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Alternative theories of international trade. Theory of competitive advantages Rybchinsky's theorem alternative theories of international trade

to alternative theories. international trade relate:

Group 1 - theories that develop the principles of classical theories, extending them to a greater number of goods, countries and factors of production, and showing that despite the increase in the number of variables, the main postulates of the theory remain valid:

The theory of specific factors of production (the Samuelson-Jones theorem);

The theory of the influence of changes in prices for goods on the prices of factors of production (the Stolper-Samuelson theorem);

The theory of the influence of the growth of production factors on the growth of production (Rybchinsky's theorem);

Group 2 - theories that, without questioning the validity of classical theories as a whole, study certain aspects of international trade that are not covered by them either due to assumptions and abstractions deliberately made by the authors, or due to shortcomings of the theories themselves:

Crossing demand theory (Linder);

3rd group - latest theories, who argue that classical theories do not explain modern international trade and need to be replaced by new theories:

Scale effect theory (Paul Krugman, K. Lancaster);

The theory of intra-industry trade (Balassa);

Theory life cycle goods (Vernon);

Technology Gap Theory (Pozner);

Theory competitive advantage.

The theory of specific factors of production- international trade is based on differences in the relative prices of goods that arise due to the different provision of countries with specific factors of production, with factors specific to the export sector developing, and factors specific to the sector competing with imports are declining.

Assumptions: a country produces two goods: good 1 and good 2. Three factors of production are used: labor, capital, land. Labor is a mobile factor of production, capital and land are specific. For the production of good 1, labor and capital are used, for the production of good 2, labor and land are used.

specific factor- a factor of production that is characteristic only for a given industry and is not able to move between industries.

Mobile factor A factor of production that moves freely between industries.

Table 3.2 - Specific and mobile factors of production

Samuelson-Jones theorem- as a result of trade, the income of the owners of a factor specific to export industries increases, and the income of the owners of a factor specific to industries that compete with imports decreases.

Theory of the influence of changes in commodity prices on the prices of factors of production(Stolper-Samuelson theorem) - international trade leads to an increase in the price of a factor relatively more intensively used for the production of a good whose price is rising, and a decrease in the price of a factor relatively more intensively used for a good whose price is falling.

The theory of the influence of the growth of factors of production on the growth of production(Rybchinsky's theorem)- an increasing supply of one of the factors of production leads to a disproportionately greater percentage increase in production and income of the industry for which this factor is used relatively more intensively, and to a decrease in production and income in the industry in which this factor is used relatively less intensively.

The implications of Rybchinsky's theorem for international trade are as follows. In accordance with the Heckscher-Ohlin factor ratio theory, a country exports goods produced with the help of the factor with which it is relatively better provided. According to Comrade Rybchinsky, the expansion of production for export with the help of a relatively surplus factor will lead to a drop in production in other industries for which this factor is not relatively surplus. In these sectors, the demand for imported goods. On the contrary, the expansion of a relatively insufficient factor will lead to an increase in production in import-substituting industries and reduce the need for imports. Rybchinsky's theorem is a more general case of the "Dutch disease" and indicates that the active expansion of production and exports in some industries inevitably leads to stagnation or even a drop in production and the need for imports in other industries. In some cases, such a fall can be ruinous, that is, exceed the benefits of expanding production and export growth, and even lead to deindustrialization.

Technology Gap Theory (Posner's theorem, 1961) is a firm that introduces new product, can enjoy its monopoly on exports until imitators appear on the market with a similar product.

Trade between countries can be driven by technological changes occurring in one industry in one of the trading countries. This country is getting comparative advantage: New technology allows the production of goods at low cost. If created New Product, then the innovator firm has a quasi-monopoly for a certain time, i.e. earns additional profit.

As a result of technical innovations, a technological gap has formed between countries. This gap will be gradually bridged as other countries will begin to copy the innovation of the innovator country. Posner, in order to explain the constantly existing international trade, introduces the concept of a “flow of innovations”, which over time arises in different industries and different countries Oh.

Both trading countries benefit from the innovation. As it spreads new technology less developed country continues to win, and the more developed country loses its advantages. Thus, international trade exists even with the same endowment of countries with factors of production.

Product Life Cycle Theory (Vernon) explains the development of world trade finished products based on the stages of its life in the market: emergence, demand growth, saturation and decline.

The product life cycle covers 4 stages:

1. Implementation. At this stage, a new product is developed in response to an emerging need within the country. Production is small-scale, requires highly skilled workers and is concentrated in the country of innovation. The manufacturer occupies an almost monopoly position. Only a small part of the product goes to the foreign market.

2.Growth. Demand for the product is growing, its production is expanding and spreading to other developed countries. The product becomes standardized. Competition is growing, exports are expanding.

3. Maturity. This stage is characterized by large-scale production, the competition is dominated by price factor. The country of innovation no longer has competitive advantages. Production is moving to developing countries where labor is cheaper.

4. Decline. In developed countries, production is decreasing, sales markets are concentrated in developing countries. The country of innovation becomes a net importer.

Theory of Competitive Advantage- A country achieves international success in a particular industry due to the interaction of competitive advantages in four national determinants (country properties): factor conditions, demand conditions, related and service industries, firm strategy, its structure and competition.

Crossing demand theory (Staffan Linder, 1961)- since consumers in countries with approximately the same income level have approximately similar tastes, it is easier for each country to export those goods in the production and trade of which in the domestic market has accumulated a lot of experience.

Scale effect theory (Paul Krugman, K. Lancaster) – an alternative explanation for international trade is based on economies of scale. The essence of the effect lies in the fact that with a certain technology and organization of production, long-term average costs decrease as the volume of output increases, i.e. economies of scale arise.

According to this theory, many countries are provided with the main factors of production in similar proportions, and therefore it will be profitable for them to trade among themselves if they specialize in industries that are characterized by the presence of the effect mass production. Specialization allows you to expand production volumes, reduce costs, price. In order for economies of scale to be realized, a capacious market is needed, i.e. world.

economies of scale- the development of production, in which the growth in the cost of factors per unit leads to an increase in production by more than one unit, due to external and internal structural changes.

External economies of scale - reduction in unit costs within the firm as a result of an increase in the scale of production in the industry as a whole.

Internal economies of scale - the reduction in unit costs within the firm as a result of an increase in the scale of its production.

Significant changes taking place in the system of the world economy and international relations in the post-war period, led to the emergence of a number of factors that do not always fit into the classical theory of comparative advantage. These new factors do not so much reject the classical theory as to some extent reflect the new realities of international economic relations. This encourages both further development already existing theories, and to the development of alternative theoretical concepts. Among such qualitative shifts, one should first of all note the transformation technical progress into a dominant factor in world trade, an ever-increasing specific gravity in trade of counter deliveries of similar industrial goods produced in countries with approximately the same supply of factors of production, a sharp increase in the share of world trade attributable to intra-company trade.

Such theories, which were developed in the middle of the 20th century on the basis of scientific and technological revolution, are called neotechnological (or alternative). The neotechnological school associates the main advantages with the monopoly position of the firm (country) - the innovator. Hence the new optimal strategy for individual firms: to produce not what is relatively cheaper, but what everyone or many people need, but which no one else can produce yet.

The attitude towards the state has also changed: neo-technological economists believe that the state can and should support the production of high-tech export goods and not interfere with the curtailment of other obsolete industries. Neotechnological theories include:

1. the theory of technological gap M. Pozner (1961);

2. Camp's theory of scale effect (1964)

3. R. Vernon's theory of product life cycle (1966);

4. theory of intra-industry trade B. Balassa (1967);

5. M. Porter's theory of competitive advantage of the nation (1986).

Technological gap theory. In 1961 English economist M. Posner published a work in which he considered as the reason for trade between countries technical changes, arising from the branches of the countries trading among themselves. He considered his model, which can be called the technology gap theory, to be a special case of the Heckscher-Ohlin model.

In his opinion, if technical innovations initially appear in one country, then it acquires a comparative advantage in the corresponding industry, producing goods at a lower cost. Starting the production of a new product, for a certain time the country has, according to the definition of M. Posner, a quasi-monopoly that allows it to receive additional profit, which predetermines its interest in expanding exports.

Deliveries of this product from the country - its creator to the world market will continue until other countries overcome technological gap in this industry. After bridging the gap, from Posner's point of view, there is no reason for the development of trade in this product. To explain the causes of trade, he introduces the concept of a "stream of innovation" that occurs in different countries and industries. Other economists, such as R. Vernon, D. Huffbauer, R. Findley, E. Mansfield, who developed the technological gap model, although they emphasized the temporary nature of the technological advantage of one country, believed that the Posner model allows us to show that both trading countries benefit from innovation in one technologically advanced country.

If the country in which the innovation originated receives additional profit in the process of trade, which can be called technological rent, then the buyer country saves by using more advanced products and not spending money on its development. It is naturally easier and cheaper to master the production of already known products than to create them. As technology spreads, the importing country continues to benefit, while the innovating country gradually loses its advantages.

Undoubtedly, the theory of the technological gap is an essential addition to the theory of factors of production, making it possible to explain the reasons for the development of trade between countries equally endowed with factors of production, including between industrialized countries. Although it does not provide a full explanation of trade between these countries, since even in the case of equalization of the technological level in the industries of different countries, the possibility remains efficient trading between them.

The theory of scale effect. In the early 80s. P. Krugman, E Lancaster, R. Drize, G. Hafbauer and some other economists proposed an alternative to the classical explanation of international trade, based on the so-called scale effect. The essence of this well-known effect from microeconomic theory is that that with a certain technology and organization of production, long-term average costs decrease as the volume of output increases, i.e. economies of scale arise.

The reasons for the decrease in the cost of a unit of goods as the scale of production increases:

- growth of specialization-Each employee can focus on one production function to bring its implementation to perfection, while using more advanced machines and equipment;

- indivisibility of production - with an increase in the scale of output, the size of service units not directly involved in production (administrative apparatus, accounting, etc.) grows relatively slowly than the scale of production itself;

- technological economy - the cost of creating a new quality of a product is usually less than the cost resulting from its increase. For example, the cost of creating a more powerful machine is 2/3 of each unit of increase in its power.

According to the point of view of the authors of this theory, many countries (in particular, industrialized ones) are provided with the main factors of production in similar proportions, and in these conditions it will be profitable for them to trade among themselves with specialization in those industries that are characterized by the presence of the effect of mass production. In this case, specialization allows you to expand production volumes and produce a product at a lower cost and, therefore, at a lower price. In order for this effect of mass production to be realized, a sufficiently capacious market is needed. International trade plays a decisive role in this, as it allows expanding markets. In other words, international trade allows the formation of a single integrated market that is larger than the market of any single country, and thus makes it possible to offer consumers more products at lower prices.

However, the realization of economies of scale, as a rule, leads to a violation perfect competition, since it is associated with the concentration of production and the consolidation of firms that become monopolists. Accordingly, the structure of markets changes, becoming either oligopolistic with a predominance of inter-industry trade in homogeneous products, or markets of monopolistic competition with developed intra-industry trade in differentiated products. In this case, international trade is increasingly concentrated in the hands of giant international firms, transnational corporations, which inevitably leads to an increase in intra-company trade, the directions of which are often determined not by the principles of comparative advantage or differences in the availability of factors of production, but by the strategic goals of the firm itself.

Allocate external(decreased costs per unit of goods within the firm as a result of an increase in the scale of production in the industry as a whole) and internal scale effect(decreased costs per unit of goods within the firm as a result of an increase in the scale of its production). The externality of scale suggests that the number of firms producing the same product increases, while the size of each of them remains the same. Usually, in this case, the market remains sufficiently competitive, which brings the patterns of trade based on this model closer to the classical theories of international trade, which assumed perfect competition. This means that exporters can sell as many goods as they like at the current price, which they cannot influence.

Internal economies of scale assume that the volume of production of goods has remained the same, but the number of firms producing it has decreased. In most cases, this leads to imperfect competition, at which producers can influence the price of their goods and ensure an increase in sales by reducing the price. An extreme case of internal economies of scale is a pure monopoly - a market situation in which the firm has no competitors for its products.

Product life cycle theory. In the mid 60s. American economist Raymond Vernon (J. Kravis, L. Wells, etc.) put forward the theory of the product life cycle, in which he tried to explain the development of world trade finished goods based on their life stages, i.e. the period of time during which the product has viability in the market and ensures the achievement of the goals of the seller.

This theory explains the development of world trade in finished goods based on the stages of their life in the market. New product market movement is underway multiple phases:emergence, growth of demand, its saturation, recession. The transition of a product from one stage to another creates new opportunities for locating production in different countries with varying degrees of provision with the necessary production conditions, as the nature of production, the required level of skills of the labor force, etc., change.

At the first stage When a product is produced in small batches, scientific personnel and engineers are the most important factors. During the period of growth the production of the product is becoming more and more massive, imitating products appear in other countries, and know-how is spreading. At this phase, the production of the product begins to move to less developed countries. scientific and technical countries.

In the third phase cycle, the number of competing products increases, demand is maintained by lowering prices. The problem of reducing production costs comes to the fore. As a result, there is a tendency to move the production of this product to those countries where the cost of its production is lower. Satisfaction of demand for this product in developed countries is due to its import from countries with low production costs. In the country of origin of this product, the technology of the product is being improved or a relatively new product is being created instead. The theory of the "life cycle of a product", reflecting certain realities of the development of the production of many products, is not a universal explanation of development trends, international trade. There are many products (for example, products with a short life cycle, high costs on transportation, providing significant opportunities for differentiation in quality, with a narrow circle of potential consumers) that do not fit into the theory of "product life cycle". For example, raw materials and fuels, for most of which there has always been and will be a demand, the life cycle of many types of manufacturing products stretches for decades and even centuries (Western economists refer to such goods as Scotch whiskey, Italian vermouth, French perfumes, etc. ).

Theory of competitive advantages. A successful attempt to identify new factors that determine the development of modern international trade was made by the American economist M. Porter. In 1991 he published the book "The Competitive Advantages of Countries" (in Russian translation the book was published under the title "International Competition"), in which he proposed a new approach to the analysis of the development of international trade. The obvious fact is that in modern conditions a significant part of world commodity flows is associated not with natural, but with acquired advantages, purposefully formed in the course of competition. Proceeding from the fact that firms, not countries, compete in the world market, M. Porter shows that a firm creates and maintains a competitive advantage and what is the role of government in this process.

Competitive advantages that allow a company to succeed in the global market depend, on the one hand, on the right competitive strategy, and on the other hand, on the ratio of factors (determinants) of these competitive advantages.

The choice of a competitive strategy by a firm depends on two main factors: the structure of the industry in which the firm operates and the position that the firm occupies in its industry. Market Structure industries, i.e. the nature of competition in it is determined by the number of competing firms and the possibility of new competitors, the presence of substitute products, the competitive positions of suppliers of raw materials and equipment and consumers of the final products of this industry. All this affects the degree of monopolization in the industry (imperfection of competition), and hence the profitability (competitiveness) of the company.

The position a firm occupies in an industry is determined by how the firm maintains its profitability (competitive advantage). The strength of the competitive position is ensured either by a lower level of costs than competitors, or by differentiation of the manufactured product (improving quality, creating products with new consumer properties, expanding after-sales service, etc.).

To succeed in the global market, it is necessary to combine the correctly chosen competitive strategy of the company with the competitive advantages of the country. M. Porter highlights four determinants of a country's competitive advantage(Fig. 5.1):

Figure 5.1 Determinants of a country's competitive advantage

§ factorial conditions, i.e. those competitive factors of production that are necessary for successful competition in this industry;

§ conditions of demand for goods and services, i.e. what is the demand in the domestic market for goods and services offered by the industry;

§ the strategy of the firm in a given country, their structure and rivalry, i.e. what are the conditions in the country that determine how firms are created and managed, and what is the nature of competition in the domestic market;

§ the nature of related or supporting industries in the country, i.e. the presence or absence in the country of related or supporting industries that are competitive in the world market.

This system also includes random events and government actions that can either enhance or weaken a country's competitive advantage.

The listed determinants form a national "rhombus". M. Porter emphasizes that countries have greatest chance to success in those industries or their segments where all four determinants of competitive advantage (the so-called national “diamond”) are most favorable. Moreover, the national "rhombus" is a system whose components are mutually reinforcing, and each determinant affects all the others. The state plays an important role in this process by conducting targeted economic policy, affects the parameters of production factors and domestic demand, the conditions for the development of supplier industries and related industries, the structure of firms and the nature of competition in the domestic market.

Thus, according to the theory of M. Porter, competition, including in the world market, is a dynamic, developing process, which is based on innovations and constant technology updates. Therefore, in order to explain competitive advantages in the world market, it is necessary to “find out how firms and countries improve the quality of factors, increase the efficiency of their application and create new ones” .

Assessing the theories of trade presented in this topic, it should be noted that:

None of the theories claims to be an exhaustive explanation of the structure of international trade;

The majority of trade is between countries with significantly different levels of economic development- this is inter-industry trade, based on differences in the availability of factors of production and well explained by classical theories of trade;

Trade between industrialized countries is increasingly taking on the character of intra-industry trade, the basis of which is economies of scale and product differentiation. This part of trade is well explained by the new theories of trade;

Thus, classical and new theories of trade should be assessed not as mutually exclusive, but as complementary to each other.

Similar information.

Product life cycle theory.

In the mid-60s, the American economist R. Vernon put forward the theory of the life cycle of a product. The product life cycle covers four stages - introduction, growth, maturity, decline. The first stage is product development (usually in a developed country). Production is small-scale and only a small part of the product is exported. In the growth stage, the demand for the product grows and its production expands, spreading to other developed countries. At the stage of maturity, the movement of goods to developing countries begins. In the decline stage, the country of innovation becomes a net importer, as demand and production are concentrated in developing countries.

Shortcomings of the theory:

Does not explain trends in world trade, as there are many goods with a short life cycle, high transportation costs;

Many goods can be diversified in quality;

For a number of goods there is a narrow circle of consumers.

Theory of economies of scale.

Developed in the 80s by P. Krugman and K. Lancaster. The essence of the theory: with a certain technology and organization of production, long-term average costs decrease as the volume of output increases, since there is an economy due to mass production. If countries with the same efficiency produce the same goods, then it makes sense to introduce specialization that will allow the product to be produced at a lower cost. To increase the scale of production, a sufficiently capacious market is needed, and international trade provides it.

Shortcomings of the theory:

An increase in the scale of production leads to a violation of perfect competition. Large corporations focus not on comparative advantages in trade, but on intra-company goals. Trade is becoming not global, but intracompany, the structure of markets is changing;

The implications of such trade on income distribution are not clear.

Theory of Competitive Advantage.

American economist M. Porter in 1991 proposed a new approach to the development of international trade. In modern conditions, international trade is based largely on acquired advantage. In the world market, international firms, not countries. Competitive advantages are provided by the strategy chosen by the firm and the ratio of factors of production.

The choice of strategy depends on the structure of the industry and the position that the firm occupies in its industry. The structure of an industry is determined by the number of firms in it, the presence of substitute products and suppliers of raw materials. A firm's position in an industry depends on costs and the degree of product differentiation.

Correctly chosen competitive strategy and the use of competitive advantages ensure success in the global market.

M. Porter identifies four determinants of competitive advantage (national diamond):

Provision with factors of production;

Parameters of domestic demand for the products of this industry;

The presence in the country of competitive supplying industries and related industries that produce complementary products;

National features strategies, structures and rivalries of firms. They determine the nature of competition in the domestic market.

If the industry, according to M. Porter, is characterized by the most favorable determinants, its products will be successfully sold on the world market. To search for competitive advantages in the world market, it is necessary to look at how firms in the country improve the quality of factors and create new ones, and how the state takes care of this by regulating their activities.

Product life cycle theory.

Shortcomings of the theory:

Does not explain trends in world trade, as there are many goods with a short life cycle, high transportation costs;

Many goods can be diversified in quality;

For a number of goods there is a narrow circle of consumers.

Theory of economies of scale.

Shortcomings of the theory:

An increase in the scale of production leads to a violation of perfect competition. Large corporations are guided not by comparative advantages in trade, but by intracompany goals. Trade is becoming not global, but intracompany, the structure of markets is changing;

The implications of such trade on income distribution are not clear.

Theory of Competitive Advantage.

American economist M. Porter in 1991 proposed a new approach to the development of international trade. In modern conditions, international trade is based largely on acquired advantage. International firms, not countries, compete in the world market. Competitive advantages are provided by the strategy chosen by the firm and the ratio of factors of production.

A well-chosen competitive strategy and the use of competitive advantages ensure success in the global market.

M. Porter identifies four determinants of competitive advantage (national diamond):

Provision with factors of production;

Parameters of domestic demand for the products of this industry;

The presence in the country of competitive supplying industries and related industries that produce complementary products;

National features of the strategy, structure and rivalry of firms. They determine the nature of competition in the domestic market.

Winning from foreign trade. Income distribution

Consider the American sugar market. Figure 10.4. it is shown what foreign trade gives to producers and consumers of sugar. Consider first the interests of consumers.

American sugar market World sugar market

Rice. 10.4. The beneficial effects of trade on consumers of imported products, competing importing producers and on the home country

Prior to entering the foreign market, the price of sugar in the US was $2,000 per 1 ton. The demand curve is the consumer's private marginal benefit curve. If such a price has been established on the market, it means that there is another consumer willing to pay this price for sugar. The benefit to consumers from a further non-increase in price will be area (c). The establishment of trade relations brings consumers a net gain in the amount of regions (a + b + d), since the price has fallen to $ 1 thousand per 1 ton of sugar (to the world level).

Producers in the absence of foreign trade received revenue in the amount of 2 x 40 = $ 80 thousand. The net gain (minus costs) was (a + e) for them. As a result of the establishment of trade relations, sugar producers receive more low price for your products. The additional benefit is reduced to area (e).

If, as a result of the establishment of trade relations, consumers gain areas (a + b + d), and producers lose (a), then the country's net gain from foreign trade will be (b + d).

The same toolkit can be used to demonstrate net gain in the rest of the world. It is equal to the difference between the gain foreign manufacturers sugar and losses to foreign consumers as a result of rising prices, area (f). Thus, since the rest of the world gets a payoff of (f) and the US gets a gain of (b+d), world trade beneficial to everyone. The distribution of benefits depends only on whose prices have changed the most, since the volume of trade in both countries is the same. In our example, the US gains more (b+d >f) because US sugar prices have fallen more than foreign prices have risen.

Benefit distribution rule: benefits from foreign trade are distributed in direct proportion to price changes on both sides. Therefore, economists pay great attention terms of trade or the ratio of export prices to import prices. If the terms of trade are defined for more than two goods, then they are defined as the ratio of export price indices (Px) and import price indices (Pm). To calculate the terms of trade, an export price index is first constructed:

i=1

m i*P i

Thus, the terms of trade are equal to the ratio of the two indices. An increase in this indicator is usually referred to as an improvement in the terms of trade. If foreigners pay for every unit of export they sell with more imports, we become richer. However, this is not necessarily the case. If the terms of trade change as a result of a change in our behavior (finding a more efficient way of producing products), then we can benefit both from an increase in production efficiency and from an increase in exports at a lower price. Thus, the terms of trade provide important information, but it can only be used along with other data.

As an example of taking into account the terms of trade, one can cite the dispute between J. Keynes and the American economist B. Olin over reparations with Germany after the First World War. In order to pay the required amounts to Germany, according to J. Keynes, it will be necessary to boost exports and restrain imports. This will worsen its terms of trade, and the burden of repayments will be unbearable. According to B. Olin, reparations will increase the incomes of other states and they will present more demand for German goods. Germany's exports will increase, which will improve terms of trade. B. Olin was right.

Foreign trade is affected by the growth of factors of production. The impact of an increase in the supply of factors on foreign trade is determined by which factors are growing: those employed predominantly in industries that compete with imports or export industries. Therefore, allocate export-led growth- an increase in the production of goods for export and import-substituting growth- an increase in the production of goods that are imported into the country.

Export-oriented growth abroad, by improving our terms of trade, is beneficial to us, while import-substituting growth in the same place worsens our terms of exchange. Our export-oriented growth also worsens these conditions, reducing the direct benefits of growth, while our import-substituting growth, on the contrary, improves them, becoming a secondary effect of growth. Therefore, attention should be paid to the problem ruinous growth when the expansion of exports leads to such a deterioration in the terms of trade that the welfare of the nation is reduced. This problem was first analyzed in 1958 by the American economist J. Bhagwati. It may arise for most developing countries, where economic growth opportunities are due to the expansion of extraction and export of raw materials. Since the demand for raw materials in the world market is often characterized by low elasticity, the rapid increase in physical volumes of exports leads to such a fall in world prices for raw materials that it offsets the effect of the economic growth itself.

The impact of foreign trade on the income of owners of factors of production.

This influence depends on the time factor. In a short period, the country (USA) specializes in the production of grain, prices for it and for land rise, which increases the income of land owners. The wages of agricultural workers are also growing, as their supply is limited in the short term.

If a country imports sugar, the price of sugar decreases and domestic production decreases. demand for labor and land is falling, and the incomes of landowners and workers are declining. The reverse processes are taking place in the rest of the world.

In time, the landowners and the workers who grow sugar will begin to grow grain. The price of land and labor in grain farms will begin to decline. However, in the long run there is a change in the structure of factors. Grain production, for example, requires more land than sugar production. This leads to an increase in the price of land and a decrease in the price of labor. So in the US, in the production of grain, the landowners will win, and all the workers will lose, regardless of which production these factors are involved in.

In 1941, American economists W. Stolper and P. Samuelson proved the pattern known as Stolper-Samuelson theorem: in the long run, the development of foreign trade leads to an increase in the income of the owners of the factor of production, which is intensively used in export industries, and to a drop in the income of the factor of production, which is intensively used in industries that compete with imports.

It follows from the Heckscher-Ohlin theory and the Stolper-Samuelson theorem that the more one or another production factor is specialized in the production of export products, the more it benefits from the liberalization of foreign trade.

To measure the degree of export or import specialization of production factors, one can use data on the share of income of these factors in the value added of export and import-substituting industries, as well as in the country's national income.

The indicator of the degree of export-import specialization of the factor (S i, x/m) can be calculated as follows:

S i,x /m =	Q i k-Q i m
Q i y

where, Q i k– share of factor income i in the value of exports;

Q im– share of factor income i in the cost of products competing with imports, equal in volume to imports;

Q i y– share of factor income i in the national income.

In economics, an increase in the supply of factors affects the distribution of income. The supply of various factors grows differently and this affects the growth in various industries. If the supply of labor grows and the country exports labor-intensive products, then incomes in export industries will grow. A growing sector of the economy will attract capital from other sectors and this will lead to a decrease in the efficiency of the country's economy as a whole.

In 1955, the English economist T. Rybchinsky proved a theorem known as Rybchinsky's theorem : an increasing supply of one of the factors of production leads to an increase in production and income in the industry where this factor is used relatively more intensively, and to a decrease in production and income in the industry where this factor is used relatively less intensively.

One of the well-known manifestations of the pattern described by T. Rybchinsky is the so-called " dutch disease". In Holland, the discovery of gas fields in the North Sea led to rapid growth its production by diverting resources from manufacturing industries. This led to a reduction in the output and export of manufacturing products. Similar processes are currently observed in Russia.

In the last decades of the 20th century, significant shifts take place in the directions and structure of international trade, which are not always explained by the classical theory of MT. Among such qualitative shifts, one should note the transformation of scientific and technical progress into a dominant factor in international trade, the growing share of counter deliveries of similar manufactured goods. There was a need to take this influence into account in the theories of international trade.

Alternative theories can be roughly divided into two areas. The first direction is based on creative development the main provisions of the classical school, the second - a decisive revision of classical concepts and the creation of fundamentally new theories.

Theory of economies of scale and intra-industry trade

The origins of the theory of economies of scale go back to A. Marshall, who noticed the main reasons for the advantage of a group of companies compared to a separate company. IN modern theory economies of scale (the theory of international trade based on monopolistic competition), the greatest contribution was made by M. Camp and P. Krugman. This theory explains why there is trade between countries that are equally endowed with factors of production. As the scale of production, which usually takes place within the framework of monopolistic competition, increases, the cost of production of each unit of output decreases.

Many countries are provided with the basic factors of production in similar proportions, and therefore it will be profitable for them to trade among themselves if they specialize in industries that are characterized by the presence of a mass production effect. Specialization allows you to expand production volumes, reduce costs, price. In order for economies of scale to be realized, a capacious market is needed, i.e. world.

It becomes profitable for countries to specialize and exchange even technologically homogeneous, but differentiated products (the so-called intra-industry trade).

This theory is close to the theory of intra-industry trade of the English economist Bela Balassa, who drew attention not only to the scale effect, but also to the differences in the tastes of consumers in different countries, the geographical proximity of their border regions, and the mismatch of agricultural seasons.

Further development of the theory of intra-industry trade is associated with the names of G. Grubel, P. Armington, P. Krugman, K. Lancaster, E. Helpman and others.

The theory of intersecting demand.

Swedish economist S. Linder in 1961. it was found that one of the main reasons for intra-industry trade between countries is overlapping demand. A necessary condition for the export of goods is saturated domestic demand, only under this condition can the goods enter the world market. However, the best result from exports can be achieved in trade with a country that has the same or comparable demand structure.

In accordance with the concept of S. Linder, real demand is supported by a high level of income, which allows you to purchase a higher quality product. Thus, the greatest intersection of demand patterns in partner countries based on high level income is the key to more intensive mutual trade.

Product life cycle theory

In the mid 60s. XX century American economist R. Vernon put forward the theory of the product life cycle, in which he tried to explain the development of world trade in finished products based on the stages of their life. The life stage is the period of time during which the product has viability in the market and achieves the goals of the seller.

The product life cycle covers 4 stages:

2. Growth. Demand for the product is growing, its production is expanding and spreading to other developed countries. The product becomes standardized. Competition is growing, exports are expanding.

3. Maturity. This stage is characterized by large-scale production, the competitive struggle is dominated by the price factor. The country of innovation no longer has competitive advantages. Production is moving to developing countries where labor is cheaper.

4. Decline. In developed countries, production is decreasing, sales markets are concentrated in developing countries. The country of innovation becomes a net importer.

Neotechnological theories

Proponents of the neo-technological direction tried to explain the structure of international trade by technological factors. The main advantages are associated with the monopoly position of the innovator firm. A new optimal strategy for firms: to produce not what is relatively cheaper, but what everyone needs, but which no one can produce yet. As soon as this technology can be mastered by others - to produce something new.

The attitude towards the state has also changed. According to the Heckscher-Ohlin model, the task of the state is not to interfere with firms. Economists of the neo-technological direction believe that the state should support the production of high-tech export goods and not interfere with the curtailment of obsolete industries.

The most popular model is the technology gap model. Its foundations were laid in 1961. in the work of the English economist M. Posner. Later, the model was developed in the works of R. Vernon, R. Findley, E. Mansfield. Trade between countries can be driven by technological changes occurring in one industry in one of the trading countries. This country is gaining a comparative advantage: new technology makes it possible to produce goods at low cost. If a new product is created, then the innovator firm has a quasi-monopoly (unstable) for a certain time; earns additional profit.

As a result of technical innovations, a technological gap has formed between countries. This gap will be gradually bridged as other countries will begin to copy the innovation of the innovator country. Posner introduces the notion of a “stream of innovation” that occurs over time in different industries and different countries to explain the constantly existing international trade.

Both trading countries benefit from the innovation. As new technology spreads, the less developed country continues to benefit, while the more developed country loses its advantage. Thus, international trade exists even with the same endowment of countries with factors of production.

Theory of Competitive Advantage

Based on research conducted in the late 80s of the twentieth century in the ten largest industrial countries (including the USA, Germany and Japan), the American economist Michael Porter developed the theory of the international competitiveness of nations. In the article "Competitive Advantages of Countries" in 1990 . M. Porter proposed a new approach to the analysis of the theory of international trade. He first identified industries in which national companies have been successful internationally. Then he conducted research related to the origin of the industry in each of the states and its subsequent development. This made it possible to obtain the following results:

1. Competitiveness is determined by the efficiency of companies in the use of capacities in the production of goods and services.

2. Productivity is embedded in the national and regional environment of the country.

3. The competitiveness of a particular country is closely linked to the ability of the national industry to innovate and modernize.

4. In modern conditions, the role of the government is mainly to create necessary conditions to revitalize the activities of companies, and it is constantly increasing.

As the main element that determines competitiveness at the national level, Porter calls productivity. National companies increase productivity by improving product quality, applying new technologies, new working methods.

According to Porter, the main parameters (determinants) that determine the country's competitiveness, and hence the development of modern foreign trade, are:

1. Factor conditions. Porter believes that these factors are not inherited by the country, but are created in the process of expanding production.

2. Conditions of demand. This parameter represents the requirements of the domestic market that determine the development of the company, the relationship with the potential development of the world market. Porter argues that the demands of the domestic market are critical to influencing a company's operations. For example, the Japanese, living in small rooms, focused on the consumption of cheap energy-saving air conditioners, which the Japanese industry began to produce. Subsequently, such air conditioners were widely used throughout the world, which ensured their export by Japanese companies.

3. Related and service industries. Characterizes the presence of an effective production environment that directly affects the activities of the company. Italian companies producing jewelry, thrive because Italy is the world leader in the production of machines for working precious stones and metals.

4. Company strategy and competition. At the same time, it is impossible to single out any single and universal control system that would be equally applicable to everyone. Italian firms, leading in the production of furniture, lighting devices, packaging machines, are characterized by dynamism, the absence of rigid forms of management, and the ability to change quickly. For German firms specializing in the production of optics, precision engineering, is typical rigid system centralized control.

The theory of competitive advantage attaches great importance to internal competition and geographic concentration. Intense competition in the domestic market stimulates the company to go abroad, promotes the search for foreign markets. Geographic concentration enhances internal competition, leads to competition to its maximum intensity.

It follows from practice that a country rarely has one competitive industry. Competitive industries are interconnected by vertical (buyer-seller) and horizontal (general consumers, technologies, channels) links. One competitive industry contributes to the emergence of another, and thus clusters appear ( industrial groups). cluster- represents geographically adjacent interconnected companies and organizations associated with them, operating in a certain area and characterized by a common activity, complementary to each other. The proximity between companies in the cluster and, as a result, the presence of contacts, supply chains and technology leads to an intensive exchange of information within the cluster. Sometimes increased local demand contributes to the emergence of a cluster. The formation of a cluster for the production of irrigation equipment in Israel was due to the intention of the country in the conditions of limited water resources switch to food self-sufficiency.

See: Frolova T.A. World economy. Lecture notes. Pref. by: aup.ru.

Alternative theories of international trade. Theory of competitive advantages Rybchinsky's theorem alternative theories of international trade

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