars) +

Capital goods (Means of production) +

Other merchandise (Other products).

Foods and Feeds+

Industrial Supplies+

Capital Goods (Means of Production)+

Ex Autos (Car export)+

Autos and Parts+

Consumer Goods+

Other Merchandise (Other Goods).

However, official reports and subsequent analysis may highlight particularly important components, for example:

Total Deficit (general deficit)

Ex Petroleum (gasoline export)

Ex Autos (car export)

2) By country.

Relationship with other indicators. One of the few indicators that has not an indirect, but a direct impact on the exchange rate, since it reflects the movement of funds between countries for the goods and services provided. However, the paradox is that the reaction of the exchange rate to this report is minimal due to technical and structural reasons, namely: the report is too late from the time when the real movement of values ​​took place, in addition, the movement of capital, due to trade relations, is somewhat times less than the movement of capital associated with the work of credit and stock markets, and the cycles of these two flows, as a rule, do not coincide. With an increase in the trade deficit, the demand for foreign currency increases and the local currency exchange rate falls. The balance of trade is influenced by domestic demand indicators, as they determine the dynamics of imports, as well as the exchange rate itself, which adjusts the nominal value of import receipts in local currency.

Features of the indicator behavior. For foreign exchange markets, the total balance is key indicator. At the beginning, exports are analyzed, because. it has a direct impact on the value of growth in the economy. Imports reflect the demand for goods in the US. The increase in imports reflects the formation of stocks, which may indicate a possible subsequent slow increase in sales. In the future, specific product groups are analyzed. There are several special exports and imports that can significantly affect the trade balance. For example, oil in terms of imports (especially the increase in its price) and aviation in terms of exports. Depending on product categories, the growing deficit created by a small drop in exports could push fixed income markets in either direction. Unlike other sectors of the economy, there is no consistent relationship between the trade balance and the phases of the business cycle.

The balance of trade is a certain part of the payment, which characterizes the trade relations of the state with other countries. As its components there are import and export of goods. Thus, the balance of trade is the difference between the volumes of imports and exports of various goods. If there is a significant predominance of exports over imports, then this indicates that a sufficiently large inflow of foreign currency is carried out into the country, as a result of which the national currency rate begins to increase. Similarly, if the trade balance shows that there is too much import over export, then this indicates that the goods of this country have a rather low competitiveness abroad. This information is published every month, but the currency market often reacts poorly to this information.

What it is?

As mentioned above, the country's trade balance is the ratio of the value of imports, as well as exports of certain products for a certain period of time. The foreign trade balance, along with the actually paid contracts, also includes those transactions that were carried out on credit. With actually paid contracts, the foreign trade balance is a separate element of the country's balance of payments.

What does it show?

Russia's trade balance is one of the most important indicators reflecting how effectively a country participates in international trade, as a result of which it is a separate part of the balance of payments. This balance is the ratio between the sum of the prices of goods that were exported abroad, as well as the sum of the cost of products that were imported into the country. Initially, a detailed analysis of exports is carried out for the reason that it directly affects how much the economy grows.

Import, in turn, determines the demand for goods directly within the country, and if imports grow, then in this case, the formation of stocks is determined, which may indicate a possible further slow growth in sales. The trade balance formula can show different results, as they are highly dependent on the exchange rate, which adjusts the nominal amount of import receipts in the national currency.

Why is it needed?

In the vast majority of cases, the balance of trade formula is calculated for the year and includes the value of all goods that were purchased or sold on an instant payment basis, supplied on credit or even completely free of charge in the form of government assistance or a gift. At the same time, it is worth noting that, minus the latest indicators, the active trade balance is entered directly into the balance of payments.

The active part of this balance reflects the export of products that were produced, mined or grown in the country, as well as all kinds of goods that were previously imported into the country from abroad and subsequently subjected to certain processing. The passive part includes the import of foreign products for the purpose of domestic consumption or processing with further export. The difference between the price of imports and exports is the trade balance. A positive trade balance is a situation in which the price of exports is greater than the price of imports, otherwise the balance is called a passive balance. If in the trade balance the passive and active parts are equal, then it is called "net balance".

How is it composed?

Compilation of the trade balance is carried out by authorized financial statistics, as well as foreign trade bodies of each individual country. At the same time, it should be noted that if the trade balance is considered commercial enterprise, then in this case it is determined by the department of relevant specialists.

These calculations are carried out in order to determine the foreign economic position of a company or country, to clarify the level of competitiveness own products, as well as the purchasing power of the national currency used. The technology for calculating the cost of imports and exports in different countries differs in its own characteristics, and therefore it is rather difficult to compare the corresponding indicators.

The UN Statistical Commission recommends that all countries use a single technology in relation to the system itself, as well as the accounting base price indicators in their own foreign trade. In particular, when forming the balance of trade, it is necessary to take into account the price of all imported goods, based on the FOB basis, that is, the price of the imported goods includes its price at the border or at various exit ports of the selling country, as well as all kinds of expenses associated with insurance or delivery of products to the border of the consumer country. At the same time, the price of the exported goods bears all the costs of the seller associated with the delivery of the goods to the exit port or to their own border, including all kinds of duties and other similar fees.

From what will be present trade balance, the economy depends in the most direct way. In this regard, in the overwhelming majority of cases, when compiling the trade balance, countries fully comply with the technology recommended by the UN Statistical Commission. Approximately 30 countries record the price of imports and exports based on FOB.

Trade balance of the capitalist countries

The balance sheet of the capitalist countries includes the spontaneous nature of economic development, the aggravation of the situation on the existing sales market, inflation, the currency crisis, and many other processes. uneven political and economic development capitalism is reflected in a change in the balance of power between several competitors, as well as in a significant aggravation of the trade war between countries or customs and economic groupings of various imperialist states.

In the current practice of the capitalist countries, such technologies for equalizing the trade balance as the introduction of customs duties, quantitative restrictions on the import of certain products, all kinds of credit and tax incentives, devaluation, revaluation, financing of exports from the budget, the introduction of a plurality of exchange rates, as well as a number of other methods.

How is it reflected?

If the whole world buys the export goods of a certain country, but at the same time, buyers in the domestic market also prefer to buy domestic goods, then in this case we can say that the economy of this country is in good condition. At the same time, the trade deficit shows that the goods of this state are not the most competitive, and its inhabitants must take certain actions in order to ensure the protection of their own standard of living.

However, such an analysis is fair if the change in the trade balance was caused by a decrease or increase in demand for the goods of this state, but it is worth noting the fact that many other reasons can actually influence this indicator. , including also a good investment climate, which generates an influx of investments into the country and, consequently, an increase in equipment purchases from abroad, which ultimately leads to a trade deficit, despite the fact that the state of the economy of this state is not getting worse.

Current account balance

The current account balance can be called the most informative, since it includes absolutely all asset flows, including official and private, that are associated with the movement of all kinds of services and goods. A positive current account balance indicates that the country's credit has higher rates compared to the debit in terms of the movement of services and goods, and also demonstrates the volume of obligations of non-residents in relation to residents.

In other words, if there is a positive balance, then this indicates that this country is a net investor relative to other states. At the same time, if there is a current account deficit, this indicates that this state eventually becomes a net debtor and must pay for additional net imports of products.

How important is he?

During the development of the economic school of the mercantilists, the equilibrium was established in accordance with the terms of the balance sheet on the account of current operations, while this balance did not take into account the movement of capital, as well as all kinds of changes that occurred in the gold and foreign exchange reserves of a particular country. Thus, main goal economic policy in this case it was to maximize the current account surplus in order to ensure the accumulation of gold in the country. Today, it is already obvious that such a statement is not without foundation, because it is the state of the active operations account that has a direct impact on the real income of the state, as well as the standard of living of people living in it.

Thus, in the process of integrating the active account into the current system National accounts, it can be determined that the occurrence of a deficit in this account indicates that the country's expenses significantly exceed its income, which cannot be financed in any other way than through the inflow of foreign borrowed capital for a long period.

Features of a closed economic system

In a closed economic system saving should have the same value as investment, while in an open economy these indicators may differ depending on the state of the current account. If there is a surplus of imports over exports, this implies that investment has a higher value than saving for the amount of the deficit, which cannot be present if there is no long-term foreign capital inflow to finance the deficit.

Possible risks

However, there is a risk of maintaining the current account deficit through long-term capital inflows for several reasons. First of all, this concerns the high liquidity of the instruments used to service this capital inflow. The country's economy is highly dependent on the state of world money and financial markets, which are extremely subject to various speculative price fluctuations.

Answers:

The foreign trade balance of a country is the ratio between the sum of the prices of goods exported by any country or a group of countries and the sum of the prices of goods imported by them over a certain period of time, for example, for a year, quarter, month. The foreign trade balance includes goods transactions actually paid for and carried out on credit. The foreign trade balance is compiled for individual countries and for groups of states. The trade balance has its balance. The trade balance is an annual (quarterly or monthly) indicator of the country's foreign trade transactions. If the trade balance has a positive balance, this means that in monetary terms (commodity volume is converted into money), more goods were sent abroad (exports) than received from other countries (imports). If the balance is negative, then the import of goods prevails over the export. A positive trade balance indicates the demand for the goods of a given country in the international market, as well as the fact that the country does not consume everything that it produces. A negative trade balance indicates that a country, in addition to its own goods, also consumes foreign goods.

The basis of the balance of payments is the balance of trade. The trade (foreign trade) balance characterizes the export and import of goods. The trade balance is positive if a country exports more goods and services than it imports from abroad. In this case, the trade balance has a surplus. If imports are greater than exports, then the trade balance is negative or in deficit. Therefore, changes in the current account balance are associated with changes in domestic output and employment.

The balance of trade is built on the basis of customs statistics, which takes into account the volumes of goods actually crossing the border, while the balance of payments takes into account payments and receipts during foreign trade turnover, which in time may not coincide with the movement of goods.

Foreign trade balance of the country- the ratio of the value of goods exported and imported during a certain period of time (for example, for one calendar year). The foreign trade balance includes goods transactions actually paid for and carried out on credit. The foreign trade balance is compiled for individual countries and for groups of states.

The trade balance has its balance. trade balance- this is the annual (quarterly or monthly) indicator of the country's foreign trade transactions. If the trade balance has a positive balance, this means that in monetary terms (commodity volume is converted into money), more goods were sent abroad (exports) than received from other countries (imports). If the balance is negative, then the import of goods prevails over the export. A positive trade balance indicates the demand for the goods of a given country in the international market, as well as the fact that the country does not consume everything that it produces. A negative trade balance indicates that a country, in addition to its own goods, also consumes foreign goods. A negative trade balance in countries such as the United States and Great Britain makes it possible to contain inflation and maintain a high standard of living by moving labor-intensive industries outside the state.

In the US, the trade deficit, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, in 2006 will amount to 836 billion dollars (due to the consumption of cheap Asian and Mexican goods, as well as raw materials). In Russia, a positive trade balance in 2006 (according to the Central Bank) will amount to more than 120 billion dollars (mainly due to the sale of energy resources and metals abroad). In underdeveloped countries, a negative trade balance indicates the non-competitiveness of the export sectors of the economy, which often leads to devaluation (depreciation) Money such countries due to the fact that they cannot pay for import purchases. Countries such as the US and the UK have capital-intensive and high-tech industries that attract significant amounts of capital from around the world in the form of portfolio or direct investment. However, due to the lack of competitiveness of export industries, these countries are forced to cover the bulk of the trade deficit by issuing private and government debt instruments.

The purpose of this article is to study theoretical aspects trade balance, its role, main articles and factors influencing it. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to solve the following tasks: - consider the concept and essence of the trade balance; - to study its main features.

• Improving the formation of a capital repair fund in apartment buildings
• Legal regulation of the issues of assessing the quality of public (municipal) services provided in Russia

The relevance of this topic cannot be overstated, because the trade balance is a mirror image of the economic state of the country. modern conditions difficult to predict or actively participate in the international monetary and financial system, if you do not take into account the role of the country's trade balance.

The purpose of this article is to study the theoretical aspects of the trade balance, its role, main items and factors influencing it.

To achieve this goal, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:

• consider the concept and essence of the trade balance;
• explore its main features

Trade balance(Trade Balance, TB) - part of the balance of payments that characterizes the country's trade relations with other states. Its components are export and import of goods. The balance of trade is the difference between the sum of exports and the sum of imports of a country's goods. The trade balance characterizes, first of all, the competitiveness of the country's goods abroad. The predominance of exports over imports (a positive trade balance) indicates that there is an influx of foreign currency into the country, and the national currency is rising. Conversely, the predominance of imports over exports (a negative balance or trade deficit) means a low competitiveness of the country's goods abroad. (1, p.3)

The origin of the concept of "balance of payments", according to its modern understanding, can be considered the emergence of the term "balance of trade". It was first used by Edward Misselden in the treatise The Circle of Trade (1623) where the first calculations of the trade balance for England for 1621 are made.

The concept of "balance of trade" is further developed in the works of Thomas Mann. In the book "The Wealth of England in Foreign Trade" (1664), the author introduces the concept of "general balance of trade." T. Mann notes that deficits in foreign trade with some countries can be offset by a positive balance with other states, so the assessment of foreign trade activity should be carried out on the basis of the overall trade balance.

The term " payment balance” was first used by the English economist, one of the largest representatives of late mercantilism (from Italian mercante - merchant, merchant), the first school of bourgeois political economy) James Stuart (1712-80). In his Study on the Principles of Political Economy (1767), he was the first to point out and discuss in detail the relationship between foreign trade and the movement of capital. D. Stewart defines the balance of payments as an independent concept, which consists of (7, p. 57):

1. Expenses of citizens abroad.
2. Debt payments, principal and interest to foreigners.
3. Providing loans to other countries.

The role of the trade balance in the Russian economy

In Russia, a positive trade balance has been observed throughout the history of the existence of statistics. The attitude to a country's trade surplus or deficit depends on a number of factors that determine the position of this country in the world economy, the characteristics of business relations with partners, characteristics and specific gravity main items of the trade balance, etc.

Thus, the attitude to the positive trade balance in Russia is rather contradictory. Despite the growing gap between exports over imports, which forms a positive trade balance, the qualitative characteristics of this surplus cannot but cause concern for economists for at least a decade.

The main source of the surplus and the main export item are natural resources, which are actively exported from Russia. And the specific growth of exports natural resources shows the dynamics of growth throughout the time of statistical observation. As we can see, the quantitative growth of exports has been observed throughout the last decade. The fall in exports and imports of goods in monetary terms in 2009 was due to the active phase of the global financial and economic crisis, but within 2 years the fall was won back, and trade indicators in 2011 reached record levels. It is also worth paying attention to the fact that, as such, the export of natural resources did not fall quantitatively during the crisis. (Retelling of source 2, p. 15)

Conclusion

In conclusion, it should be noted that the trade balance is one of the main tools for macroeconomic analysis and forecasting.

Balance of trade - the ratio between the sum of the prices of goods exported by any country, or a group of countries, and the sum of the prices of goods imported by them for a certain period of time, for example, for a year, quarter, month. In other words, the balance of trade is the export and import of a country for a certain period or date.

If the value of the export of goods of a given country exceeds the value of their import, then the trade balance is active. If the value of imports exceeds the value of exports, then such a trade balance is passive. If the cost of export and import coincides, a net balance is formed. A country with a passive trade balance must cover the deficit by spending various balance of payments receipts, in particular income from transportation on its means of transport or through its territory of foreign goods, interest and dividends from investments abroad, inflow of foreign capital, foreign loans, use of the reserve foreign currencies and the export of gold. The trade surplus largely characterizes the favorable economic situation of a given country, is one of the important indicators of the degree of dependence of its economy on foreign markets, from the state of the conjuncture, international competition, as well as political dependence on other states.

Balance of payments data reflect how trade with other countries developed during the reporting period, which directly affects the level of production, employment and consumption, how much income was received from non-residents and how much was paid to them. These data make it possible to trace the form in which foreign investment was attracted, whether the country's external debt was repaid in a timely manner or there were delays and its restructuring, as well as how residents invested in the economy of other countries, how the Central Bank eliminated payment imbalances by increasing or decreasing the amount their foreign currency reserves.

The balance of payments is actively used to determine fiscal and monetary policy, protectionist measures, as well as in making decisions on the regulation of domestic foreign exchange market and the exchange rate. Based on the results of the balance of payments, further decisions are made in the field of the country's economic policy.

A distinctive feature of Russia from other countries with a transitive economy is its huge resource potential, which allows it to maintain an active current account balance, mainly due to a positive trade balance.

For Russia, the financing of the capital account deficit of the balance of payments is more relevant than the current account deficit. However, this cannot be called a plus for the economy, since the current account surplus is a reflection of Russia's low investment attractiveness.

Bibliography

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