The concept of market conditions and its characteristics. Market conditions and its research The concept of market conditions and its indicators
1. Market conjuncture: basic concepts, analysis and forecast. The main indicators of market conjuncture.
2. Marketing logistics: concept, goals, functions. The tasks of the manager to coordinate the distribution of goods. The concept of integrated logistics management.
4. Select the signs of segmentation of consumers of the retail network: "Sela", "L" etual, shopping center "Russia", "Eldorado", "Crossroads".
Market conditions.
The general goal of market research is to determine the conditions under which the most complete satisfaction of the population's demand for goods of this type is ensured and the prerequisites are created for the effective marketing of manufactured products. In accordance with this, the primary task of studying the market is to analyze the current supply and demand ratio, i.e. market conditions.
Market conditions are the set of conditions under which this moment activity in the market. It is characterized by a certain ratio of supply and demand for goods of this type, as well as the level and ratio of prices.
Three levels of market research are considered: general economic, sectoral and commodity.
An integrated approach to the study of market conditions involves:
use of various, complementary sources of information;
a combination of a retrospective analysis with a forecast of buyers that characterize the market situation; aggregate application various methods analysis and forecasting.
When studying the market situation, the task is not only to determine the state of the market at one time or another, but also to predict the likely nature of its further development, at least for one or two quarters, but not more than one and a half years, that is, forecasting.
A market forecast is a scientific prediction of the prospects for the development of demand, product supply and prices, carried out within the framework of a certain methodology, based on reliable information, with an assessment of its possible error.
The market forecast is based on taking into account the patterns and trends of its development, the main factors determining this development, observing strict objectivity and scientific conscientiousness when evaluating data and forecasting results.
IN general view The development of a market forecast has four stages:
Establishment of the object of forecasting;
Choice of forecasting method;
Forecast development process;
Assessment of forecast accuracy;
Establishing the object of forecasting is the most important stage of scientific foresight. For example, in practice, the concepts of sale and demand, supply and product offer, market prices and selling prices are often identified.
Under certain conditions, such replacements are possible, but with appropriate reservations and subsequent adjustment of the results of forecast calculations.
The choice of forecasting method depends on the purpose of the forecast, the period of its lead, the level of detail, and the availability of initial (basic) information. If a forecast of the possible sale of a product is made to determine the prospects for the development of retail trading network, then more rough, estimated forecasting methods can be used. If it is performed to justify the purchase of specific goods for the next month, then more accurate methods should be used.
The process of developing a forecast consists in carrying out calculations performed either manually or using a computer, followed by correcting their results at a high-quality, professional level.
The assessment of the accuracy of the forecast is carried out by calculating its possible errors. Therefore, the forecast results are almost always presented in interval form.
Market forecasts are classified according to several criteria.
In terms of lead time, the following are distinguished: short-term forecasts (from several days to 2 years); medium-term forecasts (from 2 to 7 years); long-term forecasts (more than 7 years). Naturally, they differ not only in the lead time, but also in the level of detail and forecasting methods used.
Market forecasts are distinguished on the basis of a commodity: a specific product, types of goods, product group, complex of goods, all goods.
On a regional basis, market forecasts are made for: specific consumers, administrative regions, large regions, countries, the whole world.
According to the essence of the methods used, there are groups of forecasts, the basis of which are:
Extrapolation of a series of dynamics (market capacity)
Interpolation of a series of dynamics - finding the missing members of a dynamic series inside it;
Demand elasticity coefficients;
Structural modeling - is a statistical table containing a grouping of consumers according to the most significant feature, where for each group the structure of consumption of goods is given. When the structure of consumers changes, the average consumption (and hence the demand) of these goods also changes. One of the forecasting methods is built on this basis;
Expert review. This method is used in the markets for new products, when the underlying information has not had time to form, or in the markets for traditional products that have not been explored for a long time. It is based on a survey of experts - quite competent specialists.
Economic and mathematical modeling;
The results of the analysis of predicted indicators of market conditions in combination with reporting and planned data make it possible to develop measures in advance aimed at developing positive processes, eliminating existing and preventing possible imbalances and can be provided in the form of various analytical documents.
Summary review, or report. The main document with generalizing indicators of the market, consumer goods. The dynamics of general economic and industry indicators is analyzed, special conditions conjuncture. A retrospective is carried out and a forecast of market indicators is given, the most characteristic trends are highlighted, and interrelations between the market conditions of individual markets are identified.
Thematic (problematic or commodity) review of the conjuncture. Documents reflecting the specifics of a particular situation or a particular market. The most actual problems, typical for a number of products, or a problem of a particular product market.
Operational (signal) market information. A document containing operational information, which is a kind of “signal”, about individual processes of market conditions. The main sources of operational information are data from trade correspondents, public opinion polls, expert opinions specialists.
Identification of cause-and-effect relationships in the market under study is carried out on the basis of systematization and analysis of data. Systematization of data consists in the construction of grouped and analytical tables, dynamic series of analyzed indicators, graphs, charts, etc. This is the preparatory stage of information analysis for its quantitative and qualitative assessment.
Processing and analysis is carried out using well-known methods, namely grouping, index and graphical methods, construction and analysis of time series. Causal relationships and dependencies are established as a result of the correlation-regression analysis of time series.
One of the main concepts of market research is the study of changes in the dynamics and ratio of prices. It is necessary to establish the reasons that caused the shift in the level or structure of the price. It is also necessary to analyze changes in production technology, conditions for the consumption of goods, taking into account changes in wholesale and retail trade. The study of these changes helps to better understand the direction of price movement. A number of different factors affect the prices and costs of producing goods.
The evaluation of this impact, i.e. taking into account the ongoing changes in the price level is carried out by analyzing the relevant indicators that determine the dynamics and price level of various goods. After getting an idea about the direction of development of the economy as a whole, one should proceed to the study of the development of those sectors of the economy that are the main consumers in this market. As a result of studies of changes in the volume and structure of consumption, an assessment is made of the development of the production of goods, the market conditions of which are being studied. An analysis of the development of consumption and production makes it possible to draw a conclusion about the change in the relationship between supply and demand, to determine the possible market capacity and the future price level.
Methods for studying the conjuncture of any commodity market, economy or industry are developed on the basis of indicators that can help determine the direction of development of production, trade and finance in the future. In these studies, an assessment is made of the relationship between supply and demand for the required period of time, the study of price fluctuations, the sale of goods and services, inventory, market sustainability assessment.
The main indicators of market conjuncture.
When studying market conditions, it is necessary to consider indicators that can quantify the various changes that occur in the economy of the industry under study.
The quantitative state of the conjuncture can be assessed using the following groups of indicators:
The volume and dynamics of production as a whole, the size of investments, the level of employment, the size of wages, order data. These are the so-called indicators of the sphere of production.
Effective demand, the size of the sale of goods on credit, data on retail and wholesale trade; the above refers to indicators of intra-regional trade.
Volumes, dynamics, geographical distribution of interregional relations, volumes of imports and exports, volumes of cargo transportation. This group of indicators belongs to the group of interregional and foreign economic relations.
Credit and money circulation. This group of estimates includes the prices of shares and other securities, interest rates, the size of bank deposits, exchange rates.
The main characteristic of market conditions is the degree of balance between supply and demand. It manifests itself in the behavior of prices, the speed of turnover of goods. This estimate allows you to determine the type of conjuncture.
The term conjuncture comes from the Latin word "conjungo" - "I connect, I connect." Market conditions, or market conditions, are a specific economic situation that has developed in the market at the moment or for some limited period of time, reflecting the current supply and demand ratio. Market conditions determine the commercial value and competitiveness of goods and services.
The concept of the market situation includes:
The degree of market balance (supply and demand ratio);
Formed, outlined or changed tendencies of its development;
The level of stability or fluctuations in its main parameters;
The scale of market transactions and the extent business activity;
Level of commercial (market) risk;
strength and scope competition;
The state and position of the market at a certain point in the economic or seasonal cycle.
In the economic literature, along with the above definition, there is another understanding of market conditions:
Market conditions are a set of conditions that determine the market situation.
Market conditions are the result of the interaction of various
factors (economic, social, natural) that determine the position of the firm in the market at any given time.
Market conditions - the current state of the economy
time, determined by changes in various economic indicators, etc.
Conjuncture-forming factors can be grouped as follows:
Permanent (changes in the conditions for the development of the economy of the country, region; the influence of monopolies; scientific and technical progress; the influence of the public sector of the economy; inflation). All these factors can be predicted with a relative degree of correctness and
predict.
Non-permanently acting (stochastic change in external
economic and political conditions, seasonality of production or
delivery of products; natural disasters, local conflicts;
influence of competitors, etc.). These factors are difficult to predict, and
they are taken into account (accepted) after the fact.
In the practice of marketing, there are: general economic conditions and the conditions of individual sectors of the economy or individual commodity markets. If the first characterizes the state of the country's economy as a whole for a given period of time, then the second studies current changes and fluctuations in the production and marketing of individual specific goods.
The solution of the segmentation problem ends with the selection of the target market. The choice of the target market must be given serious attention, since the effectiveness of all subsequent activities of the enterprise depends to a large extent on the choice made. Before making a decision on the choice of a particular market as a target, it is necessary to answer the following questions:
What are the needs and expectations of consumers?
Is the company able to meet them?
Can the firm do it better than its competitors?
Will she achieve her goals?
To do this, it is necessary to solve the following tasks:
Determine the potential of the local market segment that is characterized by its quantitative parameters, that is, capacity. It shows how many products and at what total cost can be sold on it, how many potential consumers are there, on what area they live, etc. The capacity of the market for industrial goods (machinery, equipment, technologies) is estimated by analyzing development trends and investment policy industries that consume these products. In the absence of such information, market capacity can be determined by considering past sales trends and extrapolating them, adjusted to the current period. For example, a supplier of subassemblies needs to know the statistics of annual sales of products that include these subassemblies.
The process of creating strategies for selecting target markets and positioning consists of the following steps: market segmentation and subsequent analysis of consumer segments; selection of target segments; selection and implementation of a positioning strategy for each target segment. There are two main approaches to identifying target markets, the first of which is based on market segmentation, and the second is based on offering a wide range of products.
Factors influencing the choice of target markets include:
Market maturity stage;
The degree of diversity of consumer preferences;
Industry structure;
Capabilities and resources of the company itself;
W competitive advantage companies.
Segment materiality assessment involves determining how realistic a particular group of consumers can be considered as a market segment, how stable it is in terms of the main unifying features. It is necessary to find out whether the needs of the segment are stable in relation to the proposed product. Otherwise, you can get into a segment where competitors have a strong position, or offer a product with fuzzy, blurry address characteristics that will not be recognized by consumers. Target marketing is the selection of segments that best meet the needs of the company. The choice of the target market occurs in three enlarged areas.
The market as a complex socio-economic category can be characterized by numerous indicators, depending on the purpose of the study. Market analysis allows:
- determine the parameters of the market, identify the position of the enterprise on it;
- identify competitors in the industry and assess the level of competition;
- to study the need and demand of consumers for a product (service);
- study the product, its place in the market and the degree to which it satisfies the needs of customers;
- predict (simulate) the prospects of the product;
- determine the direction of activities in order to meet the changing needs of customers.
The market forecast presents possible options changes in the structure and volume of consumption, which are compared with estimates of the development of the production of goods, which makes it possible to obtain forecasts of sales, demand, supply and the relationship between them.
When compiling a market forecast as part of a general marketing forecast, information is used from a variety of analytical marketing research(environment, consumer, product, enterprise).
Market analysis
Conjuncture, market conditions - the economic situation in the market, characterized by the levels of supply and demand, market activity, prices, sales volumes.The position on the market depends on the market conditions, i.e. from the state of supply and demand. In order to understand the market situation, it is necessary to define market conditions.
Market conditions - the current economic situation, including the relationship between supply and demand, the movement of prices and inventories, the portfolio of orders by industry and others economic indicators. In other words, market conditions are a specific situation that has developed on the market at the moment, or a limited period of time, as well as a set of conditions that determine this situation.
The main purpose of studying the market situation is to establish to what extent the activity of industry and trade affects the state of the market, its development in the near future, and what measures should be taken to better satisfy the demand of the population for goods, to use the available goods more rationally. manufacturing enterprise possibilities. The results of studying the market conditions are intended for making operational decisions on managing the production and marketing of goods.
An integrated approach to the study of market conditions involves the use of various, complementary sources of information; a combination of a retrospective analysis with a forecast of indicators characterizing the market situation; application of a combination of different methods of analysis and forecasting.
The study of market conditions is based on the analysis of indicators characterizing the production and supply of goods in this group, the volume and structure retail, commodity stocks in warehouses of the enterprise, in wholesale and retail trade.
When studying the market situation, the task is not only to determine the state of the market at one time or another, but also to predict the likely nature of its further development for at least one or two quarters, but no more than a year and a half. The results of the analysis of predicted indicators of market conditions in combination with reporting and planned data make it possible to develop measures in advance aimed at developing positive processes, eliminating existing and preventing possible imbalances.
By its nature, the forecast of market indicators is a short-term forecast. Its specificity lies in the fact that the accuracy of short-term forecasts increases in comparison with annual ones, and this accuracy decreases.
Tasks in the study of market conditions
- In a certain period of time, select specific and latest information from information sources throughout the market, namely, identify all competitors, study the range of products, study the pricing policy, determine the circle of people for whom your company will produce products, and other indicators.
- Systematize these indicators.
- To establish the strength and scale of the impact of the relevant conjuncture-forming factors, their relationship and interdependence and direction of action.
- To identify the activity of interaction of these factors in the near future to develop a forecast.
To analyze the market situation, a study is carried out:
- general economic situation in the country, region;
- commodity market conditions;
- demand;
- offers;
- trends in the development of supply and demand for a given product (service);
- development and satisfaction of needs for goods (services).
- the volume and dynamics of the gross national product, national income, production in the sectors of the national economy;
- investment size;
- the value of the average and real wages;
- number of employees in national economy and in industries;
- indicators of the state of the domestic market (commodity stocks, volume and structure retail trade etc.);
- dynamics of wholesale and retail prices, inflation indices;
- standards of living;
- dynamics of foreign economic activity;
- stock market indices;
- unemployment rate.
- consumer sector (population);
- industrial consumption;
- government consumption;
- export.
The volume of demand depends on the purchasing power of the population, which is determined by the level of real income, the conditions for obtaining loans, the amount of savings, the ratio between the costs of purchasing goods and services. The amount of funds of the population allocated for the purchase of goods is the volume of effective demand.
The market capacity of a particular product, i.e. the volume of goods consumed (purchased) for a certain period of time is defined as the volume of production, taking into account changes in the stocks of goods and the balance of exports and imports. When the demand for a product is not fully satisfied, the phenomenon of unsatisfied effective demand arises, which is not typical for market economy or manifests itself in the initial stages of the emergence of a new product on the market.
Market capacity can also be determined using data on realized demand or the volume of retail turnover of a given product. When conducting an analysis, it must be remembered that the cost indicators of demand include wholesale and retail margins on goods. Due to this cost analysis it is recommended to supplement it with an analysis of demand in physical terms (pieces, kilograms, liters), taking into account the structure of retail and wholesale prices, as well as their changes.
The volume of industrial consumption of the commodity market is determined by the value of consumer purchases. Among the factors can be noted general economic, sectoral, on-farm.
The volume of state consumption is determined by the state order for goods. The main factors in the development of this sector of the market are the needs of the state in this product and its financial capabilities.
The volume of exports of goods reduces the capacity of the market. Export values are recorded by government customs services, and data on them are published in statistical collections. Among the factors affecting export deliveries, the following should be noted:
- competitiveness of goods in the world market;
- foreign economic policy of exporting and importing countries;
- export opportunities of the exporting country.
Analysis of trends in the development of supply and demand in the market under study serves as a logical continuation of the previous stages of analysis. On this stage the main task is to identify trends in the dynamics of cost and natural meters of supply and demand, to determine the quantitative and qualitative factors that affect volume and structural changes supply and demand, compare the identified trends in the country's market with trends in other regions and other countries; determine the stage life cycle on which the item is located. The results of this analysis are a reflection of the process of satisfying the needs expressed by the buyers of the goods.
The study of the commodity market conjuncture ends with an analysis of the development and satisfaction of needs, in the process of which the development of a need expressed and satisfied by means of a product, the emergence of new varieties of it or, conversely, a decrease in need or its disappearance is monitored. In addition, the possibility of satisfying the need with the help of another product is being studied - a substitute, probably not yet on the market.
The tasks of researching needs are of a qualitative nature and are solved mainly through surveys of consumers and specialists - marketers, merchandisers, sociologists. The results of the analysis of the conjuncture of the commodity market, together with the forecast of the general economic situation, become the basis for the development of a market forecast.
The concept of conjuncture
With the help of market conditions, the competitiveness of the company's products and services is determined. The market environment includes:
- Corresponding relations between supply and demand for certain products and their groups, as well as for commodity and money supply.
- A specific economic situation that develops in the market at a certain point in time or period. This situation is able to reflect the current relationship between supply and demand.
- The result of the interaction of some factors, including economic, social, natural. This interaction determines at a certain point in time the position of the enterprise in the market.
- The state of the economy at a particular point in time, which corresponds to changes in various economic indicators.
If we consider the conjuncture of a single market, then it is necessary to take into account the interaction and mutual influence of other markets. Each market is in close relationship with the general economic situation in the state and region. For this reason, the analysis of a particular market must be based on an assessment of the overall economic situation in the country as a whole. The market situation is investigated and involves the analysis of market indicators, including market capacity, market saturation level, market share of the enterprise, indicators of demand for products, indicators of the situation, which reflects the supply of products on the market.
Features of the conjuncture
Remark 1
Market conditions include a system of conditions that determine the market situation at the appropriate time. Favorable, high market conditions are characterized by a balanced market, growing sales, equilibrium prices.
Unfavorable, low market conditions are characterized by signs of market imbalance, lack or decrease in demand, sharp fluctuations in prices, sales crisis, shortage of goods.
Experts do not distinguish a clear boundary between these definitions, while each state is characterized by certain quantitative characteristics of the conjuncture.
In the course of assessing the market situation, specialists and experts can rely on certain market indicators, among which are the price, inventory, and business activity indicator. These indicators can be expressed both in absolute and relative terms. Markets cannot be judged by only one specific indicator, they must be taken into account in a complex.
Market indicators
Market indicators include:
- The relationship between supply and demand,
- market development trends,
- the degree of stability or instability of the market,
- the scale of market transactions, including the degree of business activity,
- the level of commercial risks,
- strength and scope of competition,
- the existence of a market in a certain phase of the cycle, both economic and seasonal.
These market characteristics can be subjected to quantification, so they are the subject of statistical study. The subject of market conjuncture statistics are mass processes and phenomena that determine a certain state of the market situation. Such indicators can be quantitatively and qualitatively assessed.
Among the subjects of market research, the following can be distinguished:
- commercial and market structures,
- government bodies,
- public institutions,
- scientific organizations.
The main task of market statistics is to collect and process market information, characterize the scale of the market, assess and analyze the main proportions, identify development trends, analyze seasonality and cyclicality of market development, assess regional market differences, business activity, commercial risks.
Remark 2
In order to implement the tasks of the market situation, an appropriate system of indicators was developed, which includes: indicators of the supply of products and services, consumer demand for products and services, market proportionality, development prospects, cyclical stability, regional differences, business activity, commercial risk, monopolization, competition.
Indicators of the supply of products and services include determining the volume, structure and dynamics of the supply, including its potential (production raw materials), elasticity.
The indicator of consumer demand for products and services includes an analysis of the volume, dynamics and degree of satisfaction of demand, including the elasticity of demand, as well as consumer potential and market capacity.
The proportionality indicator of the market determines the relationship between supply and demand, between the markets for means of production and markets for consumer goods, the structure of trade, the distribution of the market among consumers, retailers and wholesalers. Also, the proportionality of the market determines the distribution of the market of sellers in accordance with the forms of ownership, the regional structure of the market, the structure in accordance with various consumer characteristics (income level, age).
Among the indicators of the prospects for the development of the market, one can single out the growth rates and growth in sales, inventory, prices, investments, and profits. It also includes sales trend parameters, prices, profits and investments.
The indicator of business activity includes the number, size, frequency and dynamics of transactions, the workload of production and trading capacity, the composition, fullness and dynamics of the portfolio of orders.
Indicators of commercial risks include the risk of market fluctuations, investment risk, the risk of making marketing decisions.
Among the indicators of the level of monopolization and competition, one can single out the level of privatization, the division of the market, the distribution of enterprises in accordance with the size of the volume of production, sales and marketing, the number of enterprises in the market for each product, including their distribution depending on the form of ownership, organizational forms and specialization.
The opportunistic market depends on the action of factors, the main of which are: consumer cash income, commodity prices, the ratio of supply and demand for securities, their profitability.
Market conditions determine the commercial value and competitiveness of goods, the possibility and economic feasibility of buying and selling, the choice of potential and actual exporting countries (importers) and counterparty firms, and the search for a favorable moment to enter the market, the forms and methods of this entry.
The change in market conditions is determined primarily by the nature and level of development of the economy, but it is also influenced by such factors as the seasonal nature of the production and consumption of a number of goods. All factors influencing market conditions are classified into permanent and temporary (according to the frequency of their impact), stimulating the development of the market or restraining it. Market conditions are studied using indicators that allow us to quantify the changes taking place on it and determine their development trends. Such indicators are usually systematized into the following groups:
- dynamics of production, main producing firms, the emergence of new products, loading production capacity, the dynamics of investment in this industry, the movement of the portfolio of orders, the dynamics of production costs, the number of employed and unemployed, the impact of strikes on the volume of production and the increase in the wage bill, the movement of the price of securities, etc.;
- dynamics and structure of supply and demand, the impact of scientific and technological progress on the level of consumption and requirements for the quality of goods, the dynamics of wholesale and retail, market capacity (the volume of goods sold on it during a certain time), the size of sales on credit, the movement of commodity stocks, the range of goods, cost of living indices, etc .;
- state international trade, its dynamics, the main countries - exporters and importers, new forms and methods of trade and after-sales service, etc.;
- dynamics of wholesale prices in the leading countries - producers and consumers of this product, export prices; the impact on prices of inflation, the dynamics of changes in prices for raw materials and energy carriers, changes in the exchange rate, the impact of monopolies on the price level, state regulation pricing, etc.
Conjuncture tasks:
- integration and differentiation of the market, typologies of the market situation and gradation of the state of the market;
- characteristics of the scale (type) of the market;
- assessment and analysis of the main proportions of development;
- identification, analysis and forecasting of development trends and sustainability of market processes;
- assessment of cyclicity and seasonality of development;
- assessment of rational differences;
- assessment of business activity;
- analysis of market monopolization and level of competition.
Notes
Wikimedia Foundation. 2010 .
See what "Market conditions" is in other dictionaries:
Market conditions- (Conjuncture of market, market situation) - the same as the situation on the market, a system of factors (conditions) characterizing Current state demand, supply, prices and the level of competition in the market as a whole or in its individual segments (See ... ... Economic and Mathematical Dictionary
market conditions- The same as the situation on the market, a system of factors (conditions) that characterize the current state of demand, supply, prices and the level of competition in the market as a whole or in its individual segments (See, for example, Investment market conditions). See also… … Technical Translator's Handbook
Market condition Dictionary of Russian synonyms ... Synonym dictionary
The situation developing in the market: the magnitude of supply and demand, the price level, sales volumes, etc. Dictionary of business terms. Akademik.ru. 2001 ... Glossary of business terms
FAVORABLE, upward situation on the market, characterized by the presence of active, fairly stable demand for market goods and services, the excess of demand over supply, an upward trend in price dynamics for the most representative … Economic dictionary
market conditions- Syn: The state of the market... Thesaurus of Russian business vocabulary
Market conditions- a set of conditions that determine at any given moment the relationship between supply and demand ... Terminological dictionary of a librarian on socio-economic topics
MARKET CONDITION- a set of conditions that determine at any given moment the state of supply and demand ... Dictionary of Career Guidance and Psychological Support
Market conditions- the relationship between supply and demand individual goods, and for the commodity mass as a whole, the prevailing conditions for the sale ... Dictionary of Economic Theory
MARKET CONDITION- - conditions of sale on the commodity market in the relevant period, depending on the ratio of supply and demand, price elasticity and other socio-economic and natural factors ... Concise Dictionary economist
Books
- Conjuncture of world commodity markets. Textbook and workshop for bachelor's and master's degrees, Kuznetsova G.V. practical work in area…
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