World volume of foreign trade. The current state of world trade

* this work is not scientific work, is not graduation qualifying work and is the result of processing, structuring and formatting the collected information, intended to be used as a source of material for self-preparation of study papers.

Course work

on the global economy

Subject: " Features of modern world trade»

Introduction

One of the most dominant factors in the modern world economy is the process of globalization, which is characterized by the cross-border movement of capital, international trade in goods and services, and labor migration. In turn, the foundation of the process of globalization of the world is geoeconomics as a new paradigm of the world order. It is based, according to experts, on reproductive systems that have escaped national boundaries and formed into gigantic global internationalized reproductive cycles.

The world trading system is also affected by transport and telecommunications technologies. As a result, the movement of raw materials, goods and services has accelerated; there have been qualitative changes in the financial markets. Now, within one trading day, capital can flow from country to country, from region to region, no matter how far apart they are. Transnational corporations were able to coordinate production in different parts of the world. Through electronic means international communications information and transport costs have been sharply reduced.

The driving force behind globalization is high science-intensive technologies that facilitate international exchange, lead to an increase in the share of exports and imports, and include the regional economy in the system of the global division of labor. This, in turn, leads to the general liberalization of foreign trade and money markets of various countries, to the internationalization of production and distribution networks, to the rapid and widespread adoption of technologies, thanks to which the international flows of goods, services and capital become unhindered and proceed at higher speeds. . The industrial production of the states involved in this process is undergoing reorganization, as the products of individual countries step over their borders, and enterprises enter the financial markets of the world. In the context of globalization, the structure of production and finance of various countries becomes interconnected and interdependent. The process is accompanied by an increase in the number of foreign transactions, and the effect is a new international division of labor, in which the creation of national wealth is more dependent on the economic entities of other countries 0 .

The openness and transparency of the economy, state and society - the obvious attributes of modern economic development - have caused fundamental changes in interstate cooperation in the world. The last two decades have seen a turning point: the old protectionist tendencies associated with the oil crisis have subsided, a process of gradual reduction in the size of customs barriers and a growing recognition of the need to liberalize international economic relations has unfolded.

Any state, if it wants to get the maximum benefit in the framework of modern economic relations, must pursue a balanced, rational external economic strategy. First, it is necessary that the liberalization of trade and financial turnover be carried out on the basis of the national interests of the country in accordance with bilateral and multilateral agreements. Secondly, the policy of increasing openness under new conditions is becoming more and more widespread - within the framework of integration unions, which include several countries.

The relevance of the chosen topic is due to the ever-increasing importance that it acquires in modern world trade, as well as the expanding processes of integration and globalization, in which Russia has recently taken an active part.

The purpose of this work is to analyze the features of modern world trade, the processes dominating in world trade and the impact these processes have on Russia. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to solve a number of tasks:

Give the concept of the world market and international trade.

Define theoretical basis foreign trade.

To reveal the place of Russia in the world market and determine the trends in the development of trade relations.

Indicate the place owned by world trade organizations in the process of world trade.

Determine the strategic ways of developing Russia's foreign trade.

Consider the problems of Russia's accession to the WTO.

The object of consideration is the world market.

The subject of consideration is the prospects for Russia's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO).

1. The concept of the world market and international trade

1.1. Theoretical foundations of foreign trade

The first and oldest form of international relations - people's trade, arose under the influence international division labor. The latter gave rise to the need for the exchange of goods produced in individual countries. In addition, practically no country has the necessary resources to fully satisfy the entire system of constantly evolving social needs. Trade in goods and services is available to almost everyone, even to underdeveloped countries: if they do not have goods that are in demand, ecologically clean recreation areas, exotic African and Pacific coasts are offered. As a result, foreign trade has become a public source of income for all countries and created additional conditions for economic growth. At the same time, countries find themselves in a certain dependence on each other. In order to better meet the needs of the population of their country, each of them buys imported goods and services.

International trade is an international exchange of products of labor (goods, services, intellectual property) of all countries of the world. International trade - the sphere of international commodity-money relations, the totality of foreign trade of all countries of the world 0 . It consists of two counter streams - exports and imports. The main participants in international trade: foreign trade companies (exporters and importers), states, groups of countries, as well as individuals.

Diverse international trade activities can be classified depending on the product specialization: trade in finished products; trade in goods that have undergone primary processing; trade in raw materials. The higher the level of development of the country, the less raw materials and more finished products the state exports.

Depending on the type of export-import operations, international trade activities can be classified:

Export and import of finished goods;

Import and export of raw materials and semi-finished products for processing with subsequent return to the country;

Temporary import or export of goods with subsequent return to the country (for example, to participate in international competitions, exhibitions, presentations);

Re-export and re-import (re-export - export abroad of goods previously imported into the country, for example, if the goods are not paid for, defective or resold to a third country; re-import - import from abroad of previously exported national goods);

Import and export of goods belonging to one international transnational company;

Countervailing trade;

Barter transactions on a non-currency basis (payment for goods occurs in kind with other goods);

Trade compensation transactions on a monetary basis (when part of the goods are paid for in money, and partly by a counter delivery of goods);

Industrial compensation transactions (for example, the supply of equipment for the production of goods will be paid for by the goods produced with its help).

To assess international and foreign trade, a group of indicators 0 is used:

1) trade turnover - the value of exports and imports for a certain period in current prices;

2) commodity structure - the ratio of different commodity groups in the structure of world exports;

3) geographical structure - the structure of world trade depending on the region of the world, part of the world, continent.

The first theoretical basis of foreign trade was the theory of mercantilists. It is based on the fundamental role of gold (money) and focuses on the maximum safety and increase in the amount of gold in the country. In this regard, it was recommended to stimulate exports and limit imports so as not to spend gold on buying goods outside the country. At the same time, bans were introduced on the trade of the colonies with all countries, except for the mother countries, on the development of production in the colonies. In fact, the mercantilists proposed enriching some at the expense of others, but their merit lies in the fact that they first drew attention to the problems of foreign trade, emphasized its importance for the economic development of the country, described and justified a certain ratio of export and import costs, i.e. e. laid the foundation for the balance of payments.

A. Smith developed the first classical theory of foreign trade - the theory of absolute advantages. He argued that those countries that actively participate in the international division of labor will benefit the most. A country that has certain advantages in the production of a commodity should specialize in the production of this commodity and supply it to other countries. This statement of A. Smith was supplemented by D. Ricardo, who created the theory of comparative advantages. He proved that foreign trade brings additional benefits even to those countries that have an efficient economy. Ricardo built his theory on the basis of labor theory cost. IN modern conditions comparative advantages are defined in terms of opportunity costs, i.e. the cost of producing one good is determined in terms of the cost of another good.

The Heckscher-Ohlin theory arose in the first third of the 20th century. In it, the factors that determine the international division of labor are associated not only with the natural conditions of production in the country, but also with the conditions created in the process of development of production. It proceeded from the fact that the historical and natural conditions of development predetermined the uneven provision of countries with factors of production, and, above all - labor resources and capital.

In the process of international trade, the prices for factors of production in the trading countries are equalized. Initially, the price of available factors of production will be low, and those that are scarce will be high. Gradually, the initial advantages of both countries are lost, and each country must look for new opportunities for exporting its products, improving production. This mechanism was substantiated by the American economist P. Samuelson, and therefore the theory of the ratio of production factors is often called the theory of Heckscher - Ohlin - Samuelson.

There are a lot of modern theories of foreign trade, in fact, each school and its individual areas offer their own points of view on this problem. The most common are the following 0:

Neotechnological theories try to explain foreign trade relations by the costs of research and development, the level of average wages and the proportion of skilled labor. They explain the emergence of advantages by a monopoly on individual discoveries and new technologies, which makes it possible to dominate the production of these goods and the world market until these technologies are mastered by other countries. Then new research is needed to produce new goods.

The theory of specific factors says that the different provision of individual countries with specific factors, i.e. factors that can be used only for the production of this product, leads to further development of these factors in export industries and a reduction in industries competing with imports.

The theory of the firm is associated with the strengthening of the role of individual firms and corporations in international trade. Ultimately, the comparative advantage is always received not by a nation, but by an individual firm exporting a given product. Technologically complex products are created by the company based on the needs and demand that exist within the country. Only after expanding production and saturating the domestic market, the company can enter the foreign market, in order to sell its products, it is necessary to find a buyer country whose demand structure in the domestic market would be as close as possible to the demand structure of the exporting country. This explains the possibility of trade transactions between countries at the same level of development, in particular, between developed industrial countries.

The theory of the international competitiveness of nations, developed by the American economist M. Porter, says that the place of each country and its specific producers in the world market is determined by the following four main conditions: the quantity and quality of various factors of production, demand conditions in the domestic market, the presence of related and service industries, firm strategy and internal competition.

1.2. World market

Relatively stable flows of movement of goods and services led to the emergence of a new form of commodity exchange - the world market. The modern world market is a sphere of stable commodity-money relations for the exchange of produced national products. The subjects of these relations can be states, individual organizations and enterprises, as well as individuals. As well as within the country, in the structure of the world market one can single out markets for goods and services, markets for labor, capital, and, in addition, markets for the achievements of science and technology. As part of the latter, information markets are becoming increasingly important in modern conditions. In addition, it is possible to single out individual markets on a regional basis - European, Asian, South American, Far Eastern, etc.

In order for a country to enter the world market, it needs to have export resources, i.e. stocks of competitive goods and services that are in demand, currency or other means of payment for imports, as well as a developed foreign trade infrastructure: vehicles, warehouses, communications, etc. Settlements for foreign trade operations are made by banking organizations, and the country's insurance business insures goods and transportation . Of course, if necessary, you can use the services of the infrastructure of other countries, but, as a rule, these are expensive services, and each country involved in the world market seeks to create its own infrastructure.

Two counter flows of goods and services form the exports and imports of each country. Export is the sale and export of goods abroad, import is the purchase and import of goods from abroad. The difference between the cost estimates of exports and imports forms the trade balance, and the sum of these estimates is the foreign trade turnover.

In the process of development, the world market has clearly identified two components: the market for basic goods and the market for finished products.

All developing countries, which specialize mainly in the export of raw materials and labor-intensive goods, trade in the market for basic goods. Here, Russia also sells the bulk of its exports. The competitiveness of such goods depends mainly on two factors: quality and production, transportation and storage costs. Since the quality of similar goods is approximately the same, the cost factor becomes a pricing factor. And as a result of price competition, the country that has higher labor productivity wins. wage better equipped or organized production. And the competition in this market is quite tough. In modern conditions, it is still increasing due to the fact that the share of this market in the total sales volume is decreasing, and the number of participants is increasing due to countries with economies in transition, and above all, the former Soviet republics.

The second segment of the world market is the finished goods market. At present, it is also stratified into three clearly defined levels: lower, middle and higher. The criterion for their selection was the level of manufacturability of products. At the lowest level of the market, there is trade in ferrous metallurgy products, construction materials, textiles, garments, footwear and other light industry products. At the middle level, they trade in machine tools, vehicles, rubber and plastic products, products of basic chemistry and woodworking. At the highest level, aerospace equipment, automated office equipment, information technology, electronics, pharmaceutical products, precision and measuring instruments, and electrical equipment are sold. The markets of the last level are the most promising and develop at a much faster pace than others. Here there is a fierce competition between developed countries, building their economy on the highest achievements of modern scientific and technological revolution, and not interested in the appearance of new competitors in these markets.

Competitiveness in the world market is the ability of the state to create more wealth per unit of cost than rivals in the world market. When determining this indicator, 378 different criteria are taken into account, first of all - per capita income, inflation rate, foreign trade balance. The opinion of 21,000 heads of the world's largest companies is taken into account, as well as the availability of natural resources, means of communication, etc.

Foreign trade policy is a set of measures used by the state to regulate trade relations and relations with other countries. Historically, two types of foreign trade policy have been formed - protectionism and free trade. There is a constant peculiar rivalry between them, since both types have advantages and disadvantages, and depending on specific historical conditions, one of them prevails.

Protectionism is a policy of protecting the national producer and consumer. From the manufacturer's point of view, such measures are necessary to support newly created, young industries, protecting them from the competition of foreign firms that have certain advantages in this industry. But, protecting national producers, protectionism creates new problems: prices rise in the domestic market, demand and consumption are reduced. In addition, the absence of foreign competition reduces incentives to improve production, increases the privileges of individual industries and industries, and contributes to the development of stagnation in the economy. Protectionism uses customs duties and non-tariff barriers.

Free trade is based on non-intervention of the state in foreign trade. Supporters of the principles of free trade believe that the goals that protectionism sets for itself are too expensive for countries, and through free trade they can be achieved at a lower cost. Despite this, free trade in its pure form is rarely used in practice. Each country builds its policy on a combination of these and other methods, taking into account the tasks of its development.

The modern world market is a complex system that is constantly changing depending on the demand and supply of goods and services. Therefore, the first distinguishing feature of the modern market is its dynamism. The second feature is a change in the balance of power. Whereas previously the United States dominated world exports, now Western Europe is participating in the struggle for supremacy, followed by Japan and the "new industrial states" of Southeast Asia. The third feature is the formation of large regional trading blocs. There are 9 of them: European Union (EU), North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), European Free Trade Association (EFTA), Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay), Committee of South Africa Development (SADC), West African Economic and Monetary Union (WEMUA), Andean Pact.

2. Russia and its place in the world market

2.1 Structure of foreign trade

Foreign trade is currently one of the most important sectors of the Russian economy, since it is it that determines the dynamics of many macroeconomic parameters. The structure of Russia's foreign trade is determined by the following factors0:

Separation National economy depending on competitiveness in the foreign and domestic markets into 3 groups of industries:

a) resource industries that are competitive in the foreign market (oil, gas, timber, diamond industries, partly energy, ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy);

b) branches of the manufacturing industry that are competitive in the domestic and partly in the foreign market (aerospace, nuclear industry, partly power engineering, heavy machine tool building, etc.);

c) industries that are unable to enter the foreign market, but are necessary for the domestic market (automotive industry, agricultural engineering, light and food industries, production of building materials).

2.2 Russia's place in the world market

Russia is only gaining its place in the world market. This is a lengthy process in which everything is important: both the characteristics of the country entering the market and the characteristics of the market itself. At present, Russia trades only in the market of basic goods, selling raw materials and energy carriers (Table 1). With some goods, Russia may also appear in certain markets for finished goods, but it is still too early to talk about gaining a strong position in these markets, especially if we are talking about their upper level. The two lower levels are more accessible, although even there there is fierce competition between trading countries. Non-price competition methods prevail here. First of all, the quality of goods competes, the constant expansion and updating of the range of products offered, the development of design, the improvement of consumer properties predetermined a steady demand only for the best samples of goods. The production of such goods in Russia for the world market, as a rule, is impossible.

Table 1

Foreign trade of Russia in 2004 0

2.3 The place of the military-industrial complex in the world market

The greatest opportunity to conquer the finished goods market is given by the conversion of the military-industrial complex (MIC), whose industries possess high technologies, productive fixed assets, and have a high personnel and scientific and technical potential. Military-industrial complex enterprises, even in the conditions of a closed economy, maintained contacts with foreign firms, participated in international exhibitions and auctions, therefore, they have some experience of international competition. All this creates a real opportunity to occupy a certain niche in the finished goods market.

2.4 Prospects for Russia's foreign trade activities

In general, assessing the prospects for Russia's foreign trade, it is expected that the growth rate of foreign trade turnover with non-CIS countries in 2004-2006. will be in the range of 96.2-108.1%, including exports - 89.1-106.2%, imports - 107.2-111.9 percent 0 . Table 2 shows the main forecast indicators.

table 2

The main indicators of the forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation until 2006

Option I is based on a scenario that is based on relatively stable, but compared to the current period, somewhat less favorable external and internal conditions, including taking into account the possibility of worsening commodity conditions in international markets.

Option II assumes a rather favorable combination of external and internal conditions: relative stability of the exchange rate, improvement of trade and political conditions for access of domestic goods to foreign markets, successful completion of negotiations on accession to the WTO, improvement of the global general economic and commodity situation in the main positions of Russian exports.

That. the strategic direction of Russia's foreign trade policy is the country's integration into the world economic community. Russia's position on this issue is unequivocal and consistent: Russia should join the World Trade Organization as soon as possible, but this process should take place on standard conditions equal to those of other WTO member countries.

3. Russia's accession to the WTO

3.1 The concept and structure of the WTO

The World Trade Organization (WTO) was founded in 1995. It is the successor to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), concluded in 1947.

The WTO is both an organization and a complex legal documents defining the rights and obligations of governments in the field of international trade in goods and services (appendix). The right basis of the WTO is 0:

1. General Agreement on Trade in Goods (GATT) as amended in 1994.

2. General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS).

3. Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS).

3.2 Tasks of the WTO

The main tasks of the WTO are the liberalization of international trade, ensuring its fairness and predictability, creating a favorable environment for economic growth and improving the economic well-being of people.

3.3 Distinctive features of the WTO

The World Trade Organization has the following characteristics:

1. The WTO is, first and foremost, an organization created to promote freer international trade. WTO actions are aimed at removing trade barriers between countries.

2. The WTO is not any supreme body whose decisions are binding on the governments of all member countries of this organization.

3. WTO member countries agree among themselves on international trade issues, but subject to WTO rules.

4. Membership in the WTO does not prohibit the establishment of customs duties on certain types of goods. However, the usual amount of such duties does not exceed an average of 5-7%.

5. The WTO is a democratic organization where decisions are made by consensus and only in exceptional cases (and such were only in GATT practice) - by majority vote.

6. All WTO member countries are equal, regardless of their size and level of economic development.

7. The WTO agreements contain provisions that allow the governments of the participating countries to take measures to protect the environment, to protect the life and health of people, animals and plants.

3.4 Stages and conditions for accession of new countries to the WTO

The procedure for joining the World Trade Organization, developed over half a century of GATT/WTO existence, is multifaceted and consists of several stages. As the experience of applicant countries shows, this process takes an average of 5-7 years. All the accession procedures listed below fully apply to Russia.

At the first stage, within the framework of special Working Groups (the WG on Russia's accession to the WTO includes 67 countries, including all major trading partners), a detailed consideration at the multilateral level of the economic mechanism and trade and political regime of the acceding country is carried out for their compliance with the rules and regulations of the WTO. After that, consultations and negotiations begin on the conditions for the applicant country's membership in this organization. These consultations and negotiations are usually held on a bilateral level with all interested WG member countries.

First of all, the negotiations relate to "commercially significant" concessions that the acceding country will be ready to provide to WTO members on access to its markets (fixed in the bilateral Protocols on access to markets for goods and services), as well as on the format and timing of the assumption of obligations under the Agreements. arising from WTO membership (formulated in the Report of the Working Group).

In turn, the acceding country, as a rule, receives the rights that all other WTO members have, which will practically mean the end of its discrimination in foreign markets. (Although, for example, China was not able to obtain all these rights in full). In case of illegal actions on the part of any member of the organization, any country will be able to file a corresponding complaint with the Dispute Settlement Body (DRB), whose decisions are binding for unconditional execution at the national level by each member of the WTO.

In accordance with the established procedure, the results of all negotiations on the liberalization of market access and the terms of accession are formalized in the following official documents 0:

The report of the Working Group, which sets out the entire package of rights and obligations that the applicant country will assume as a result of the negotiations;

List of obligations for tariff concessions in the field of goods and by level of support Agriculture;

the List of Specific Obligations for Services and the List of Exemptions from the MFN;

Protocol on accession, legally formalizing the agreements reached at the bilateral and multilateral levels.

One of the main conditions for the accession of new countries to the WTO is to bring their national legislation and practice of regulating foreign economic activity in line with the provisions of the package of agreements of the Uruguay Round.

At the final stage of accession, the national legislative body of the applicant country ratifies the entire package of documents agreed within the framework of the Working Group and approved by the General Council. After that, these obligations become part of the WTO documents and national legislation, and the candidate country itself receives the status of a WTO member.

In 1993, Russia formally applied to join the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), and in accordance with the procedures, a Working Group on Russia's accession to the GATT was established, which was transformed after the establishment in 1995 of the World Trade Organization (WTO) into Working Group on the Accession of the Russian Federation to the WTO (WG). The mandate of the WG is to study the trade regime and develop the conditions for Russia's participation in the WTO.

The negotiation process for Russia's accession to the WTO began in 1995. At the first stage, it was focused on the consideration at the multilateral level within the framework of the WG of the trade and political regime of Russia with a view to its compliance with WTO norms.

After the presentation in 1998 of the initial Russian proposals for market access for goods and proposals for the level of support for agriculture, negotiations began at the bilateral level. In 1999, the WTO members received the first version of the List of Specific Obligations for Access to the Services Market and the draft List of Most Favored Nation Exemptions (MFN). Since 2000, negotiations have become full-scale, that is, they cover all aspects of Russia's accession.

As part of the accession process, the Russian delegation is negotiating in four areas, and they are based on documents and negotiation proposals approved by the Government of the Russian Federation.

1. Negotiations on tariff issues. The goal is to determine the maximum level (“binding”) of import customs duty rates for the entire Commodity Nomenclature of Foreign Economic Activity, the right to which Russia will receive after joining the WTO.

Currently, about 90% of tariff positions have been agreed with partners. Among the problematic areas where agreement between the parties has not yet been found are a number of agricultural products, aircraft, cars, furniture, etc.

2. Negotiations on agricultural issues, in addition to the tariff aspect, include a discussion of the acceptable volumes of domestic state support for the agricultural sector (AMS) within the so-called "yellow" box (subsidies to be reduced) and the level of export subsidies for agricultural products and food. Consideration of these issues, as a rule, takes place at multilateral consultations with the participation of members of the quadro group (USA, EU, Japan, Canada), the countries of the Cairn Group (leading liberal-minded exporters of agricultural products) and other interested states. These negotiations are extremely complex.

The last round of consultations on agriculture took place on 21 June 2005 in Geneva. The Russian side, in response to numerous requests from the WG member countries, provided data on the volume of domestic support in 2001-2003. in the format required by the WTO. At the same time, Russia's position on the permitted volumes of state support remained unchanged (representative period 1993-1995 with the amount of support of 9.5 billion dollars).

3. Negotiations on access to the services market are aimed at agreeing on the conditions for the access of foreign services and service providers to the Russian market. Negotiations are most acute in such sensitive sectors as financial, "energy" and telecommunications, access to which is of particular commercial interest to the leading members of the WTO. In addition, some countries are interested in improving the conditions for access to the Russian market for individuals - service providers (India, Canada, Switzerland).

As a result of the completed negotiations, Russia agreed to assume obligations in about 100 service sectors (out of 155 sectors provided for by the WTO classification). In some cases, the position of Russia provides for more stringent conditions for the work of foreign suppliers in the Russian market compared to the conditions provided for by the current legislation. This position will allow, if necessary, to use additional tools to protect national suppliers from foreign competition in the future.

4. Negotiations on systemic issues are devoted to determining the measures that Russia will have to take in the field of legislation and its enforcement in order to fulfill its obligations as a WTO member.

3.6 Positive and negative features of Russia's accession to the WTO

It is necessary to be aware that WTO accession has both a number of advantages for Russia and several inevitable disadvantages, the negative impact of which our government seeks to minimize during the negotiation process.

First of all, Russia will be limited in the use of instruments of state regulation of economic exchanges and subsidies. In addition, the ability to protect the domestic market of goods and services from foreign competition will be limited to four instruments, such as an export tariff, anti-dumping, protective and countervailing tariffs.

Undoubtedly, positive aspects include, first of all, the introduction into Russian legislation of stable, predictable rules of the game and uniform approaches to the application of mechanisms for regulating foreign economic activity. The extension of these rules to Russia will increase its investment attractiveness for foreign investors and make the economic and legal climate more predictable for Russian economic entities. Of course, this process will require certain changes to the current legislation.

Secondly, although not immediately, the conditions for access to world markets for Russian goods and services will improve significantly. This should have a positive impact on the economic activity of Russian enterprises, and, as a result, on the income of the Russian budget. In addition, Russia will gain access to the mechanism for resolving trade conflicts and the right to participate in the development of new rules for international trade.

It is also necessary to mention the creation of better conditions for integration within the CIS, strengthening the role of the Federation in relations with the subjects on economic issues, creating optimal starting conditions for starting negotiations on Russia's accession to the Common European Economic Space.

At the same time, it should be taken into account that for potential Russian partners in the WTO, the benefits from Russia's accession to this organization are realized almost immediately, and for Russian manufacturers - over a rather long period of time 0 .

All members of the WTO assume obligations to implement the main agreements and legal documents, united under the name "multilateral trade agreements". Thus, from a legal point of view, the WTO system is a kind of multilateral contract, the rules and regulations of which govern over 92% of all world trade in goods and services. Russia's obligations in the event of accession to the WTO are partly contained in Russia's international agreements: the Partnership Agreement with the EU, the Energy Charter Treaty, agreements on the protection and promotion of investment. It should be noted that a significant part of these general obligations coincides with the norms of national legislation.

In addition, there are a number of additional obligations. They relate, for example, to “freezing” import tariffs and limiting agricultural subsidies. It is these commitments that are the subject of negotiations. The parties involved in the negotiations with Russia are discussing the level of tariff protection of the goods market and the level of protection of the services market.

The main problem of Russia's accession to the WTO is, first of all, the removal of restrictions on the supply of goods from abroad, in a sense, restrictions on competition from foreign companies. This will lead to the fact that domestic producers may not be able to compete on an equal footing with both very high-quality Western products and very cheap Chinese ones. Another thing is that this process will take place gradually (which is why such long negotiations are underway), and our enterprises will have time to adapt to new conditions.

Therefore, experts believe that, despite increased competition from foreign manufacturers when Russia joins the WTO, the impact of this event on the domestic industry will not be very significant or catastrophic, although each enterprise will have to take care of itself and increase the efficiency of its own work.

Conclusion

Foreign trade is the main form of world economic relations. In terms of dynamics and value indicators, it is ahead of the growth of world production, the movement of capital and other types of foreign economic relations, which is one of the most important characteristics of the modern world economy. The growth rates of international export-import operations exceed the growth rates of the main segments of world production, incl. industrial goods, minerals and agricultural products.

The increasing importance of trade in the world economy, as well as its intensive development, are due to the objective process of globalization and the increased interdependence of most countries of the world. Significant progress in the development of the international division of labor contributed to the intensification of world commodity exchange.

In the field of trade exchange, international regimes and multilateral agreements were developed within the framework of the WTO, an international organization operating on the basis of a multilateral agreement that establishes the principles and rules of world trade. The activities of the WTO are aimed at the liberalization of export-import operations and, in particular, at the reduction and elimination of tariff and non-tariff barriers.

The significant liberalization of the foreign trade policy of the developing countries, the expansion of the scale of trade between them, and, in addition, the preservation of a favorable conjuncture in the markets of industrial products in many developing and developed industrial countries, contributed to a further increase in international trade. The revolution in the field of information technologies and means of communication.

In recent years, there have been significant changes in the structure of world trade. In particular, the share of communication and information technology services has increased significantly, while the share of trade in commodities and agricultural products has been declining.

Certain changes are also taking place in the geographical distribution of world trade. The trade of developing countries is gradually growing, but the volume of goods flows from the newly industrialized countries is growing at an especially rapid pace.

Among the countries with economies in transition, China's foreign trade is developing more dynamically, which allowed the country to enter the top ten largest trading powers in the world. At the same time, there is still a significant part of the world trade turnover - about a third of the world's export-import operations are accounted for by the leading industrialized countries (USA, Germany and Japan). France, Great Britain, Italy, Canada, the Netherlands, and Belgium are among the largest trading countries in the world.

Today, the question of the place that we want to occupy in the emerging world order is becoming more and more obvious. The question of Russia's place requires an answer to two other questions: what are the contours of the emerging world order and what is the country's "starting position" for participation in world processes. Both the scenario of a constructive inclusion of the post-industrial world in the new cooperation, and the transformation into an outsider country, one of the leaders of resistance to globalization, are possible. In many ways, the choice depends on Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Today, there are two extreme points of view on the problem of the country's accession to the WTO. Supporters of liberalism insist on immediate accession to the WTO on any terms. Supporters of protectionism argue that Russian business today is uncompetitive and entry into the WTO will stifle domestic enterprises.

1) the reduction of restrictions in international trade will lead to cheaper imports, which is beneficial both for Russian enterprises using imported raw materials and components, and for Russian citizens purchasing imported goods;

2) the possibility of legal protection of domestic producers under the laws of the World Trade Organization;

3) the opening of the economy and the stabilization of Russian foreign trade and general economic legislation will contribute to the development of international economic relations and the investment process in Russia;

4) Russian enterprises - exporters will have more opportunities for access to foreign markets sales.

However, when joining the WTO, difficulties may arise:

1) some sectors (agriculture, aviation industry) and individual enterprises may not be able to compete with foreign enterprises, unemployment will increase, production will decline;

2) it will be difficult for Russian banks to compete with foreign commercial banks, which have large and relatively cheap resources (interest on deposits and, accordingly, loans abroad is much lower than in Russia);

3) there will be difficulties in maintaining the Customs Union with the CIS countries, since this is in conflict with the WTO charter;

4) the ability of the state to regulate foreign economic activity will decrease;

5) the weakening of direct state regulation of domestic energy prices can lead to a significant increase in production costs and a drop in the competitiveness of domestic enterprises.

An analysis of the potential benefits and threats of Russia's accession to the WTO allows us to draw the following conclusions:

1) it is necessary to ensure an overall positive quantitative and qualitative balance of national interests;

2) bankruptcy of individual branches of the national economy must not be allowed;

3) it is advisable to provide a mechanism for protecting the national financial and banking system;

4) a sharp increase in energy prices should not be allowed, as required by the WTO negotiators;

5) it is necessary to coordinate the activities of all levels of government to prepare the Russian economy for accession to the WTO.

Bibliography

1. Forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2004 and the main parameters of the forecast up to 2006, Moscow, July 2003

2. Galitskaya S.V. "Money. Credit. Finance" - M.: "Exam", 2004 - 224 p.

3. Lizogub A.N., Simonenko V.I. "Economic theory" - M.: "Prior-izdat", 2004 - 128 p.

4. Makeeva T.V. "Macroeconomics" - M .: "Exam", 2004 - 128 p.

5. Economics in Questions and Answers, ed. I.P. Nikolaeva - M .: TK Velby, Prospekt Publishing House, 2004 - 336 p.

6. Simonov Yu.F., Nosko B.P., Guiliano A.A. "The World Economy and International economic relations"- Rostov n / a: "Phoenix", 2004 - 160 p.

7. I.Z. Farkhutdinov, "Globalization and Geoeconomics: New Legal Paradigms of the World Order", "Legislation and Economics", No. 4, April 2004

9. D.A. Komolov "Pros and cons of joining the WTO, interview with Alexei Kudrin" The Russian economy: XXI century, April 2001

10. Website of the World Trade Organization http://www.wto.ru

Application

Multilateral agreements on trade in goods within the WTO

0 I.Z. Farkhutdinov, "Globalization and Geoeconomics: New Legal Paradigms of the World Order", "Legislation and Economics", No. 4, April 2004

0 Simonov Yu.F., Nosko B.P., Guiliano A.A. "World Economy and International Economic Relations" - p.80

0 Galitskaya S.V. "Money. Credit. Finance" - p. 87

0 "Economics in questions and answers" ed. I.P. Nikolaeva - p. 233

0 Makeeva T.V. "Macroeconomics" p.91

0 Forecast of the socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for 2004 and the main parameters of the forecast up to 2006, Moscow, July 2003 - p. 101

0 World Trade Organization website http://www.wto.ru

0 Lizogub A.N., Simonenko V.I. "Economic theory" - p.87

0 D.A. Komolov "Pros and cons of joining the WTO, interview with Alexei Kudrin" The Russian economy: XXI century, April 2001

The totality of indicators of the development of international trade can be divided into seven groups:

1. volume (absolute) indicators,

2. resulting,

3. structural,

4. intensity,

5. efficiency,

6. speakers

7. comparisons

1. Volumetric (absolute) indicators

Export- the cost or natural volume of exported goods, works, services, results of intellectual property from the customs territory of the state abroad.

The fact of export is the moment of crossing the customs border.

The United Nations Statistical Commission defines export as the export of goods from the state:

1) produced, grown or mined in the country;

2) previously exported from abroad and processed in the customs territory or under customs control;

3) re-export - export of goods:

Previously exported, but not processed;

From the territory of free zones;

From assigned warehouses.

Import- the cost or natural volume of goods, works, services, results of intellectual property imported into the customs territory of the state.

The United Nations Statistical Commission understands import as the importation into the state of goods:

1) foreign origin from the country of origin or intermediary for the purpose of final consumption or processing for export or final consumption;

2) for processing under customs control;

3) from the territory of free zones and affiliated warehouses;

4) re-import - the export of goods previously exported, but not processed.

Country of export- country of origin of goods: production (subsequent processing), shipment, sale.

Country of import- the country of destination of the goods (consumption, supply, purchase).

The volume of export and import goods does not include:

1) supplies that are carried out on a free basis (humanitarian aid, gifts);

2) goods that are supplied on account of contributions to the UN technical assistance fund, etc. international organizations;

3) the cost of goods in transit;

4) personal luggage individuals and private parcels.

Foreign trade turnover- the sum of the value of exports and imports of countries or a group of countries for a certain period.

WTO \u003d E + I (6.1)

Where E is the volume of exports (in value units);

And - the volume of imports (in cost units).

World trade- the sum of the value of imports and exports of all countries in the world.

General (general) trade- foreign trade turnover, taking into account the cost of transit goods.

GT = E + I + T(6.2)

where T is the cost of transit goods transported through the territory of the country.

Physical volume of foreign trade– assessment of exports or imports of goods at constant prices of one period (1 year) to obtain information on the movement of commodity mass without the influence of price changes.

Physical volume index:

where I f.o. – physical volume index;

P 0 - the price of goods in the base period;

q 1 - the amount of goods in the period that is being studied;

q 0 - quantity of goods in the base period.

2. Result indicators:

Trade balance

C t \u003d E t - And t (6.4)

where С t is the trade balance;

E t - the value of commodity exports;

And m is the cost of commodity imports.

If E > I - active balance, if E< И - пассивный баланс, Э = И – чистый баланс, нетто-баланс.

Import export coverage index

I e / i \u003d (6.5)

I e / i< 100 - торговый баланс пассивный, I э/и >100 - active trading balance.

Terms of trade index- the ratio of export and import prices of a certain product, country as a whole, group of countries.

1. The export price index is calculated:

where P e is the export price index;

x i is the share of each i-th product in the total value of exports in the base year;

p i is the ratio of the current export price of this product to its price in the base year.

2. The import price index is calculated:

where P and is the import price index;

j is the share of each i-th product in the total value of imports in the base year;

p j is the ratio of the current import price of this product to its price in the base year.

3. The terms of trade index is calculated:

I = , (6.8)

where I c.t. – index “terms of trade”;

P e - export price index (in units of national or other currency);

P and is the import price index.

If I ut =1 - the terms of trade have not changed, I ut > 1 - the terms of trade have improved, I ut< 1- условия торговли ухудшились.

Export concentration index (Hirschman index) and used for international comparisons. Shows how wide range of goods the country exports:

(6.9)

where H j is the export concentration index of country j (j is the index of the country);

239 - the number of types of products according to the UN classification;

i – product index (from 1 to 239);

x i is the value of exports of i-th goods by country j;

x is the total export value of country j, which is calculated using the formula:

If H tends to 0, then the trend is positive (a wide range of goods is exported); If H tends to 1 - a negative trend, a narrow range of exports.

The country's import dependence coefficient:

where AND ij is the volume of imports of the i-th product to the country j;

P ij is the volume of consumption of the i-th product in the country j.

(6.12)

where P ij is the volume of production of the i-th product in the country j;

And ij is the volume of imports of the i-th product in country j;

Eij is the volume of exports of the i-th product in the country j.

If P ij tends to 0 - an import-independent country; P ij tends to 1 - an import-dependent country.

Net trade index shows for each of the goods (product group) the level of excess of exports over imports (positive index value) or the level of excess of imports over exports (negative index value).

(6.13)

where I h.t. – indicator of net trade;

E i - export of goods i;

And i is the import of product j.

If I h.t. = -1 - the goods are only imported, I h.t. = +1 - goods are only exported.

3. Structural indicators

In international practice, they analyze the geographical and commodity structure.

Geographic structure- the distribution of trade flows between individual countries and their groups, allocated on a territorial or organizational basis.

Territorial structure- generalization of data on international trade of countries of one part of the world or an enlarged group of countries (industrial, developing).

Organizational structure– distribution of international trade:

Between countries belonging to an integration association;

Between the countries identified in certain group in accordance with the analytical criterion (oil exporting countries, grains, net debtors)

Commodity structure- distribution of trade flows for individual goods. Based on the Standard international classification UN (SMTC) or Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System.

Distinguish:

commodity structure export - a systematized set of goods that are exported from the country, region.

The commodity structure of imports is a systematized set of goods that are imported into a country, region.

The directions of systematization of commodity flows are presented in fig. 6.3.

Figure 6.3 - Systematization of commodity flows in the world market

Export diversification index– index of deviation of the export structure from the structure of world exports.

(6.14)

where I d.e. is the export diversification index of country j;

h ij - part of the i-th product in the total export of country j;

h i - part of the i-th product in total world exports.

If I d.e. tends to 1, then the structure is close to the world average, if I d.e tends to 0, then it differs significantly from the world.

Index of geographical concentration of exports or imports characterizes the state of the world market for a particular product on the following grounds: the number of exporters (importers) and the share of the main exporter (importer).

Herfindahl-Hirschman index:

(6.15)

where I k is the index of geographical concentration of exports (imports) of goods k;

x i k is the volume of exports (imports) of goods k by country i;

x k – world export (import) of goods k (x k = );

n is the number of exporting (or importing) countries.

The indicator grows as the share of one exporter grows (shows the level of market monopolization).

4. Intensity indicators

The volume of exports, imports, foreign trade turnover per capita:

(6.18)

where E D is export per capita;

I D - import per capita;

WTO D - foreign trade turnover per capita;

E - the value of national exports for the year;

I - the cost of national imports for the year;

WTO - foreign trade turnover of the country for the year (E + I);

P - the population of the country for the corresponding year.

export quota and is used to characterize the level of intensity of the country's foreign trade, to assess the openness of the national economy, participation in the international division of labor.

(6.19)

where K e - export quota;

E is the country's annual export volume;

K e is greater, the more developed the industry, K e in large countries is less than in small ones.

If K e >1, this may be due to significant re-exports.

World exports Ke » 20-23%, developed countries Ke »< 20-23%, развивающиеся страны К э » > 20-23%.

Import quota:

(6.20)

where K i – import quota;

I is the country's annual export volume;

GDP is the country's gross domestic product for the same period.

Foreign trade quota:

, (6.21)

where К wto is the foreign trade quota;

GDP is the country's gross domestic product for the same period.

International commodity trade develops unevenly over periods, both in goods and in participating countries. The development of international trade, its growth rates (dynamics) are influenced by many factors that can be short-term and long-term, economic and political, internal and external. The combination of these factors forms the world supply and demand in the world market, world prices and the scale of commodity flows between countries.

Among the economic factors that determine the development of international commodity trade, great importance have changes in the conditions of production in the countries participating in international trade: expansion of production volumes and diversification of products, reduction in the costs of material production; increasing labor productivity based on the introduction of new technologies, accelerating obsolescence and quickly updating the assortment, etc.

The expansion and diversification of world trade is facilitated by the deepening of the international division of labor, especially on the basis of intra-industry vertical specialization. Material production is increasingly becoming cross-border; manufacturing final product distributed between different countries where the raw material is processed sequentially and/or different parts and components are produced that form global value chains.

According to the OECD, in 2005, the share of national products in the cost of the final products of office, computing and computer equipment in Japan was 81.5; and 51.2%. In the structure of Japan's intermediate products, the share of domestic products was 75.7%, of imported products - 24.3%; China - 59.8 and 40.2%; Republic of Korea 36.4 and 63.6% respectively.

In 2012, world exports of intermediate goods amounted to $7.6 trillion (42.0% of world merchandise exports), imports - $7.8 trillion (42.7%). China's export of intermediate goods amounted to $819; EU-28 - 2614 and 2454 billion dollars, including in external export/import, excluding mutual (domestic) trade - 981 and 855 billion dollars, respectively.

The international migration of capital has a great influence on the dynamics of world trade; liberalization of foreign trade; development of integration processes accompanied by an accelerated mutual exchange of goods, services and production factors; changes in exchange rates, etc.

The dynamics of international trade in the medium term is determined by the phase of the world economic cycle; in the short term - by the situation in the world commodity markets, the economic growth rates of the GDP of the main exporting and importing countries. In the context of economic recovery, great opportunities are opening up for the expansion of international trade.

The production and export of goods is growing; the demand for imports of energy carriers, investment and raw materials is increasing. Employment growth is accompanied by an increase in household income and consumer demand, including for imported products. In a recession in the world economy, which means a slowdown in GDP growth, or in a crisis, when growth rates are negative, world demand, world prices, export/import growth rates are declining, unemployment is growing, consumer demand is declining, etc.

The change in exports and imports of goods of individual countries is affected by the movement of export and import prices and changes in physical volume. The development of international trade is usually analyzed on the basis of current prices expressed in dollars. In current prices, the value of exports/imports of goods in the corresponding year is determined; these prices determine export earnings and import payments. The level of current prices is determined by contract prices, which in turn are formed taking into account world prices.

World commodity prices are influenced by reference prices for goods of developed countries, exchange quotations, prices of auctions and trades, prices of actual transactions, prices of offers of large firms. World prices for manufactured products reflect the export prices of large manufacturing companies and exporters, which are usually calculated at domestic prices using the method total costs; prices for metals are regulated by exchange quotations, for furs - by the prices of fur auctions.

International trade is developing unevenly, which is manifested in a change in the balance of power in the world commodity market between the main groups of countries. The share of developed countries in world exports of goods was 71% in 1970, 63% in 1980, 71.3% in 1990, 74.2% in 2000, 64.8% in 2007, and 64.8% in 2012. 57.6%. In the development of international trade in the 1950s-2000s. ten-year periods can be distinguished.

IN 1950 1960s international trade developed relatively evenly, with increasing rates, which, on an average annual basis, amounted to 7%; in the first half of the 1960s. - 8.4%, in the second half of the decade - 11.8%; prices have been relatively stable. There were significant differences in growth rates across regional groups and individual countries. For the 1950-1960s. exports of developed countries in permanent chains increased 2.8 times, in Japan - 11 times, Germany - 5 times, the USA - 1.6 times; developing countries - 3.6 times, Taiwan - almost 13 times, South Korea - 5.4 times.

1970s characterized by a multiple increase in world prices, especially for raw materials. From the autumn of 1973, world prices for oil, and then for other types of raw materials, went up sharply. The second sharp jump in oil prices occurred in 1979. These price jumps are called "oil shocks", which were provoked not so much by economic as by political reasons. Due to the conflict with Israel, Arab countries have reduced oil supplies to countries that supported Israel. The supply of oil on the world market decreased, a shortage arose, oil prices went up sharply, dragging the prices of other types of mineral and agricultural raw materials with them.

The prices of industrial goods increased mainly due to high inflation in developed countries, but to a lesser extent than the prices of raw materials; and the terms of trade index was in favor of commodity exporters. From 1970 to 1980, world prices for all goods increased 3.7 times, including finished goods- 2.9 times, machinery and equipment - 2.4 times. Prices for all types of raw materials increased 7 times, for agricultural raw materials - 3.1 times, for fuel - 16.5 times, for oil - almost 20 times.

As a result, in the 1970s world exports in terms of value in current prices increased 6.3 times, in terms of physical volume (in 2000 prices) - 1.7 times; world imports - by 6.2 and 1.7 times, respectively. Exports of developed countries at current prices increased 5.6 times, at constant prices - 1.5 times; developing countries - in terms of value in current prices, it increased 10 times, in constant prices - 2.2 times.

In the 1970s in the group of developing countries, differentiation took place: rich oil exporters with excess foreign exchange earnings and a rapidly developing export-oriented four of the new industrializing countries of Southeast Asia (Hong Kong, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan) appeared. Over the decade, the exports of OPEC member countries increased 17 times, their share in world exports exceeded 15%; R/V SUA-4 managed to increase the export deliveries of finished products by 11.5 times and raise the total share in world exports to 2.8%.

1970s were favorable for the Soviet Union and other CMEA member countries; their export earnings and import payments increased by 5 times. By 1980, the USSR's foreign exchange earnings from the export of oil and other types of mineral raw materials increased 6 times, import costs - 5.8 times; exports covered imports by 111.6%.

At first 1980s there was a landslide decline in world prices, the level of 1980 recovered only by the end of the decade. Commodity-exporting countries have been hardest hit; prices for raw materials at the end of the decade were below the level of 1980 by 28-30%. Prices for oil and mineral fuels fell by half by the mid-1980s, by 1990 they had reached 70% of the 1980 level.

An absolute decline in world trade was observed until 1984, and only by 1986 was the level of 1980 restored. world exports and imports increased equally - 1.7 times in current prices. Exports of developed countries increased almost 2 times, imports - 1.8 times; the corresponding figures for developing countries were 1.4 and 1.7 times. Over the decade, the exports of the CMEA member countries increased by 25%, imports - by 29%; Soviet exports in terms of physical volume increased by 35%, imports - by 75%, the trade balance of the USSR in 1990 was negative in the amount of 6.3 billion dollars.

Behind 1990s world exports increased 1.9 times (in 2000 prices - 1.5 times). Two periods can be distinguished in this decade: before and after the Asian monetary and financial crisis (1997-1998). From 1990 to 1997, world trade increased by an average of 7-8% per year; in 1998-1999 - by 4-5%. The following factors had a great impact on the development of world trade:

• a long economic recovery in the US that lasted from the beginning of the decade until 2000; during this time, American exports increased 1.9 times (in constant prices - by 37%);
• monetary and financial crises in Mexico (1994), Argentina (1995), recession in Brazil (1998);
• the Asian monetary and financial crisis of 1997, which engulfed Indonesia, Malaysia, the Republic of Korea, Thailand, the Philippines, and the crisis in Russia (1998).

For the 1990s there were no absolute drops in the total exports/imports of developed countries; exports increased almost 2 times, imports - 1.7 times. The crisis of 1997 slowed down the expansion of exports of developed countries, in 1998 the growth rate was 0.8%; in 1999 -1.8%.

For 1991 -1997 the average annual growth rate of merchandise exports of developing countries amounted to 10-11%; in 1998 - minus 6.1%, in 1999 - plus 8.2%. Prior to 1997, developing countries' imports increased annually by 8%; in 1998 it was minus 4.7%; - minus 0.4%. Commodity export of the CIS countries for 1997-1999. decreased by 17.5%, import - by 62.2%; countries of Central and Eastern Europe amounted to plus 8.7 and 0.5%, respectively.

• ITO, International Trade Statistics. 2014. R. 145.
• IMF, International Financial Statistics, Yearbook, 2009.