Solution of typical tasks. Analytical evaluation of the decision to accept an additional order at a price below the critical level It is necessary to determine the most profitable option

There are three investment options. In the first variant of 120 cases, the profit is 800 UAH. was obtained in 40 cases, profit 200 hryvnia. - in 80 cases. In the second option out of 180 cases, the profit is 600 UAH. was obtained in 100 cases, profit 450 hryvnia. - in 60 cases, profit 300 UAH. - in 20 cases. In the third option out of 100 cases, the profit is 300 UAH. was obtained in 50 cases, profit 260 hryvnia. - in 30 cases, profit 220 UAH. - in 20 cases.

Choose the most profitable investment option.

Solution.

To find the most profitable investment option, you need to find the expected profit using the formula for calculating the mathematical expectation:

For the first option, the probability of making a profit is 800 UAH. will be:

The probability of making a profit is 200 UAH. will be:

The sum of all probabilities for the first option is equal to one.

As a result, the expected profit for the first option will be equal to:

The expected profit for the second option will be equal to:

The expected profit for the third option will be equal to:

Conclusion: the most profitable investment option is the second option.

Task 2

The board of the automobile manufacturing company must strategic decision about the prospective profile of production. At the same time, there are four preference options: cars, trucks, minibuses, sports cars. Depending on the situation on the market, the experts determined the following profit indicators (table);

Based on the risk minimization rules - the pessimism-optimism criterion, the minimax risk rule and the Laplace rule, choose the most profitable strategy.

Solution.

Laplace criterion .

This criterion is based on the calculation of the mathematical expectation in the absence of the probability of occurrence of options - the arithmetic mean value is determined by the formula
:

Strategy 1.
c.u.

Strategy 2.
c.u.

Strategy 3.
c.u.

Strategy 4.
c.u.

Since the optimality criterion is the maximum value of the average expected value, the best strategy is the production of trucks.

Criterion of pessimism - optimism .

We accept that the probability of an event occurring at which the profit is minimal is 0.70, then the probability of an event occurring at which the profit is maximum is 0.30.

The expected value of profit is determined by the formula
:

for the passenger car production strategy:

for truck production strategy:

for the minibus production strategy:

for the sports car production strategy:

Since the highest value of the expected profit corresponds to the strategy for the production of trucks, then, based on this criterion, this strategy is optimal.

Minimax risk criterion .

To solve the problem according to the minimax risk criterion, it is necessary to determine the maximum value of the profit indicator for each option and subtract from it the corresponding values ​​for other options. The second step is to determine for each strategy the maximum value of the difference, i.e. lost benefit. The minimum value of the maximum values ​​of lost benefits will correspond to the optimal strategy.

Calculation of indicators of lost profit (c.u.)

Based on this criterion, the optimal strategy for the production of cars.

Task 3

The entrepreneur is faced with a choice as to how much to buy 400 or 500 units of goods. When purchasing 400 units, the purchase price is 90 UAH, and when purchasing 500 units. - 70 UAH. The entrepreneur will sell this product for 110 UAH. for a unit. The demand for the product is not exactly known: the probability of selling 400 and 500 units is initially estimated at 60: 40. All goods not sold on time can be returned at 30 UAH.

How many units of the product need to be purchased? What is the price of additional sales information?

Solution.

Profit from the purchase of 400 units of goods and the demand for goods in the amount of 400 units will be

Profit from the purchase of 400 units of goods and the demand for goods in the amount of 500 units will also be 8000 UAH.

The average expected profit for the purchase of 400 units of goods is determined by the formula for calculating the mathematical expectation:

The profit from the purchase of 500 units of the product and the demand for the product in the amount of 400 units will be:

Profit from the purchase of 500 units of the product and the demand for the product in the amount of 500 units will be

The average expected profit for the purchase of 500 units of goods is determined by the formula:

Data calculation

A risk-averse person would choose a purchase volume of 500 units. A risk-neutral person would choose a purchase volume of 500 units because the average expected profit is higher for a given purchase volume. A risk-averse person will also choose a purchase volume of 500 units of goods, since with any demand, the profit will be more (12,000 or 20,000 UAH) than 8,000 UAH. when purchasing 400 units of goods. At the same time, additional information about future demand is not needed. Let's confirm this with calculations.

The cost of additional information is defined as the difference between the expected return under certainty and the expected return under uncertainty.

The expected profit under certainty conditions (that is, when the volume of demand is precisely known - 400 or 500 units) will be .

The expected profit in the face of uncertainty will be 15200 hryvnia.

Cost of additional information: , i.е. information should not be purchased.

Task 4

By granting a loan to a firm, a forecast of possible losses and corresponding probabilities is made. Numerical data are presented in the table.

Initial data

Determine the expected amount of risk, that is, losses.

Solution.

The amount of risk (expected damage) is determined by the formula
:

those. the firm should not provide a loan, since the expected loss is 16 thousand hryvnia.

Investments, million rubles 20 10

Net profit, million rubles/year 9 5

The annual rate of depreciation of investments is 15%.

5 + 1.5 = 6.5 => the first option is more efficient

Determine the present value of 23 billion rubles to be spent in 3 years. During this period, interest accrued at a rate of 7% per annum.

23 * (1 + 0.07) 3 = 23 * 1.225 = 28.175 billion rubles. - the present value of 23 billion rubles.

Three versions of the invention have been developed for the production technology of the product. Calculate the best option according to the table. Calculations are made using the reduced cost method.

Solution. Using the reduced cost method, we determine the most

effective version of the present invention according to the following formula:

C - annual production costs of the product;

K - investments;

En - coefficient economic efficiency = 0,2

Option 1 - (13600 * 750) + 0.2 * 22500 = 14700 million rubles.

Option 2 - (14700 * 1150) + 0.2 * 27900 = 22485 million rubles.

Option 3 - (13700 * 2500) + 0.2 * 19700 = 38190 million rubles.

Conclusion: the most effective option proposed for use

inventions - this is option 1, that is, the lowest reduced costs.

Define: change total costs to create samples, change in total costs due to changes in the cost of creating one sample, change in total costs due to changes in the number of samples created, in absolute and relative terms.

The average cost of developing one sample in the base year amounted to 2200 thousand rubles, in the current year 2260 thousand rubles. The number of created images is 210 and 220, respectively.

Z 0 \u003d 2200 * 210 \u003d 462,000 thousand rubles.

Z 1 \u003d 2260 * 220 \u003d 497200 thousand rubles.

497200 / 462000 = 1,08 (108%)

The total cost of creating samples increased (497,200 - 462,000) by 35,200 thousand rubles. by 8%.

Cost index per sample: (2260 - 2200) * 220 = 13200 thousand rubles.

The number of created samples increased (220 - 210) by 10 units (220 / 210 = 1.05 (105%)) by 5%.

The cost of manufacturing 1 sample increased (2260 - 2200) by 60 thousand rubles.

(2260 / 2200 = 1.03 (103%)) by 3%.

The total cost of creating samples has changed as follows:

2200 * (220 - 210) \u003d 22,000 thousand rubles.

The total cost of creating samples increased by 35,200 thousand rubles compared to the base year. However, an increase in the cost of creating one sample by 60 thousand rubles. led to an increase in total costs by 13,200 thousand rubles. At the same time, an increase in the number of created samples by 10 units contributed to an increase in total costs by 22,000 thousand rubles.

Hence the general changes:

DZ \u003d 13200 + 22000 \u003d 35200 thousand rubles.

Topic 6. Personnel management of an innovative enterprise

By choosing one of the list of organizations:

medical clinic;

beauty saloon;

house of life;

• educational institution;

  a company that provides services for the design and repair of premises;

  Vet clinic;

  legal consultation;

  Fitness Centre,

or suggesting any other, at your discretion, develop the plot of an innovative game by following the sequence of actions:

define and formulate possible problem taking place in the selected organization within the following thematic fields:

"Improvement of the management system in the organization"

"Human Resource Development Management";

"Management of the introduction of new technologies";

"Development of new markets";

"Attraction of new sources of raw materials and resources";

formulate the goal of the innovative game, adequate to the problem;

select unambiguous criteria for assessing the effectiveness of an innovative game that do not require additional costs and time (criteria for achieving the goal of the game);

designate the main roles of the participants in the innovative game (describe who and what will do during the game);

list the main organizational forms assumed in the innovative game;

describe the course of the game (stages, steps in the game should be logically justified, they should be enough to play the game);

guess what additional effects the organization can get after the game ends.

Omsk machine-building plant.

"Development and implementation of a system for training and promotion of managers."

The plot of the innovative game:

The goals of the game are:

outline the main directions for improving the system for training the management personnel of the plant, the draft of such a system and a program for its further development and implementation;

to use the work of managers on solving this problem to teach them methods of collective decision-making, to increase the level of their managerial training;

determine the composition of the initiative group, which will continue to work on the system project after the end of the game.

To achieve all these goals, an innovative game is built as a special type of social technology, including programs for problem solving, research and development of participants and the entire organization. The innovative game program includes eight subprograms: developing innovative solutions, designing innovations, programming their implementation, education and training of participants, recreation of participants and organizers, research and organization of the game process. Each organizer implemented in the business game his own, compiled at the preparatory stage, work program, where all types of work to achieve substantive goals were identified and linked in time sequence. Each such work program (and there were four main and two auxiliary ones) contained specific stages in the movement of participants to solve the problem posed and the tasks of the organizer, a description of the tools and organizational forms work.

Game participants:

customers;

organizers;

researchers;

participants.

Customers are engaged in the development of solutions, design and programming of their implementation.

Members are chasing learning goals- master some new means of work, development of new means of work, self-development, development of the organization. The researchers included in the game carry out research on the organization.

The organizers of the game - along with all of the above, sets itself the specific goals of organizing constructive relations with all (and between all) groups for further joint activities, and also focuses on the constant enrichment and development of the entire system of goals in the game.

Organizational form: planning, design, research, training, implementation.

Making decisions. Development of an innovative solution for the organization of this problem.

Design. The solution obtained at the previous stage is deeply worked out and justified. This work is carried out in the form of design.

Programming. On this stage the development of organizational measures for the introduction of innovations is carried out, the results and consequences of the implementation of the project are determined, the factors that contribute to and hinder the implementation of the project are identified.

Education. The organizer in the course of the work suggests methods that have not yet been used by the participants - they learn to more effectively solve problems in the process of practical development and application of these methods. The next stage of learning is the creation of a situation of the need for independent development of new means and new points of view, positions.

Study. A complete study of the problem.

The main characteristic of such a complex system should be the level of its self-organization and self-development. The basis for assessing the readiness of leaders should be the results of his participation in group work to develop decisions. The management system should be based on the principles of command management, including both permanent management teams and specialized target (problem) groups. The management training system should operate at all levels of enterprise management. One of the main principles of training should be the principle of ensemble training (joint training of managers and their subordinates).

Participants receive the following advantages for use in further work: the opportunity to look at their work more broadly, not from a technocratic position, the means of conducting an in-depth analysis of the situation before making a decision, the means of assessing the consequences of their decisions, self-confidence, that a lot depends on them , understanding that organizational issues are the most important thing in the work of a leader, persuading the need to get rid of the psychological impact of turnover, increasing responsibility for decisions made, better understanding of others, oneself, situations, mastering the technology of group work and much more.

Conditions that necessitate the acceptance of such an order. Its feasibility study.

The need for acceptance additional order at a price below the cost of production may occur during a decline in production, if the company has not managed to form a portfolio of orders and its production capacities are not fully used.

Suppose that the production capacity of the enterprise is designed for the production of 100,000 products, the market price of which is 200 rubles. Fixed costs amount to 7200 thousand rubles. Variable costs per product - 90 rubles. Under such conditions, the cost of one product ( WITH), profit ( P) and break-even sales volume ( T) will be:

Thousand rub.

PC.

Due to the loss of sales markets, the plant's order book was reduced to 30,000 items. Permanent and variable costs in comparable prices remained at the same level. Calculate the cost of the product, profit and break-even sales volume in the changed situation.

rub.

P\u003d 30,000 × (200 - 90) - 7,200,000 \u003d -3900 thousand rubles.

PC.

This result is explained by the high proportion of fixed costs in the amount of revenue. With a decrease in sales, fixed costs became unsustainable for the enterprise.

To avoid losses, the company will look for a way out of this situation. And if at this time an offer is received from the customer for the production of products that require a slightly different technology and, accordingly, additional fixed costs, then the managers of the enterprise can accept such an order even at prices lower than critical level. Suppose the customer agreed to place an order for 50,000 items at a price of 180 rubles, which is below the market level. At the same time, the enterprise must additionally spend 160 thousand rubles on the design and technological preparation for the production of this batch of products.

Is it beneficial for the company? At first glance, it seems that it is not profitable, since the selling price is lower than the unit cost of production. In addition, additional costs for pre-production will be required.

We will make a feasibility study of the decision to accept an additional order on the following conditions:

rub.

P = 30,000 × (200 - 90) + 50,000 × (180 - 90) - 7,360,000 = 440 thousand rubles.

PC.

This proves that even under such unfavorable conditions, accepting an additional order is economically justified. An additional order allows you to significantly reduce the cost of a unit of production by increasing production volumes and get a profit instead of a loss.

18.10. Choice of machine and equipment options

Analytical and graphical methods of substantiating the variant of machines and equipment. Determining the amount of loss when choosing a non-optimal solution.

One of the ways to search for reserves to reduce production costs and increase profits is the selection and replacement of machinery and equipment. Assume that you can perform any operation or process using one of three equipment options.

It is necessary to determine at what volume of production it is more profitable to use one or another version of the equipment. To do this, you need to find the critical volume of production at which the costs for two equipment options will be the same. The solution can be produced analytically and graphically.

To find the critical volume of production (services) for two variants of the machine, the costs of one of them are equated to the costs of the other. So, the critical point for the first and second versions of the machine can be found by the equation

Similarly, the critical point of production volume for the second and third variants of the machine is determined:

5000 + 1x = 8000 + 0,5X; 0,5x = 3000; X= 6000.

Therefore, with an annual production volume of up to 3000 units. it is more profitable to use the first option of equipment, from 3000 to 6000 units. - the second, and over 6000 units. - the third option is more appropriate.

This solution can be found graphically (Fig. 18.5).

Rice. 18. 5. Comparative efficiency different types equipment

If the wrong option for solving the problem was chosen, then it is possible to calculate the losses of the enterprise in connection with this. For example, the annual production is 4000 units. It was decided to perform this operation using the third version of the machine. The amount of losses from the adopted technological solution will be the difference in costs for the second and third options:

(8000 + 0.5 × 4000) - (5000 + 1 × 4000) = 12,000 - 9000 = 3000 thousand rubles

So unreasonable technological solution led to losses in the amount of 3,000 thousand rubles.

18.11. Rationale for the make-or-buy decision

Analytical and graphical ways to choose between own production and acquisition. Determination of the amount of losses from making the wrong decision.

Minimizing costs and increasing profits is facilitated by optimizing the choice between own production and the purchase of components, spare parts, semi-finished products, services, etc. Marginal analysis can also be used to solve the "make or buy" problem.

For example, for the repair of equipment, appropriate parts are required. If they are made on their own, then fixed costs for the maintenance of equipment will amount to 200 thousand rubles. per year, and variable costs per unit of production - 100 rubles. Finished parts in unlimited quantities can be purchased for 150 rubles. for a unit. Which solution is more beneficial? To answer this question, it is necessary to equate the costs of both options.

The cost of purchased parts can be expressed as follows:

W= px,

Where R- the price of one part;

X- the required number of parts per year.

The cost of manufacturing parts will include fixed and variable costs:

Z \u003d a + bx.

Let us determine at what need for details the cost of their acquisition and production will coincide:

px= A+ bx,

150x= 200 000 + 100x,

50x = 200 000,

x = 4000 units

Calculations show that with an annual requirement of 4000 units. the cost of purchasing parts will coincide with the cost of their production. If you need more than 4000 units. per year is more economical own production, and with less need for the enterprise, it is more profitable to buy them (Fig. 18.6).

Rice. 18. 6. Rationale for the make-or-buy decision

For the final decision, one must take into account such factors as the capacity of the enterprise, product quality, fluctuations in volumes, the creation or reduction of jobs, etc.

18.12. Substantiation of the production technology option

Analytical and graphic methods of substantiation of the production technology option. Proof of the correctness of the chosen solution.

An important source of cost reduction and increased profit margins is the choice of the optimal production technology.

Option A. The company purchases parts, assembles finished products and then sells them. The costs in this case are: fixed - 400 million rubles. in year; variables -170 thousand rubles. per unit of production.

Option B. The company buys additional equipment that allows it to perform some technological operations in their own premises. At the same time, the costs will be: fixed - 925 million rubles, variable - 100 thousand rubles. rub. per unit of production.

Bond interest is included in fixed costs. The maximum possible production capacity for the two options is 10,000 items per year. The selling price of one product is 250 thousand rubles.

As you can see, the option A has higher variable costs but lower fixed costs. Higher fixed costs per option IN includes additional depreciation of new equipment and premises, as well as interest expense on bonds issued to raise funds for the purchase of equipment. The estimated production volume is not given. Maximum demand is limited production capacity 10,000 units Therefore, we can determine for each option the maximum profit and the threshold of profitability.

Option IN provides higher profit. However, with the first version of the technology, the profitability threshold is lower, which means that with an increase in demand, profit will be received faster. In addition, with small volumes of demand, the option A gives higher profits or lower losses.

If option A more profitable with small volumes of sales, and the option IN- for large volumes, there must be some point of intersection, in which both options have the same total profit with the same total sales volume. To find it, you can apply graphical and analytical methods.

The best way graphical solution of the problem - plotting the dependence of profit on the volume of sales for each option ( rice . 18. 7).

Rice. 18. 7. Rationale for the effectiveness of different technology options

1. With zero implementation marginal income equals 0, and the company incurs losses in the amount of fixed costs (option A -- 400 million rubles, option IN -- 925 million rubles).

2. With a sales volume of 10,000 units. profit has already been calculated. By option A it amounts to 400 million rubles, according to the option IN -- 575 million rubles

Using the graph, we determine the profitability threshold (break-even sales volume) and the maximum profit for each option. The figure shows that the profit for both options is the same with a sales volume of 7500 units, and with large volumes, the option IN becomes more profitable than A.

Analytical method of calculation. Let us assume that the volume of sales at which both options give the same profit is equal to X units. The total profit is the total contribution margin minus fixed costs, and the total contribution margin is the marginal income per unit of output multiplied by X units. Hence the profit is:

by option A - 80X -400 000;

by option IN - 150X - 925 000.

Taking into account the fact that with the volume of sales X units of profit are the same, we get:

80X- 400 000 = 150X - 925 000; 70X = 525 000; x = 7500 units

Proof.

Thus, option A is more profitable up to 7500 units. If it is expected that demand will exceed 7500 units, then it will be more profitable option B. Therefore, it is necessary to study and evaluate the demand for this type of product.

Every novice businessman thinks about how best to optimize their income.

After all, no one will ever agree to waste their time and money on a project that is obviously unpromising.

What areas of business today are the most relevant and profitable, always remains on the agenda.

What you need to know before opening

Factors to know before starting your own business:

1. Compose detailed plan expenses that will have to cover the initial cash investment.
2. Take into account the possibility of competition. For example, the less locality, the less competition, but at the same time, the less possible sales volume.
3. Choose the type of business in which the entrepreneur is most well versed.

Before choosing the scope of future activity, it is worth highlighting the key factors that determine its profitability:

• Time interval to return initially nested Money.
• The chosen business area must be characterized in great demand by consumers.
• Acceptable level of profitability. Profitability should increase in parallel with the volume of goods or services sold.
• Low price threshold, at which the purchase of materials and raw materials contribute to increasing profitability.
• Positive rate of return on assets.

Small businesses need minimum labor resources and cash. For example, you can gather friends and do cleaning of apartment premises, repairs. You can also open an inexpensive fast food, kiosk or bar.

Not so long ago, network marketing was in demand, operating on the principle of selling the goods or services produced directly to the consumer, bypassing intermediaries, which significantly reduced costs and increased profits.

A prime example network marketing is the space company Oriflame.

Most Profitable Small Business 2016

The vast majority of professional analysts agree that the most profitable and cost-effective type of business is construction, consumption and catering.

The most promising features are repair, installation and construction works. Profitability within such a business can reach 100 percent of the cost.

1. Beauty and health. No less profitable business area at all times has been beauty services. Everyone wants to be not only healthy, but also beautiful. Today, the business of providing beauty services is in demand and highly paid. People of all financial abilities and ages will always spend money on maintaining their health and beauty. That is why massage parlors and hairdressers are so popular.
2. Construction industry. As mentioned above, one of the most profitable types of business in Russia is the construction and installation work. This is explained primarily by the growth of the real estate market and the coverage of a wide range of activities. One of the advantages of this type entrepreneurial activity is the minimum monetary threshold. For example, if the funds to open construction company is not enough, then you can form a team of professionals, and gradually expand the list of services it provides. If you have significant funds, you can safely build real estate.
3. Trade in food products. Equally in demand and profitable is the satisfaction of the primary human needs - food. It is best to start trading in residential area, which does not yet have any outlets capable of exerting any significant competitive impact. In the absence of large investment opportunities, you can open a small stall, gradually expanding the range and, as a result, sales. Having collected enough money, you can safely open a grocery store or a small restaurant. The most important thing in this business area is correct selection suppliers.

More and more women are trying to realize themselves in entrepreneurial activity and they are doing it well. become successful. Where to start and what areas to choose?

Read about how to open your own cafe. How to choose a location and what documents you need to have.

If you have experience working with children and enjoy it, you can open a private kindergarten. iui l detailed information about the nuances of the business and how much you can earn.

Top 20 most promising areas

In the vast majority of cases, medium and small businesses form the basis of the entire economy of the state.

The reason for this is low costs and considerable profits.

True, in many respects the success of an entrepreneur depends on his preparedness and the area of ​​business in which he decided to act.

Let's highlight the top most profitable businesses:

1. Private audit companies. The average rate of return is 16.5 percent.
2. Manual therapists. Profitability at the level of 15.3 percent.
3. Clinics (specialized). Profitability within 15 percent.
4. Services professional accountants. The average rate of return is 14.9 percent.
5. Private dental clinics. Profitability within 14.7 percent.
6. Tax calculations. Profitability up to 14.7 percent.
7. Dentist-orthodontist. The services of these specialists provide a yield of 14.4 percent.
8. The layer's services. The average rate of return fluctuates around 13.4 percent.
9. Lending individuals. The average profitability is 13.3 percent.
10. Financial management (private services). Yield up to 12.2 percent.
11. Drilling of gas and oil wells. Profitability rate at the level of 12 percent.
12. Spectacle Specialists. The yield level is within 11.5 percent.
13. Rental of housing and unnecessary premises. The average profit margin is 11.3 percent.
14. Valuation of real estate. Profitability in the region of 11.3 percent.
15. Leasing storage rooms or small warehouses. Profit up to 11 percent.
16. Insurance agencies. The rate of return is within 11 percent.
17. credit intermediaries. Profit up to 10.7 percent.
18. Consultants for investment projects. Profitability in the region of 10.7 percent.
19. Audiologists speech therapists. The rate of return is within 10.6 percent.
20. Services of a private therapist. Profit up to 10.4 percent.

No less profitable is the creation of small children's institutions. As a result of today's shortage of places in many public kindergartens, small development groups, children's clubs and private kindergartens are in great demand.

What type of business is the most profitable

One of the most relevant areas of small business in Russia is the provision of advertising services. Business owners are willing to pay a lot of money for a competent and creative marketing campaign.

In the realities of today market economy- Advertising is what is most relevant.

Small business example - own bakery

For starters, you can limit yourself to pasting services advertisements, creating various booklets and business cards, etc. Everything directly depends on the initial financial capabilities of the entrepreneur.

There are other most profitable types of business. An equally relevant type of business, and at all times, is the sale of services and goods. daily demand. People will always need food, clothing and various entertainment services. True, it is worth remembering that the higher the popularity of the chosen business area, the higher the competition will be and, as a result, the more difficulties in increasing turnover.

Conclusion

If there is no desire to come up with something new and creative, you can always pay attention to the simplest areas of small business. In particular:

• Growing products with their subsequent sale in markets or large retail chains;
• Creation of exclusive dishes and drinks that can be sold through your own store on the Internet. Similar goods can also be delivered to various offices and restaurants as business lunches.

True, it is worth remembering that the simpler the chosen business, the less they bring profit. In order to determine for yourself the most appropriate type of business (in terms of profitability and profitability), and in the future to open your own successful business project, which is guaranteed to bring profit in a short period of time, you need to carefully consider and calculate everything.

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